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2019 Bolivian political crisis

Replacement of Evo Morales by Jeanine Áñez

  • 33 min read
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The constitutional president of the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Jeanine Áñez, was designated as Person of the Year 2019 awarded by the Fides Group. The President was surprised and emphasized that
Ministry of Communication · CC BY 2.0

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Suspicions of fraud were first sparked by a sudden and unexplained 24-hour long halt in the vote count in the hours following the election. Morales then initially declared victory, but in the face of growing protests eventually proposed holding a runoff election. However, the military and the police of Bolivia, along with the Bolivian Workers' Center (COB), subsequently requested President Evo Morales to resign. He did, complaining that he was the victim of a coup. The government of Mexico offered him political asylum the following day, which he accepted. An audit of the election by the Organization of American States, requested by Morales before he fled the country, found widespread irregularities and evidence of manipulation in the voting records and recommended the election be annulled and held again. Protests continued and sometimes resulted in deaths; in several cases the security forces opened fire on protesters, most notably in the Senkata and Sacaba massacres.

Parliament voted to make opposition senator Jeanine Áñez acting president on 12 November. Although parliament did not have a quorum for the vote following a boycott by the former ruling party Movimiento al Socialismo, Bolivia's Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal endorsed Áñez's assumption of the presidency. Most of the MAS members then returned, with some assuming key positions such as Leader of the Senate. They also committed to working with the interim government towards new elections. The Bolivian Congress unanimously approved a bill on 23 November 2019 that annulled the results of the 20 October election, allowed for new elections, and prevented Evo Morales from participating in the new elections. The bill was signed into law the next day by president Áñez.

The year following the crisis saw continued political chaos and violent protests. Áñez's government began to harass Morales's supporters and charged him and some members of his party with sedition. Morales led the opposition from exile, calling for the Bolivian people to reject the new government. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Áñez repeatedly delayed holding new elections. Elections were finally held in October 2020, which were won by Luis Arce, Morales' former finance minister.

Background

2016 constitutional referendum

The Bolivian constitution allows the President and Vice President to run for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two. A 2016 referendum to increase the limit to three terms was rejected. However, in 2017 Bolivia's Supreme Court completely abolished term limits for all political offices, arguing that running for political office is a human right that could not be limited, even by the constitution. The court cited Bolivia's obligations to human rights as a signatory of the 1969 American Convention on Human Rights. The Organization of American States, which is responsible for enforcing the convention, protested against the Supreme Court's interpretation. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights clarified in 2019 that indefinite re-election should not be considered a human right. The Supreme Court also reversed its original 2017 ruling in 2023.

2019 general election and subsequent investigations

On 20 October 2019, the first round of voting for all government positions was held. After the polls closed, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal began to release the preliminary results of the presidential election. At 7:40 pm, when 83.8% of the votes had been counted, the tribunal stopped updating the preliminary count. It claimed this was because it was beginning to release the final official results, although it had still not done so by the next day. At the time that the preliminary count was stopped, Morales led with 45.3%, and his primary opponent, Carlos Mesa, had 38.2%. Less than a 10-point lead would have resulted in another round of runoff voting. At 9:25 pm, President Morales stated he was the likely winner, given that rural areas would guarantee his victory.

Although uncounted votes in rural areas were expected to favor Morales, one body observing the election—the Organization of American States (OAS)—stated that even if Morales did win outright, his lead beyond the 10-point threshold would be so negligible as to warrant a runoff anyway. The OAS expressed concern about a purported day-long gap in results reporting: after 24 hours, the updates resumed, but with a surge for Morales at the first update.

On 21 October, the Plurinational Electoral Organ reported a count, suggesting that with 95.3% of verified votes, Morales had too large of a margin above 10 points to overcome, avoiding a second run-off round, and so Morales would remain in power for a fourth term. Based on this result, along with claimed irregularities, the Bolivian opposition and protestors as well as some Western governments and observers called for an audit of the process and results, to which Morales agreed. The OAS audit of the election began on 31 October and was observed by Spain, Mexico, and Paraguay.

Protests

By 24 October, Morales began describing the actions taken against him as a coup. On 25 October, when the results were officially announced with Morales as the winner, various countries in Latin America, as well as the United States and European Union, called for the second round to go ahead regardless of the official results.

On 31 October, two deaths were announced by the government.

The third death during the protests occurred on 7 November when a 20-year-old student called Limbert Guzman was killed during clashes.

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