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2021 Bowling Green tornadoes

2021 tornadoes in Kentucky, U.S.

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Through Tornado

The first tornado touched down to the west of Rockfield, slowly becoming more intense as it crossed over KY 1083. One person was killed near Rockfield before the tornado moved on, tracking towards Bowling Green. Seven people, all members of the Brown family, were killed as the tornado completely destroyed the family's home along Moss Creek Avenue at EF3 intensity.

The second tornado formed shortly after the first, touching down to the west of the Bowling Green–Warren County Regional Airport before tracking to the south of Bowling Green, where it produced EF2 damage to areas around the Barren River. Despite heavily damaging several structures, including at the NCM Motorsports Park, the second tornado was only on the ground for five minutes and caused no injuries or deaths.

The tornadoes devastated multiple areas in and around Bowling Green, leaving over 1,500 people without power in the weeks following the event. Seventeen people were killed in total, and 63 others were injured; every casualty was a result of the initial EF3 tornado.

Meteorological synopsis

On December 8, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a slight risk of severe weather across a broad area of the Mississippi Valley. Despite the potential for a higher-end severe threat to materialize, forecasters expressed uncertainty regarding the extent of instability, degree of directional wind shear, and late timing of potential storms. The following day, the SPC noted the increased potential for organized severe thunderstorms in the region extending from southeastern Arkansas northeast into southern Indiana, upgrading that area to an enhanced risk.

An intense upper-level trough progressed across the High Plains, with robust instability and moisture return across the Mississippi Valley. The SPC expanded the enhanced risk and introduced a moderate risk area from northeastern Arkansas into southern Illinois on the morning of December 10. Forecasters indicated that atmospheric conditions favored the development of nocturnal supercells capable of producing long-tracked, strong tornadoes.

At 3:00 p.m. CST (21:00 UTC), the SPC issued a tornado watch across the highest risk area (encompassing central and eastern Arkansas, west Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi, southeastern Missouri, and southern portions of Illinois and Indiana), the first of eleven issued over subsequent hours over the middle Mississippi Valley. Initial storms developed across central Arkansas around 2:00 p.m. CST (20:00 UTC), with even weaker activity developing over central Missouri a little over 1+1⁄2 hours later; additional clusters of thunderstorms developed over southwestern Missouri (forming between Bolivar and Carthage, eventually back-building into northeastern Oklahoma) and central Arkansas (forming southwest of Hot Springs) between 5:00 and 5:30 p.m. CST (23:00–23:30 UTC).

One such storm—which formed from the initial mid-afternoon activity near Arkadelphia, Arkansas—matured into a long-lived supercell as it progressed in an unstable, deeply moist, and highly sheared environment; this cell ultimately persisted for more than 550 miles (890 km) over several hours from eastern Arkansas to northeastern Kentucky, producing two large and intense tornadoes along its track, among eleven tornadoes in total. The cell started showing signs of surface-based rotation southwest of Searcy, Arkansas, around 5:30 p.m. CST (23:30 UTC). At 5:51 p.m. CST, the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock issued the first tornado warning associated with the storm for portions of Jackson, Lawrence, White, and Woodruff counties. One of the first tornadoes associated with the storm, an EF0, touched down in western Poinsett County (near Weiner) around 6:40 p.m. CST; about fifteen minutes later, storm spotters reported a large tornado near Greenfield, prompting a PDS tornado warning for portions of Poinsett, Craighead and Mississippi counties (including areas to the south of Jonesboro).

Doppler radar analysis estimated that the supercell maintained a nearly continuous high-end rotational vorticity signature, averaging 94 mph (151 km/h; 82 kn) for approximately four hours and 20 minutes, a rarity among thunderstorms that produce mesocyclonic vorticity exceeding such speeds (averaging 1.5% of all supercells). The only velocities below said average recorded along the storm track were observed between 8:44 and 9:01 p.m. CST [02:44–3:01 UTC] as the storm crossed from Obion County, Tennessee into Hickman County, Kentucky. This time frame coincides with the start of the Western Kentucky tornado, implying the supercell underwent a mesocyclone re-strengthening phase during this period. During this intense tornado's lifetime, peak gate-to-gate velocities of 128 mph (206 km/h; 111 kn) were recorded at 9:58 p.m. CST (04:58 UTC) over northeastern Marshall County, Kentucky.

Elsewhere, multiple lines of intense storms, some featuring embedded supercells, developed across the Mississippi Valley region through the overnight hours and generated other strong and long-lived tornadoes. By the pre-dawn hours of December 11, a decrease in instability led to a gradual weakening of a line of thunderstorms stretching along the associated cold front from eastern Kentucky southward into central Alabama.

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