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2026 Akçamezra tornado

IF4 tornado in Syria and Turkey

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Through Tornado

Meteorological synopsis

Early on 3 May, the European Storm Forecast Experiment outlined a level 1/3 severe weather threat across southern Turkey and northern Syria, primarily for large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. A tornado risk was not initially anticipated, however.

A strong ridge extended from North Africa to Eastern/Central Europe, framed by two upper-level troughs to its east and west. The eastern trough, which was positioned over the Aegean Sea and Turkey, had near record-low thickness values. This trough was accompanied by a broad low-level vortex affecting most of Turkey.

A proximity sounding (Skew-T log-P diagram) constructed for the event by GFS revealed extreme atmospheric instability and vertical wind shear parameters highly favorable for supercells. The sounding indicated a moderately unstable atmosphere with mixed-layer CAPE (MLCAPE) values around 1,100 J/kg and surface-based CAPE (SBCAPE) reaching 1,415 J/kg, accompanied by steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 °C/km. Kinematic parameters were exceptionally supportive, with 0–1 km SRH reaching 348 m²/s² and 0–3 km SRH climbing to 585 m²/s².

These combined thermodynamic and dynamic variables yielded a significant tornado parameter (STP) value of 3.3 and a supercell composite parameter of 13.4. The hodograph displayed strong low-level curvature and substantial bulk shear, allowing the rapid formation of a violent tornado near the border around 15:10 local time.

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