Agustín Carstens
Mexican economist
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Through Basel, Switzerland and World Bank Group
Carstens took up his appointment as the general manager at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, where he was appointed to a five-year term, starting on 1 December 2017.
Early years
Carstens graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics from the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology (ITAM). After working as an intern in the Bank of Mexico he received a scholarship and completed both a master's degree (1983) and a doctorate in economics (1985) at the University of Chicago. His thesis advisor was Michael Mussa, former economic counselor and director of the Department of Research at the International Monetary Fund from 1991 to 2001.
He is married to Catherine Mansell, an American academic, writer and economist who has authored several books on finance and on literary fiction and nonfiction under the pen name C. M. Mayo.
In the mid-1980s Carstens returned to Mexico and rejoined the Bank of Mexico. Before turning thirty he was appointed treasurer, effectively taking charge of the national reserves. Rising through the ranks in the early 1990s, he was appointed chief of staff of chairman Miguel Mancera, and served as Director General of Economic Research at the end of the 1990s, in charge of designing the Bank's economic policy with Governor Guillermo Ortiz Martínez in the aftermath of the Tequila Crisis and the Russian default crisis. While at the bank he produced several research articles on the Mexican economy and, in particular, co-authored an analysis of the Mexican Crisis along with then Deputy Governor Francisco Gil Díaz, which suggests the Mexican crisis was to a large extent an avoidable run on the Mexican peso brought about by external circumstances and political problems.
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International Monetary Fund
After many years at the Bank of Mexico, Carstens took a position at the IMF and served as the deputy managing director – one of three deputies reporting to the director and the board— from 1 August 2003 to 16 October 2006.
Carstens left the IMF to coordinate the economic policy program of Felipe Calderón, then president-elect of Mexico, who appointed him as secretary of finance shortly after the election was validated.
Secretary of Finance
On 26 March 2007, Carstens was additionally appointed new chairman of the joint World Bank/IMF Development Committee, a position customarily occupied by a developing country finance minister.
As secretary, Carstens took the unconventional decision to hedge Mexico's oil earnings for 2009 against possible price falls, leading to an $8 billion profit for the country.
In the aftermath of the 2007 popular protests against rising food prices, Carstens regarded high food prices as a positive driver for investment in agriculture.
Bank of Mexico
Carstens was nominated to the Bank of Mexico on 9 December 2009 by President Felipe Calderón, replacing 12-year veteran Guillermo Ortiz, who reduced inflation from double digits to 4 percent by the end of 2009. He was confirmed by the Senate on 15 December 2009 with 81 votes in favor and 19 votes against.
Economic views
He identifies five characteristics of business cycles in emerging economies that distinguish them from those in industrialized nations:
- Business cycles in emerging economies are strongly tied to those in industrialized nations.
- Cycles in emerging economies are more volatile
- Volatility of emerging economies can be affected by additional factors that don't affect industrialized economies, such as price fluctuations
- Rapid capital outflows made possible under corporate globalization can have severely harmful effects on emerging economies
- Emerging economies are subject to the problems associated with exchange-rate regimes
Carstens claims that the solution to these problems is for emerging nations to:
- Adopt more open trade and investment regimes
- Allow market control of interest rates
- Ensure that their banks are robust enough to handle severe macroeconomic changes
- Enact structural changes such as central bank autonomy, privatization of production, reduced regulations over labor markets and reduced dependence on foreign savings
Carstens has been a critic of cryptocurrencies, calling them “a bubble,” a “Ponzi scheme” and an “environmental disaster,” but has left the door open to some uses in the future, although he does not see stablecoins as the answer.
Other activities
Carstens currently serves as the International Advisory Board Member of the Global Finance & Technology Network.