Climate change in the Caribbean

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

Extreme weather events

An increase in air and sea surface temperatures is expected to lead to the formation of stronger tropical cyclones. Warm air sea surface temperatures are key factors in the development of hurricanes. As temperatures rise, the likelihood of a storm intensifying into a hurricane also increases. This warmth provides the energy that fuels the hurricane's development, creating stronger, more frequent hurricanes.

In September 2017, the United States National Hurricane Center reported that the North Atlantic basin was highly active with four tropical storms forming, all of which developed into hurricanes. They noted a record high number of tropical storms that transitioning into hurricanes that year. Among these storms, Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria struck the Caribbean islands. Both hurricanes reached Category 5 status. The average temperature in Caribbean waters is 27°C (81°F). NASA reported that when hurricane Irma formed, the sea surface temperature in the Caribbean was 30°C (86°F). The required temperature for the development of a major storm is suggested to be higher than 27 °C (80 °F).

Hurricanes classified as category 5 have wind speeds exceeding 253 kilometres per hour (157 mph). Hurricane Maria recorded maximum sustained winds of 281.6 kilometres per hour (175 mph), while Hurricane Irma reached maximum sustained winds of 297.7 kilometres per hour (185 mph). In addition to their extreme winds, Hurricanes Irma and Maria produced significantly more rainfall than previous storms. Warmer air temperatures, allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which leads to increased precipitation. Multiple sources indicate that the recent strengthening and increased precipitation of hurricanes can be attributed to climate change.

Hurricane Irma and Maria had a total of 510 millimetres (20 in) of rainfall. In Cuba, Hurricane Irma sustained precipitation was 270 millimetres (10.8 in) per hour. In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria had a sustained precipitation of 164 millimetres (6.44 in) per hour.

Increased temperature has caused repeated and prolonged droughts, an increase in the number of very hot days, intense rainfall events causing repeated localized flooding, and rising sea levels that consume the beaches on which tourism in the region depends. A temperature rise of 2°C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by 4–5 times in the Bahamas, 3 times in Cuba and Dominican Republic. Even to the richest nations in the region, it takes 6 years to recover from such event.

Ecosystems

Coral reefs are crucial to the Caribbean Ocean and play an essential role in the ecosystem. They provide critical habitat for marine life, serve as a natural barrier against storms, and significantly contribute to the economy through tourism and fishing. Additionally, coral is utilized as a natural resource by local communities, being used in the production of cement and aggregate.

The rise in water surface temperature has had a significant impact on coral reefs. In 2005 a model-based assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of human-induced climate change on the Caribbean. The findings of this study suggest that increasing sea surface temperatures have led to widespread coral bleaching. Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose their symbiotic algae and photosynthetic pigments, leading to a white appearance. This loss of pigmentation can result from various stressors, including changes in water temperature, light, salinity, or nutrient levels. This is an effect of the change in climate because of the rise in water temperature in the seawater.

The study indicated that the increase in sea surface temperature was attributed to human activity. It concluded that it is highly unlikely that natural climate variability alone could explain this event. Their model indicated that, without human influence, such an event would occur only once every 1,000 years.

Sea level rise

Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to contribute to coastal erosion. According to NASA, sea levels are projected to increase by 0.3–1 metre (1–4 ft) by 2050. By 2100, sea levels in the Caribbean are anticipated to rise by 1.4 metres.

This rise in sea level could significantly impact coastal communities in the Caribbean, particularly those located less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. It is estimated that between 29 and 32 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean could be affected because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be the most impacted, as at least 80% of the total land area lies below the sea level.

The islands provide crucial nesting sites and habitats for sea turtles, which are all at risk of endangerment due to coastal erosion and environmental changes throughout their life cycles. Damage to the beaches can negatively affect turtles that nest in the Caribbean. Additionally, sea level rise can influence where sea turtles choose to nest and alter nesting behavior.

Coastal losses in the 22 largest cities of Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to range between US$940 million and US$1.2 billion. Key sources of income, particularly tourism, will be impacted, as many major tourist attractions, such as beaches and hotels, are located along the coast. A study conducted in 2004 reported that 12 million tourists had visited the Caribbean that year.

Impacts on people

Multiple sources indicate that the Caribbean is facing significant challenges in addressing climate change. The long history of colonialism, particularly focused on the extraction of goods like sugar, has hindered the economic development of these islands. As a result, many Caribbean nations find it difficult to compete in the current global economy. This longstanding colonial legacy has created a cycle of dependency, leaving many Caribbean economies reliant on global powers.

The damages expected from climate change will weaken the economy of various islands as it will target some of the major sources of income, like tourism. It has been estimated that 25% to 35% of the Caribbean's economy relies on tourism. Tourism could be significantly reduced if less tourists travel to the Caribbean due to increasing damage from hurricanes in the next century. It is expected that costs from hurricanes are expected to range between US$350 million to $550 million or about 11% to 17% of the current GDP annually. The Bahamas, Haiti, and Jamaica are expected to be the islands most affected by a decline in tourism. Additionally, agricultural and rural areas in the Caribbean will face significant challenges due to climate change. By 2025 the damage costs in these regions could reach approximately US$3 million per year, and by 2100, they may increase to between US$12 million – $15 million.

Adaptation and mitigation

In Central America, and the Caribbean, climate change poses significant threats to agriculture, as the region experiences frequent droughts, cyclones and the impacts of the El Niño- Southern-Oscillation. There are various adaptation strategies available, and these can differ greatly from one country to another. Many of the adjustments made are primarily focused on agriculture or water supply. Some effective adaptive strategies include restoring degraded lands, rearranging land uses across different areas, diversifying livelihoods, adjusting sowing dates, improving water harvest techniques, and even migration. However, the lack of available resources remains a barrier to more substantial adaptations, meaning that the changes implemented are often incremental.

One solution that researchers propose for reducing CO₂ emissions is to increase the market price of carbon. By raising the price of carbon, signals can be sent to consumers to decrease their consumption of carbon-intensive goods and services. It also encourages producers to seek alternatives to carbon-intensive inputs and creates market incentives for innovation and the adoption of low-carbon products and processes.

Addressing CO₂ emissions is crucial for slowing down climate change in the long term, the true costs of climate change remain uncertain. This uncertainty stems from potential future technological advancements, the irreversible nature of policies aimed at tackling climate change, and the existence of non-market goods and services that are vulnerable to its effects. Researchers emphasize that the primary challenge in addressing climate change is the lack of enforceable policies.

By country and territory

Grenada

Climate change in Grenada has received significant public and political attention in Grenada. As of 2013, the mitigation of its effects has been high on the agenda of the Government of Grenada, which seeks to set an example through innovation and green technology.

Haiti

Haiti's position as a southern island nation makes it particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Factors that make Haiti more vulnerable than other Caribbean nations, such as the Dominican Republic, are its higher population density, extensive deforestation, extreme soil erosion, and high income-inequality. Several effects of increased intensity of tropical storms, depleted coral reefs, and desertification. Since 1960 the mean annual rainfall has decreased by 5mm per month per decade, and mean temperatures have increased by 0.45 °C. The combination of increased temperatures and decreased rainfall will likely lead to the intensification of drought conditions, especially in the centre of the country. According to the IPCC climate change predictions for 2050, more than 50% of Haiti will be in danger of desertification. The frequency of hot days and nights has increased, while the frequency of cold days and nights have steadily decreased. Sea-level rise is projected to rise between 0.13 and 0.56 m by 2090. The US Climate Change Science program estimates that with each 1 °C increase in temperature, hurricane rainfall will increase by 6–17% and hurricane wind speeds will increase by 1–8%.

Puerto Rico

Climate change has had large impacts on the ecosystems and landscapes of the US territory Puerto Rico. According to a 2019 report by Germanwatch, Puerto Rico is the most affected by climate change. The territory's energy consumption is mainly derived from imported fossil fuels.

The Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC) noted severe changes in seven categories: air temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events, tropical storms and hurricanes, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise.

Climate change also affects Puerto Rico's population, the economy, human health, and the number of people forced to migrate.

Surveys have shown climate change is a matter of concern for most Puerto Ricans. The territory has enacted laws and policies concerning climate change mitigation and adaptation, including the use of renewable energy. Local initiatives are working toward mitigation and adaptation goals, and international aid programs support reconstruction after extreme weather events and encourage disaster planning.

US Virgin Islands

Climate change in the United States Virgin Islands encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. territory of the United States Virgin Islands. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has noted a variety of expected consequences of this phenomenon.