Cyclone Megh

When Megh passed near Socotra, residents were just beginning to return after the previous cyclone, and many had to evacuate again. Additional heavy rainfall and high winds lashed the island, which destroyed 500 homes and damaged another 3,000. The consecutive storms damaged 785 fishing boats, left 80% of the roads impassible, and caused an island-wide power outage. Megh killed 18 people on Socotra and injured another 60. The heavy damage on the island prompted nearby countries and international organizations to deliver relief goods and medical teams. Later, Megh brought torrential rainfall and high waves to northern Somalia, killing livestock and damaging schools. The storm's final landfall in Yemen marked little rainfall or effects.

Meteorological history

On November 3, an area of scattered convection persisted about 860 km (530 mi) southwest of Mumbai, India, in the central Arabian Sea. The thunderstorms were associated with a weak and broad circulation, located in an area of low wind shear and warm water temperatures over 29 °C (84 °F), both favorable conditions. At the time, the system was located east of Cyclone Chapala, which had recently struck Yemen. On November 4, a distinct low-pressure area developed in association with a mid- to upper-level low, while the region was in an active Madden–Julian oscillation phase favorable for storm development. The circulation became better defined as outflow increased, amplified by an anticyclone over the system. Based on the organization, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified the low as a depression at 00:00 UTC on November 5. About six hours later, the IMD upgraded the system to a deep depression, and at 12:00 UTC that day the agency upgraded it to a cyclonic storm, naming it Megh. Earlier that day, the American-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories on the storm as Tropical Cyclone 05A while the storm was about 1,120 km (700 mi) east of Socotra island offshore Yemen.

Upon forming, Megh was moving to the west-southwest due to a ridge to the north. While Megh was in its formative stages, it developed broken rainbands that swirled into the circulation center, which was located beneath the blossoming convection. On November 6, dry air began to become entrained into the circulation, although the unfavorable conditions did not disrupt the center. Instead, the convection became better organized, developing into a central dense overcast, as well as the beginnings of an eye feature. As the storm continued to develop, the radius of maximum winds shrank, resulting in a smaller storm than the previous Cyclone Chapala. At 12:00 UTC on November 7, the JTWC upgraded Megh to the equivalent of a hurricane after a small defined eye became evident. The storm began rapid deepening that day due to the continued low shear and warm water temperatures, and the convection became more symmetric and circular. Such intensification was not anticipated by tropical cyclone forecast models, which emphasized that the external conditions, such as dry air from the west, would be unfavorable. At 06:00 UTC on November 7, the IMD upgraded Megh to a severe cyclonic storm, and just nine hours later upgraded it to a very severe cyclonic storm – the equivalent to hurricane intensity with 3 minute winds of 120 km/h (75 mph).

Cyclone Megh continued to rapidly intensify while approaching the island of Socotra. It developed a small eye just 7.4 km (4.6 mi) in diameter by early on November 8, along with a convective core just 280 km (170 mi) in diameter. At 03:00 UTC that day, the IMD upgraded the system to an extremely severe cyclonic storm, and three hours later estimated peak 3 minute winds of 175 km/h (110 mph). At the same time, the JTWC estimated peak 1 minute winds of 205 km/h (125 mph). Since accurate record keeping began in the basin in 1990, this marked the first time in the Arabian Sea that there were two cyclones in one season with 1 minute winds of at least 185 km/h (115 km/h). Between 06:00–12:00 UTC on November 8, the eye of Megh passed just north of Socotra, with the resulting land interaction causing the eyewall to disappear and for the winds to diminish. After exiting the island, the cyclone began weakening further due to cooler water temperatures and drier air from the Arabian Peninsula to the northwest. Early on November 9, the center of Megh passed 57 km (35 mi) north of Cape Guardafui, and further land interaction with Somalia to the south increasingly degraded the storm's structure. At 00:00 UTC that day, Megh weakened into a very severe cyclonic storm.

After passing just north of Somaliland, Megh progressed westward into the Gulf of Aden, the waterway between Somaliland and the Arabian Peninsula. This marked the first time on record when two storms entered the body of water in the same year. By 12:00 UTC on November 9, the center was beginning to become exposed from the convection due to the unfavorable conditions. Throughout the day, the structure rapidly deteriorated as the storm curved to the west-northwest. At 21:00 UTC on November 9, Megh weakened further into a severe cyclonic storm, and degraded further to a cyclonic storm by six hours later. While just offshore Yemen, the circulation slowed and turned to the northeast, after the ridge to the north receded eastward. At 06:00 UTC on November 10 the storm weakened to a deep depression, and three hours later Megh made landfall in southwestern Yemen northeast of Zinjibar, with estimated winds of 55 km/h (35 mph). The structure eroded significantly over land, prompting the JTWC to discontinue advisories. The circulation continued inland, and Megh degenerated into a low-pressure area by 18:00 UTC on November 10.