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Cyclone Nora

Tropical cyclone in Australia in 2018

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Through Atmospheric pressure, Pascal (unit) and Extreme weather

Nora was responsible for major impacts across large parts of Far North Queensland. Strong winds knocked down many trees and power lines in the towns of Pormpuraaw, Kowanyama and Mapoon, blocking roads and cutting power to more than 500 homes. Damage was caused to houses, council buildings, personal property and other buildings. Very heavy rainfall occurred across most of Cape York Peninsula and Far North Queensland. Many communities became isolated by floodwaters after roads were either blocked or damaged. Extreme rainfall fell in parts of Queensland's east coast, including 593.0 mm (23.35 in) in just 24 hours in Port Douglas. Flash flooding occurred in Cairns as a result of the intense rainfall, including in car parks, shopping centres and hotels. The torrential rain caused landslides that blocked highways in the region. Many people had to be rescued by emergency services after becoming trapped by floodwaters. Agricultural losses in crops and livestock, as well as damage to infrastructure, were also sustained when farms were flooded. The total economic impact of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is estimated to have exceeded AU$32.5 million (US$25 million).

Meteorological history

Several atmospheric features and climate drivers which are typically conducive to tropical cyclogenesis were present in Australian longitudes during March 2018. In early- to mid-March, a monsoon trough developed to the north of Australia, stretching from the eastern Indonesian archipelago to the northern Coral Sea. Although associated convective activity decreased somewhat as the monsoon trough began to weaken, this was offset by the interaction of significant cross-equatorial flow from the Northern Hemisphere with a large area of strong southeasterly wind from the Australian continent. The convergence of these winds provided ample rotational energy for the development of any low-pressure systems in the region. Reinforced by the effects of a westwards-propagating Rossby wave, the southeasterly wind flow contributed to enhanced atmospheric circulation over the tropical waters. In addition, the presence of a weak but discernible pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent supported the generation of cloudy weather and increased atmospheric instability in the region.

Monsoonal activity began to restrengthen later in the month, and on 19 March the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) noted that a tropical low had developed in the vicinity of the Torres Strait, embedded within the monsoon trough. The newly formed tropical low moved quickly to the west-northwest along the southwestern coast of New Guinea, and was centred just off the coast of Indonesia's Pulau Dolak island by 00:00 UTC on 20 March. The system then began to track slowly southwestwards across the eastern Arafura Sea while its central barometric pressure steadily deepened. At 18:30 UTC, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert, and indicated that the likelihood of rapid intensification over the following days was high. On 22 March, the tropical low assumed a course towards the east, bringing it into an environment which was increasingly favourable for further development. Fuelled by sea-surface temperatures of approximately 29 °C (84 °F), the low-level circulation centre quickly consolidated as convective banding wrapped into the developing system. The JTWC indicated that the system had reached tropical storm strength on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale at 06:00 UTC, and gave it the designation Tropical Cyclone 16P. Six hours later, the system was officially upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone and was assigned the name Nora by the BOM.

As Nora passed slowly to the north of the Wessel Islands in a weak steering environment, the already supportive environmental conditions became extremely favourable for strengthening. A co-located anticyclone in the upper troposphere provided excellent poleward and equatorward outflow channels for the system in an environment of low vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content had both become favourably high. Nora began to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 2 strength on the Australian scale at 00:00 UTC on 23 March as a primitive eye began to emerge on visible-light satellite imagery. Shortly thereafter, Nora turned southeastwards under the influence of a strengthening high-pressure ridge to the east. The BOM upgraded the storm to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone at 09:00 UTC, just after one-minute sustained winds had reached the equivalent of minimal hurricane intensity. Over the following three hours, Nora underwent explosive intensification, with maximum ten-minute sustained winds increasing by an average of 5 knots (9.3 km/h; 5.8 mph) every hour. Nora peaked in intensity as it entered the Gulf of Carpentaria, reaching high-end Category 3 severe tropical cyclone status on the Australian scale. The BOM estimated ten-minute sustained winds to be at 155 km/h (96 mph), gusting to 220 km/h (140 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 960 hPa (28.35 inHg). Concurrently, the JTWC indicated that one-minute sustained winds had reached 185 km/h (115 mph), equivalent to a Category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Shortly after reaching peak intensity, Nora began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, causing the intensification trend to cease. Despite the very warm waters in the Gulf of Carpentaria, diminishing upper-level outflow caused the system to begin weakening by 03:00 UTC on 24 March. Drier air from Cape York Peninsula also became entrained into the circulation as Nora approached the coast, contributing to the storm's decline in intensity. Nora made landfall in Far North Queensland at about 13:00 UTC on 24 March as a low-end Category 3 system, approximately 55 km (34 mi) north of the town of Pormpuraaw. After moving ashore, the cyclone turned generally southwards, and tracked along the coastline of the Gulf Country. The system was downgraded to a tropical low by the BOM at 06:00 UTC the following day as it approached the mouth of the Gilbert River. The development of a competing steering environment associated with a strengthening ridge over central Australia caused Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nora to become quasi-stationary from 25 to 27 March. The system's remnant low-pressure system re-emerged over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on 28 March, but was unable to restrengthen. It dissipated near Mornington Island later that day.

Nora was the storm to make landfall on Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria coast since Tropical Cyclone Abigail in 2001. It was also the strongest tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria since Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica in 2006.

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