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Doctrinal paradox

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Through Preference (economics) and Sociology

Consider a community voting on road repairs asked three questions; the repairs go ahead if all three answers are 'Yes'. The questions are: "Are the roads important?", "Is the weather right for road repair?" and "Are there available funds for repairs?" Imagine that three (non-overlapping) groups of 20% of people vote 'No' for each question, and everyone else votes 'Yes'. Then each question has an 80% agreement of 'Yes', so the repairs go ahead. However, now consider the situation where the community are asked one question: "Are all three conditions (importance, weather and funds) met?" Now 60% of people disagree with one of these conditions, so only 40% agree on a 'Yes' vote. In this case, the repairs do not go ahead. Thus the road repair team gets different feedback depending on how they poll their community.

In general, any decision that is not unanimous can be logically self-contradictory.

Overview

The doctrinal paradox shows it is difficult to construct a model of public opinion simply by identifying the majority opinion on multiple questions. This is because contradictory conceptions of a group can emerge depending on the type of questioning that is chosen.

To see how, imagine that a three-member court must decide whether someone is liable for a breach of contract. For example, a lawn caretaker is accused of violating a contract not to mow over the land-owner's roses. The jurors must decide which of the following propositions are true:

  • P: the defendant performed a certain action (i.e. did the caretaker mow over the roses?);
  • Q: the defendant had a contractual obligation not to do that action (i.e. was there a contract not to mow over the roses?);
  • C: the defendant is liable.

Additionally, all judges accept the proposition C≡P∧Q. In other words, the judges agree that a defendant should be liable if and only if the two propositions, P and Q, are both true.

Each judge could make consistent (non-contradictory) judgments, and the paradox will still emerge. Most judges could think P is true, and most judges could think Q is true. In this example, that means they would vote that the caretaker probably mowed over the roses, and that the contract did indeed forbid that action. This suggests the caretaker is liable.

At the same time, most judges may think that P and Q are not both true at once. In this example, that means most judges conclude the caretaker is not liable. The table above illustrates how majority decisions can contradict (because the judges vote in favor of the premises, and yet reject the conclusion).

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