Ecological triage

Methods

Ecological triage is not simple, dichotomous decision making. It involves a complex array of factors including assumptions, mathematical calculations, and planning for uncertainties. When assessing an ecosystem, there are a myriad of factors conservationists consider, but there are also variables which they are unable to account for. Conservationists and scientists often have incomplete understanding of population dynamics, impacts of external threats, and efficacy of different conservation tactics. It is important to incorporate these unknowns when assessing a population or ecosystem. By following the principles of triage, we are able to allow for the efficient allocation of resources as conservationists continue to develop the best options for ecological preservation and restoration.

Info-Gap Decision Model

Due to the multitude of variables within a population or ecosystem, it is important to address the unknown factors which may not initially be accounted for. Many ecologists utilize the Info-gap decision theory, which focuses on strategies that are most likely to succeed despite uncertainties. This process is composed of three main elements:

1. Mathematical calculations which assess performance as a result of management. This step determines the number of management options, evaluates the existing subpopulations, estimates the management period, and assesses the impact of inaction.
2. Expectations of performance. To evaluate performance, an extinction-investment curve is utilized. It evaluates data regarding the probability of species extinction (without intervention), budget allocation, and budget required to halve probability of extinction. This step sets forth a threshold below which performance is considered unacceptable.
3. A model describing uncertainty. The uncertainty model examines the possible values which may render the extinction-investment curve incorrect. It considers how factors may vary in dynamic situations and creates a function of uncertainty.