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P(doom)

Probability of existentially catastrophic outcomes in AI

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Woodcut of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse made c. 1498 in Germany. From the Latin edition of Dürer's Apocalypse series printed 1511. Chester Beatty Library WEp 0021
Albrecht Dürer · Public domain

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Originating as a shorthand for communication in the rationalist community and among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4, as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio began to warn of the risks of AI. In a 2023 survey, AI researchers were asked to estimate the probability that future AI advancements could lead to human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment within the next 100 years. The mean value from the responses was 14.4%, with a median value of 5%.

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