Returns-based style analysis

Concept

RBSA uses the capital asset pricing model as its backbone, of which William Sharpe was also a primary contributor. In CAPM, a single index is often used as a proxy to represent the return of the market. The first step is to extend this to allow for multiple market proxy indices, thus:

${\displaystyle R_t^m=\alpha +\sum _{i=1}^I{\beta }^i{R}_t^i+{ϵ}_t}$

where:

• ${\displaystyle R_t^m}$ is the time stream of historical manager returns,
• ${\displaystyle R_t^i}$ is a set of time streams of market indices or factors,
• ${\displaystyle I}$ is the number of indices or factors used in analysis,
• ${\displaystyle \alpha }$ is the intercept of the regression equation, often interpreted as manager skill,
• ${\displaystyle {ϵ}_t}$ is the error, to be minimized using ordinary least squares regression.

The beta coefficients are interpreted as exposures to the types of market returns represented by each chosen index. Since these exposures theoretically represent percentages of a replicating portfolio, we often apply the following constraints:

${\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^I{\beta }_i=1;{\beta }_i\ge 0\mathrm{\forall }i.}$

These constraints may be relaxed to allow for shorting, or if factors rather than indices are used; this modification brings the model closer to arbitrage pricing theory than to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

The second improvement upon the simple CAPM construct suggested by Sharpe was to apply the model to rolling time intervals. Data during these intervals is exponentially weighted to increase the importance of data collected more recently. This addition allows for the alpha and beta coefficients to change over the historic period used in the analysis, an expected property of active management.

Application

Application of the model involves repeated regressions over overlapping windows to compute an alpha and vector of betas for each, resulting in a statistical picture of a manager's style. Since 1992, this computation has been a feature of mutual fund analysis software produced by companies such as LIPPER, MPI, Zephyr Associates, and Morningstar. This computation is also available as a Web API.

The exposures calculated by RBSA software can provide various pictures of a fund's evolution, both in isolation and in comparison to similar strategies. This analysis is usually done to better understand a fund over an explicitly chosen period of time.

Since Sharpe's original formulation of the model, additional research and development has added to RBSA. A widely accepted addition has been the use of a centered window for historical periods. For example, a 36-month window calculating the exposures for January 2002 would reference data 18 months before and 18 months after, spanning the interval from July 2000 through June 2003. This provides for more accurate historical analysis and addresses a lag in the model's detection of style changes. However, this modification has been criticized for being unrealistic, since a centered window cannot be applied to today's return without knowing the future. The increased accuracy has usually been deemed worth the loss of generality.

Other generalizations to the model have been developed to do away with the fixed window constraint, such as models that employ Kalman filters to allow for more general time dilation. These methods still require assumed restrictions on the evolution of exposures, such as a return to normality assumption, or a fixed turnover parameter such as in Dynamic Style Analysis. These models are usually considered separate from classically defined ‘RBSA’, though they continue to analyze style based on returns.

Comparison with holdings-based analysis

Similar information describing a fund's investment style can be aggregated by comprehensive analysis of a fund's holdings. Returns-based analysis, which assesses the behavior of an investment vehicle versus known investment products (i.e., indices) is intended to be used in a complementary fashion with holdings-based analysis, which analyzes an investment vehicle by reviewing the actual underlying securities, funds and other instruments or portfolios that comprise the vehicle. For example, consider a mutual fund that holds ten 'large value' US stocks. Returns-based analysis would analyze the returns of the fund itself, and by comparing them to US equity indices, may determine that the fund is heavily exposed to the large-growth space. Holdings-based analysis would examine the fund's stated holdings, and provide the names and percentages of the stocks in question. Given that returns-based analysis is based on historical returns, it is used to comment on overall fund or portfolio behavior, whereas holdings-based analysis focuses entirely on the composition of a fund or portfolio at any given moment.