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Safety of cycling infrastructure

Overview of bicycle safety concerns

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Through Berlin, Montreal and Traffic light

However, the implications for road safety of cycle tracks at intersections is disputed. Studies generally show an increase in collisions at junctions, especially where cyclists are travelling in the direction opposite to the flow of traffic (e.g. on two-way cycle tracks). Protected intersection designs generally improve safety records over non-protected junction types.

A 2006 report by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program in the US concludes that "bicycle safety data are difficult to analyze, mostly because bicycle trip data (and thus accident probability per trip) are hard to uncover". One major reason for the inability to draw definite conclusion may be that facilities with different risks are often categorized together so that off-road paths – paved or unpaved, bicycle-only or multi-use – were lumped together, as found by research at the Cycling in Cities program at the University of British Columbia.

Safety in numbers effect

A study by Peter L. Jacobsen found that as cycling and walking levels increase, the chance that a given cyclist will be struck by a motor vehicle actually decreases. This pattern is consistent across communities of varying size, from specific intersections to cities and countries, and across time periods. Jacobsen found that doubling the number of cyclists on the road tends to bring about a one-third drop in the per-cyclist frequency of a crash with a motor vehicle. By the same token, tripling the rate of cycling cuts the crash rate in half. A study of the accident impacts of re-engineering bicycle crossings in the Swedish city of Gothenburg appears to corroborate those findings by attributing collision rate reductions in part to significant increases in cyclist volumes at the treated sites. Studies have demonstrated that cities with high levels of cycling tend to have better traffic safety records for all road users. However, the same study also suggests that the 'safety in numbers' effect is not as important in improving safety records as building cycling infrastructure. Improving bike infrastructure with more separated facilities leads to lower fatalities and more safety for all road users.

Furthermore, countries which have higher levels of cycling have lower fatality rates for cyclists than countries which do not. The table below shows the modal split share for cycling compared with the cycling fatality rate in the Netherlands, Germany and the United States.

A unpublished paper from the Helsinki City Planning Department reported that the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark, known for cycle networks and one-way cycle tracks, had the lowest rates of cyclist fatalities, while countries without such extensive networks such as Great Britain and Italy reported higher rates.

There is evidence that one of the main factors influencing the individual safety of cyclists is the number of cyclists using the roads, commonly called the safety in numbers effect. Cycling facilities increase the perception of safety, leaving aside the evidence supporting or detracting from their actual risk. Cycling increases on routes with cycling facilities, particularly if they are separated cycle tracks. With greater numbers of cyclists in relation to motorists, the safety in number effect is seen.

Detractors argue that the most prominent examples of "successful" cycle networks were implemented in towns that already had significant numbers of cyclists. In the Netherlands, for example, drivers know to expect a high volume of cyclist traffic and bicycle paths are widespread and (in the cities) closed to scooters. Due to this expectation, some argue, the number of car-bike collisions with serious consequences is not alarmingly high in the Netherlands. In such cases, it is speculated that an existing large cycling population might already exert a "safety in numbers" effect, and it is this, rather than their diversion onto off-road tracks, that accounts for the better safety record. More people might start cycling if the perceived safety of doing so improved sufficiently.

Bhatia and Wier caution against the "Safety in Numbers" hypothesis, because it is unsubstantiated. The claim that larger numbers changes motorist behaviour is judged as premature and the authors urge better research into the topic. A 2019 study of the relation between bicycling rates and road safety concluded that 'more bicyclists on the road is not as important as the infrastructure we build for them'.

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