Threatcasting

Once inputs are explored for impact and application, participants create a science fiction story (science fiction prototyping) based ten years in the future to add context around human activity. Science Fiction Prototyping consists of a future story about a person in a place doing a thing. The threatcasting process results in creation of many potential futures scenarios—some futures are desirable while others are not. Identifying both types of futures (desirable and undesirable) will help the participant recognize which future to aim toward, and which to avoid. Utilizing the scenarios, participants plot actions necessary in the present and at various intervals working toward the ten year future scenario. These actions will help participants understand how to empower or disrupt the target future scenario. Flags (warning events) are also determined in order to map societal indicators onto the recommended path toward the targeted future. When identified flags appear in society, threatcasting participants map these back to the original forecast to see whether or not they are on track toward the target future scenario.

Origins

The notion of threatcasting can be traced back to Brian David Johnson, an applied futurist, who first began using threatcasting, also referred to as futurecasting, in 2011 and to George Hemingway of the Stratalis Group, who pioneered notion of futurecasting for corporate strategy and innovation industrial markets, including mining in the same year. Early adopters of threatcasting include the United States Air Force Academy, the Government of California, and the Army Cyber Institute at West Point Military Academy. Official use of the term threatcasting is attributed to Brian David Johnson in a 2014 Gazette article “Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at future of firefighting.” and to George Hemingway, who referenced the same in a 2013 article on "Futurecasting the mining industry".