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2003 Pacific hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation and High-pressure area

Despite the overall lack of activity, the season produced an unusually large number of tropical cyclones that affected Mexico, with eight tropical cyclones making landfall on either side of Mexico, which was the second highest on record. Tropical Storm Carlos struck Oaxaca in late June, resulting in nine fatalities. In late August, Hurricane Ignacio struck the Baja California peninsula, killing four people and inflicting US$21 million in damage. In September, Hurricane Marty affected the same areas as Ignacio, and was responsible for 12 casualties and US$100 million in damage, making Marty the costliest and deadliest storm of the season. In October, hurricanes Olaf and Nora struck western Mexico as tropical depressions, causing slight damage and one casualty.

Activity in the Central Pacific was below average, with only one tropical depression forming in the basin and one hurricane entering the basin from the East Pacific. In mid-August, Hurricane Jimena passed just to the south of Hawaiʻi; it was the first storm to directly threaten Hawaii in several years. Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Guillermo moved into the basin on August 12, prior dissipating the following day.

Seasonal forecasts

On May 16, 2003, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN, National Meteorological Service) released their prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. A total of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes was forecast. Three later days, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its Central Pacific hurricane season forecast, calling for a slightly below-average level of activity due to the expected development of La Niña. La Niña conditions generally restrict tropical cyclone development in the Northeast Pacific, which is the opposite of its effect in the Atlantic. On June 12, 2003, NOAA issued a forecast for the East Pacific hurricane season – the first time it had done so. The scientists expected that La Niña conditions would develop, and predicted a 50 percent chance of below normal activity and a 40 percent chance of near normal activity.

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