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2003 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Although the bounds of the season are typically from June 1 to November 30, the season began early with the formation of Subtropical Storm Ana on April 20, and it ended relatively late on December 11 with the dissipation of Tropical Storm Peter. In early September, Hurricane Fabian struck Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, where it was the worst hurricane since 1926; on the island it caused four deaths and $300 million in damage (2003 USD). Hurricane Juan caused considerable destruction to Nova Scotia, particularly Halifax, as a Category 2 hurricane, the first hurricane of significant strength to hit the province since 1893. Additionally, Hurricanes Claudette and Erika struck Texas and Mexico, respectively, as minimal hurricanes. In December, Tropical Storm Odette struck the Dominican Republic, and Tropical Storm Peter formed in the eastern portion of the basin.

Seasonal forecasts

Pre-season outlook

On May 19, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters issued a 55% probability of above normal activity. The forecasters predicted 11–15 tropical storms, 6–9 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2–4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. The above normal activity predicted was due to the likelihood of La Niña developing in the season.

Noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray on April 4 predicted twelve named storms, with eight reaching hurricane strength and three of the eight reaching Category 3 strength. The prediction issued on May 30 was similar, increasing the named storms to fourteen. The synoptic pattern of the season prior to June 1 resembled other previous seasons, with the 1952, 1954, 1964, 1966, and 1998 seasons considered the best analogs for the season. The prediction also included a 68% probability for a hurricane landfall along the United States.

Mid-season outlook

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had maintained his previous prediction; with an active start of the season, the rest of the season was forecast to have been only slightly above average, due to an anticipated overall less favorable environment across the Atlantic Ocean. A day later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 60% probability of above normal activity, with 12–15 named storms, 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes expected.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6–14 tropical storms, 4–8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1–3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.

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