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2009 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Pre-season forecasts issued by Colorado State University (CSU) called for fourteen named storms and seven hurricanes, of which three were expected to attain major hurricane status. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) later issued its initial forecast, which predicted nine to fourteen named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. After several revisions in the projected number of named storms, both agencies lowered their forecasts by the middle of the season.

Several storms made landfall or directly affected land outside of the United States. Tropical Storm Ana brought substantial rainfall totals to many of the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, which led to minor street flooding. Hurricane Bill delivered gusty winds and rain to the island of Newfoundland, while Tropical Storm Danny affected the U.S. state of North Carolina, and Erika affected the Lesser Antilles as a poorly organized tropical system. Hurricane Fred affected the Cape Verde Islands as a developing tropical cyclone and Tropical Storm Grace briefly impacted the Azores, becoming the farthest northeast forming storm on record. The season's final storm, Ida, affected portions of Central America before bringing significant rainfall to the Southeast United States as an extratropical cyclone.

Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale) and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) Index of 96.1. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACE numbers. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 39 mph (63 km/h), which is the threshold for tropical storm intensity. NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 10, 2008, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2009 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 125). On April 7, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued an updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting near-average activity (12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100), citing the possible cause as the high probability of a weak El Niño forming during the season. On May 21, 2009, NOAA issued their forecast for the season, predicting near or slightly above average activity, (9 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 of Category 3 or higher).

Midseason outlooks

On June 2, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued another updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting slightly below average activity (11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 85). Also on June 2, 2009, the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU COAPS) issued its first ever Atlantic hurricane season forecast. The FSU COAPS forecast predicted 8 named storms, including 4 hurricanes, and an ACE Index of 65. On June 18, 2009, the UK Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of 6 tropical storms in the July to November period with a 70% chance that the number would be in the range 3 to 9. They also predicted an ACE Index of 60 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 40 to 80. On August 4, 2009, Klotzbach's team updated their forecast for the 2009 season, again predicting slightly below average activity (10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes). On August 6, 2009, the NOAA also updated their forecast for the 2009 season, predicting below average activity (7–11 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes).

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