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2019 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through Mississippi and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The season's first hurricane, Barry, formed in mid-July in the northern Gulf of Mexico and struck Louisiana. Barry caused two deaths and produced flooding in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, with damage totaling about $600 million (2019 USD). Hurricane Dorian, the most intense tropical cyclone of the season, proved to be the costliest natural disaster in the history of the Bahamas, becoming the strongest hurricane to strike the country. Overall, Dorian caused about $5.1 billion in damage and 84 fatalities, mostly in the Bahamas. Tropical Storm Fernand left flooding in Mexico, with approximately $43.7 million in damage and one death. Hurricane Humberto caused extensive wind damage in Bermuda, totaling at least $25 million.

Drifting over Texas, Tropical Storm Imelda resulted in a devastating flood in the eastern portions of the state, with about $5 billion in damage and five fatalities. Lorenzo, which became the easternmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, caused 11 deaths after sinking the French tugboat Bourbon Rhode and 8 other fatalities from rough surf along the East Coast of the United States. With Dorian and Lorenzo both intensifying into Category 5 hurricanes, the season became one of eight seasons to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes, a feat that would not occur again until 2024. Additionally, Tropical Storm Nestor caused a tornado outbreak across west Florida in mid-October, leaving $125 million in damage, while a car crash in South Carolina killed three people. Tropical Storm Olga caused moderate damage and heavy flooding over the central Gulf Coast and generated hurricane-force wind gusts as far north as Tennessee. The storm left one dead and around $400 million in damage. Hurricane Pablo became the easternmost hurricane formation on record, beating 2005's Hurricane Vince. The season concluded with Tropical Storm Sebastien, which became extratropical on November 24.

Most forecasting agencies projected a near-average or slightly above season, with many expecting near-normal sea surface temperatures but expressing uncertainty about the intensity of El Niño. Ultimately, activity in regards to number of named storms exceeded all forecasts, but the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes remained within the predicted range.

Seasonal forecasts

Ahead of and during the hurricane season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) are likely to form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed; therefore, long-lived storms and particularly strong systems result in high levels of ACE. The measure is calculated at full advisories for cyclones at tropical storm strength — storms with winds in excess of 39 mph (63 km/h).

Pre-season outlooks

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season. CSU released their first forecast on April 4, 2019, predicting a near-average season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, citing the persistence of the weak El Niño and slightly colder than average sea surface temperatures. On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated their earlier predictions. North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes. On May 6, the Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The UK Met Office released their forecast on May 21, predicting 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy of 109 units. On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. TSR released an updated forecast on May 30, which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.

Mid-season outlooks

On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include a total of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Andrea. CSU noted continuing uncertainty about the intensity of the El Niño, but also increasing ocean temperatures, which were near-normal by then. The University of Arizona (UA) predicted on June 11 that the season would feature above-average activity – 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units. On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast. CSU released their second mid-season outlook on July 9, with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast. On August 5, the CSU released their third mid-season outlook, still retaining the same numbers from their previous forecast, albeit slightly revising the numbers of hurricanes from 6 to 7. TSR released their second and final mid-season outlook on August 6, with the only changes of increasing the number of named storms from 12 to 13. On August 8, NOAA released their second prediction with increasing the chances for 10–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes, suggesting above-average activity.

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