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2019 Pacific hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The season had a rather slow start, with no cyclones forming in the basin before the month of June for the first time since 2011. The strongest hurricane of the season, Barbara, formed on June 30 and peaked as a high-end Category 4 hurricane on July 3. August was extremely quiet with no hurricanes forming during the month, a first for a season since 1973. September was much more active with six systems developing, of which three became hurricanes. Activity decreased appreciably in October and November as most of the storms remained weak and short-lived.

Land impact was relatively minor for most of the season. The remnants of Barbara caused power outages in Hawaii in early July. Hurricanes Erick and Flossie both threatened Hawaii, but the systems weakened significantly before reaching the islands, both causing minimal effects. Tropical Storm Ivo caused intense flooding while it remained offshore of Mexico. In late September, Hurricane Lorena made landfall in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and its remnant moisture entered the southwestern United States. Lorena was responsible for one death and damages worth $50 million (2019 USD). Tropical Storm Narda took a nearly identical track a week later, killing six and causing $15.2 million in damage. Overall, this season was drastically less active and destructive than the previous year, causing about $65.2 million in damages and seven fatalities.

Seasonal forecasts

On May 15, 2019, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first forecast for the season, predicting a total of 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes to develop. On May 23, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast, predicting a 70% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 15–22 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–8 major hurricanes. The reason for their outlook was the forecast of an El Niño to continue through the season, which reduces vertical wind shear across the basin and increases sea surface temperatures, favoring increased tropical cyclone activity. In addition, many global computer models expected a positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a phase of a multi-decade cycle that favored much warmer than average sea surface temperatures that had been ongoing since 2014 to continue, in contrast to the 1995–2013 period, which generally featured below-normal activity.

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