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2013 Pacific hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Several systems directly affected Mexico this season. Hurricane Barbara brought widespread heavy rains to much of Southwestern Mexico and Central America in late May. Damage estimates from the storm range from $50 to $356 million (2013 USD). Hurricane Erick, and Tropical Storms Ivo and Juliette threatened Baja California Sur; Ivo also triggered flash floods across the Southwestern United States. In mid-September, Hurricane Manuel killed at least 169 people in Mexico, and was responsible for significant damage to the western coast and the area around Acapulco. Tropical Storms Juliette, Octave, and Sonia also made landfall in Baja California or northwestern Mexico, bringing with them heavy rains and strong winds. Additionally, Hurricane Raymond, which remained offshore, was the only major hurricane of the year.

Seasonal forecasts

On May 21, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) released its forecast for tropical activity across the Central Pacific during 2013. In its report, the organization predicted a 70 percent chance of a below-average season, a 25 percent chance of a near-average season, and a 5 percent chance of an above-average season, equating to 1–3 tropical cyclones across the basin. An average season yields 4–5 tropical cyclones. This forecast was based primarily on the expectation of Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions and a continuation of the positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

Two days later, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its forecast for tropical activity across the East Pacific during 2013. With near or below average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a continuation of the climate pattern responsible for the ongoing era of low Pacific hurricane activity that began in 1995, the organization called for a 55 percent chance of a below-average season, a 35 percent chance of a near-average season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-average season. In total, the CPC predicted 11–16 named storms, 5–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes; an average season yields 15.4 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 3.9 major hurricanes. Both the CPHC and CPC stressed the importance of being prepared prior to the start of the season, noting that significant tropical cyclones can occur even in below-average seasons.

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