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2021 Pacific hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Rain

In June, Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall near the border of the Mexican states of Colima and Michoacán, killing three people and resulting in US$50 million in insured losses. Just a week later, Hurricane Enrique paralleled the west coast of Mexico, causing an additional two fatalities and a similar amount of damage. In August, Hurricane Nora made landfall on the state of Jalisco and paralleled the Pacific coast of Mexico until dissipating, resulting in an estimated $100 million in damage and three more deaths. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Olaf made landfall on Baja California Sur as a Category 2 hurricane. In October, Hurricane Pamela struck Nayarit at Category 1 intensity, leaving four people missing and severe flooding. Later that month, Hurricane Rick struck near the Michoacán-Guerrero border at peak intensity as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Altogether, five systems made landfall in Mexico in 2021, the greatest number since 2018.


Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in important factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average hurricane season in the Eastern and Central Pacific between 1991 and 2020 contained approximately 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The NOAA generally classifies a season as above average, average, or below average based on the cumulative ACE index, but occasionally the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is also considered. Factors they expected to reduce activity were near- or below-average sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation remaining in the neutral phase, with the possibility of a La Niña developing.

On May 12, 2021, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional issued its forecast for the season, predicting a total of 14–20 named storms, 7–10 hurricanes, and 4–5 major hurricanes to develop. On May 20, 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their outlook, calling for a below-normal to near-normal season with 12–18 named storms, 5–10 hurricanes, 2–5 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy index of 65% to 120% of the median.

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