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2025 Pacific hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

In contrast to the previous season, which was the latest starting Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, there were several early season storms this year. Tropical Storm Alvin was the first system of the season. It formed off the coast of southern Mexico on May 28, and impacted western Mexico. It was followed by five systems in June, two of which became major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Dalila caused significant flooding in Mexico while passing offshore. Hurricane Erick became the earliest major hurricane to make landfall on either coast of Mexico (Pacific or Atlantic). Erick caused at least US$350 million in damage and 24 fatalities in southwestern Mexico. It was followed by Hurricane Flossie, which passed near the coast of southwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and property damage. In August, Tropical Storm Ivo brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Mexico. In September, Hurricane Lorena, Tropical Storm Mario, and Hurricane Narda brought similar effects to the same region. Then, in October, remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond contributed to floods and landslides in several Mexican states and brought heavy rainfall to the Southwestern United States. The last storm of the season, Tropical Storm Sonia, dissipated on October 28, with no further storms forming in November. Despite the level of activity, this was the first Pacific hurricane season since 2022 to not feature a Category 5 hurricane.

Seasonal forecasts

In advance of each Pacific hurricane season, forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the amount of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season.

According to NOAA, the average Pacific hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 80–115 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.

On May 7, 2025, SMN issued its first outlook for the Pacific hurricane season, forecasting an above average season with 16–20 named storms, 8–11 hurricanes, and 4–6 major hurricanes. On May 22, NOAA released its outlook for the eastern Pacific, which calls for a near-average season with 12 to 18 named storms, 5 to 10 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes, citing a continued neutral phase, the unlikelihood of an El Niño, and the possibility of La Niña in the summer. This increases vertical wind shear in the basin and slightly reduces sea surface temperatures, thus favoring mild to moderate tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, many global computer models predicted a negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a phase of a multi-decadal cycle that favored the continuation of much warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, which had been occurring since 2021, unlike the 1991-2020 period, which generally featured below-normal activity.

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