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1984 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through Atlantic Ocean, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atmospheric pressure

The most intense tropical cyclone of the season was Hurricane Diana, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Meandering erratically offshore the Carolinas, Diana weakened to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in North Carolina. Diana was the first hurricane to strike a nuclear power plant, but without incident. Hurricane Klaus, the most damaging storm of the season, caused $157 million (1984 USD) in damage in the Lesser Antilles, with a vast majority of that total in the British Virgin Islands. Also of note, Tropical Storm Fran became the second-deadliest cyclone in the history of the Cabo Verde Islands, killing 29 to 32 people. Overall, the systems of the 1984 season caused about $233.74 million in damage and 41-44 fatalities. Unusually, no hurricanes developed directly from tropical waves in 1984, which usually are the source of the strongest storms in an Atlantic hurricane season.

Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts such as Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU). A normal season, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the period from 1981 to 2010, has approximately 12 named storms, with 6 of those reaching hurricane status. About 3 hurricanes strengthen into major hurricanes, which are tropical cyclones that reach at least Category 3 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

On July 23, 1983, forecasters at CSU predicted an above-average season in 1984 with a total of 11 tropical storms developing, 8 of which would reach hurricane status, under the assumption that sea-level pressures over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico would be normal. Early in 1984, the Weather Research Center (WRC) forecast on the other hand called for a below-average season with seven named storms, with four of those strengthening into a hurricane. on May 24, 1984, forecasters at CSU revised their prediction downwards to a total of 10 tropical storms, 7 of which would reach hurricane status, as the easterly Quasi-biennial oscillation cycle had lasted longer than expected and the previously expected La Niña event in 1984 had yet to form and was now not expected until the autumn or winter, On the other hand, sea-level pressures over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico were more favorable than expected. These numbers were unchanged in CSU's next season outlook, issued on July 30. None of these predictions included a forecast for the number of major hurricanes. Ultimately, the predictions issued by CSU proved to be too high for hurricanes and too low for tropical storms, with 13 subtropical or tropical storms forming in 1984 and 5 of those reaching hurricane status. CSU attributed the overforecast of hurricanes to the easterly QBO cycle not changing during the hurricane season as was expected and the sea-level pressures from August to October being less favorable than expected, and the underforecast of tropical storms to the unusual amount of formation in the subtropics from mid-latitude residual frontal activity.

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