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2021 Western North America heat wave

2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada

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Through Heat wave, Labrador and China

The heat wave was characterized as a heat dome because of the extreme temperatures and the exceptionally strong ridge centered over the area, whose probability of formation was linked to the effects of climate change by multiple studies. It resulted in some of the highest temperatures ever recorded in the region, including the highest temperature ever measured in Canada at 49.6 °C (121.3 °F), as well as the highest temperatures in British Columbia, in the Northwest Territories, in the state of Washington as well as a tied record in Oregon. The record-high temperatures associated with the heat wave stretched from Oregon to northern Manitoba, and daily highs were set as far east as Labrador and as far southwest as Southern California.

The extreme heat sparked numerous, extensive wildfires, some reaching hundreds of square kilometers in area. The eponymous Lytton wildfire destroyed the village of Lytton, British Columbia, the day after the site set the record high temperature for Canada. Extreme heat also damaged road and rail infrastructure, forced closures of businesses, disrupted cultural events, and melted snowcaps, in some cases resulting in flooding. The heat wave also caused extensive damage to agriculture across the region, resulting in substantial loss of crop yield and the death of 651,000 farm animals. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated that the heat wave caused at least $8.9 billion (2021 USD) in damages in the USA.

The death toll has been estimated to exceed 1,400 people, with at least 808 deaths estimated in western Canada. The Chief Coroner of British Columbia reported that 619 deaths were recorded due to heat exposure in the week from June 25 to July 1. Confirmed deaths in the United States included at least 116 in Oregon (of which 72 were in Multnomah County, which includes almost all of Portland), at least 112 in Washington, and one death in Idaho. An analysis by The New York Times suggests that around 600 excess deaths occurred the week the heat wave passed through Washington and Oregon.

Meteorological history

On June 23, the United States National Weather Service warned of an approaching heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, whose origins could be traced to torrential rains in China. There, the warm, moist air rose and was eventually entrained by the jet stream, which transported it east over cooler waters. When that air current encountered an upper-level high-pressure zone, also called a ridge, it started to significantly deform, being forced to accommodate the high-pressure area south of the jet stream's meander. At the same time, the Southwestern United States was enduring an intense drought which caused higher-than-average temperatures, leading to a similar heat wave earlier in June. The remnants of this heat wave then moved north to the Pacific Northwest. Six days later, Environment Canada issued a heat warning for Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Manitoba, Yukon, and Northwest Territories.

These conditions made way for a massive Rex block. In this situation, a high-pressure area stays in place for an extended period and does not let cyclones pass through it, which otherwise could have cooled the region; in this particular case, the high-pressure area was sandwiched between two stationary lows, which prevented the high-pressure region from moving. As the Pacific Northwest experienced severe drought conditions, the already warm air heated more quickly than usual, which intensified the ridge so strongly it caused a heat dome. The downslope winds from the Cascades and other mountain ranges further warmed the air in the valleys.

After the heat dome hovered over British Columbia and the Northwestern United States for a few days, it began to move eastward, bringing relief to the Pacific coast but breaking records east of the Rocky Mountains, particularly in the northern parts of the Prairie provinces. Sweltering conditions were observed as far east as Northwest Ontario. By July 4–5, the remnants of the heat dome crossed Hudson Bay and, weakened somewhat by the cool waters, entered Quebec, and after that, Labrador, briefly triggering temperatures of around 30 °C (86 °F).

Climate change and additional factors

Climate change in Canada and in the United States are widely considered to have worsened the heat wave's unprecedented intensity and duration. According to a rapid attribution analysis, the heat wave would have been highly unlikely in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, which increased the likelihood of such a heat wave at least 150-fold. A further study in Nature Climate Change estimated that its occurrence was projected to increase rapidly with further global warming, possibly becoming a 10-year event in a climate warmed 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.

Broader climate shifts may have also contributed to worsening the heat wave; data provided by Verisk shows that the Pacific Northwest is among the fastest-heating regions in the continental United States and southern Canada. The urban heat island effect could have further exacerbated the impact in cities. Based on historic data, several meteorologists noted that this phenomenon should be expected to occur only once over a thousand or several thousand years, while David Sauchyn, a scientist at the University of Regina, said that climate models had been predicting a heat wave of a similar intensity to happen in late 2020s at the earliest.

A paper in Communications Earth & Environment found that the heat dome in the Pacific Northwest was 59% longer (27 days duration versus 17 days), 34% larger, and had 6% higher maximum amplitude, comparing the observed event and the event after detrending. Overall the strength of the heat dome was 86% greater than the same event would have been without background warming.

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