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2022 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atmospheric pressure and Cuba

Two systems developed on July 1. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed and made landfall near the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border. It then crossed over into the Pacific basin, becoming the first to survive the crossover from the Atlantic to the Pacific since Hurricane Otto in 2016. Also, Tropical Storm Colin formed abruptly and made landfall in South Carolina, before quickly weakening and dissipating the next day. Following this activity, tropical cyclogenesis was suppressed across the basin for several weeks by a combination of increased wind shear and the presence of the Saharan Air Layer. This stopped all tropical cyclogenesis in August, the first season to do so since 1997, and the first during a La Niña. This pause in activity lasted sixty days, ending when hurricanes Danielle and Earl formed on September 1 and 3 respectively. Danielle become the season's first hurricane; the last season to have its first hurricane develop this late was 2013.

Activity then increased tremendously towards the end of September as four named storms formed in quick succession. Among them, Hurricane Fiona became the season's first major hurricane on September 20, which is about three weeks later than when the first one typically forms. As an extratropical cyclone it became the strongest storm in Canadian history, as measured by atmospheric pressure, and caused significant damage in Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Ian then became the second major hurricane of the season on September 27 and the only Category 5 of the season on September 28 and inflicted an estimated $113.1 billion in damage to western Cuba, Southwestern and Central Florida, and the Carolinas. Hurricane Julia formed in early October and became the second storm of the season to cross over into the Pacific basin intact after traversing Nicaragua, making this season the first to have more than one crossover system since 1996. The last storm in the season, Hurricane Nicole, made landfall on the coasts of the Bahamas and Florida. It was the first November hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Kate in 1985, and caused about $1 billion in damage in areas devastated by Ian six weeks earlier. Tropical cyclones during this season collectively caused at least 304 deaths and more than $117.7 billion in damage, making it one of the costliest seasons on record.

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing. While conducive conditions such as warmer sea surface temperatures and a La Niña came to fruition, the unfavorable wind shear pattern with drier air and Saharan Air Layer suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through most of July and the entirety of August, with the latter typically being among the most active climatologically.

Seasonal forecasts

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended-range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units. The forecast also gave a 25% chance that the ACE Index would end up being around 170 units, and a 25% likelihood the likelihood that the index would end up around 80. TSR also issued an extended-range forecast on December 10, 2021. It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. This outlook had "large uncertainties".

In their April 6, 2022, forecast, TSR's number of named storms remained unchanged, while they slightly increased the number of major hurricane from three to four. On the following day, CSU issued their first extended-range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well-above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño. The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their first seasonal forecast on April 14, calling for 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units. North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

On May 9, Pennsylvania State University predicted 14.9 +/- 3.8 tropical storms, or a range of 11 to 19 named storms. On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above-average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively. The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes. TSR released another prediction on May 31 that was unchanged from its April 6 forecast: 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Mid-season forecasts

On June 2, CSU updated their extended-range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after a later analysis of the lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic. TWC's second outlook, released on June 17, slightly increased the number of named storms to 21 and hurricanes to 9, but left the number of major hurricanes at 4. On June 20, 2022, UA updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units. On July 5, TSR released their third forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This prediction was largely based on the persistence of the weak La Niña into the third quarter of the year. On July 7, CSU did not make changes to their updated prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. UKMO's updated forecast on August 2 called for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Two days later, NOAA and CSU each revised their activity outlook slightly downward, though both still predicted that the season would end up being busier than the 30-year average. The revisions were made in part because of the relative slow start to the season (as compared to the past few years), with only three short-lived named storms as of the start of August. The third and final TWC seasonal forecast, issued on August 18, decreased the number of named storms to 17, hurricanes to 7, and major hurricanes to 3.

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