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Economy of Colombia

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Through Gross domestic product, South America and Information technology

Petroleum is Colombia's main export, representing over 45% of Colombia's exports. Manufacturing represents nearly 12% of Colombia's exports and grows at a rate of over 10% a year. Colombia has the fastest growing information technology industry in the world, and has the longest fibre optic network in Latin America. Colombia also has one of the largest shipbuilding industries in the world outside Asia.

Modern industries like shipbuilding, electronics, automobile, tourism, construction, and mining grew dramatically during the 2000s and 2010s. However, most of Colombia's exports are still commodity-based. Colombia is Latin America's 2nd-largest producer of domestically made electronics and appliances, following Mexico.

Since the early 2010s, the Colombian government has shown interest in exporting modern Colombian pop culture to the world (which includes video games, music, films, television shows, fashion, cosmetics, and food) as a way of diversifying the economy and entirely changing the image of Colombia. This has inspired a national campaign similar to the Korean Wave. Colombia is only behind Mexico in cultural exports and is already a regional leader in cosmetic and beauty exports.

Wealth is poorly distributed and Colombia is among the most unequal societies in the world, with a Gini index of approximately 0.̟6. For example, according to the World Bank, in 2010, the richest 20% of the population owned 60.2% of the wealth and the poorest 20% only 3%, and 15.8% of Colombians lived on less than $2 a day. In 2021, more than 54% of Colombian families were food insecure and more than 560,000 children under the age of five were chronically undernourished.

The informal economy is estimated at 47% in 2020. There is no welfare state in Colombia, which has almost no unemployment or pension insurance system. As a result, only one million elderly people have pensions (and five million are without) and social assistance is very low. Many people in their 70s and 80s are forced to continue working or beg. The country is said to be the most unequal in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

History

16th–19th centuries

European explorers reached what is now Colombian territory as early as 1510 in Santa María Antigua del Darién (in present-day Chocó department). For the next couple of decades Colombia, and South America in general, remained largely unexplored. From 1533 to 1600, Europeans began expeditions into the interior of current Colombia. The intent of these expeditions was mainly to conquer new lands and exploit village resources. Legends of El Dorado that reached Spaniard explorers continued to fuel exploration and raiding of Indian villages.

In the 17th century, Spanish conquerors explored Colombia and made the first settlements, and this was the beginning of Colombia's modern economic history. Major conquistadors from this period were Pedro de Heredia, Gonzalo Jimenez de Quesada, Sebastián de Belalcazar, and Nikolaus Federmann.

During the 16th and 17th centuries, the colonial settlements in Colombia served purposes of extraction of precious metals and other natural resources, and later slavery trade. This economic arrangement left the Colony with little room for building solid institutionality for economic development. The main non-extractive institutions emerging in this centuries were the fortified port of Cartagena and the Viceroyalty of New Granada. Cartagena developed military defenses mainly out of necessity from frequently having to deal with pirate attacks. A primitive form of colonial administration was organized in Santa fé de Bogotá with the Viceroyalty of New Granada, especially under the tenure of José Solís Folch de Cardona (1753–1761), who conducted a census and built roads, bridges and aqueducts.

Following the Thousand Days' War (1899–1902), Colombia experienced a coffee boom that catapulted the country into the modern period, bringing the attendant benefits of transportation, particularly railroads, communications infrastructure, and the first major attempts at manufacturing.

20th century

Colombia's consistently sound economic policies and aggressive promotion of free trade agreements in recent years have bolstered its ability to weather external shocks. Real GDP has grown more than 4% per year for the past three years, continuing almost a decade of strong economic performance.

In 1990, the administration of President César Gaviria Trujillo (1990–94) initiated economic liberalism policies or "apertura economica" and this has continued since then, with tariff reductions, financial deregulation, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and adoption of a more liberal foreign exchange rate. Almost all sectors became open to foreign investment although agricultural products remained protected.

The original idea of his then Minister of Finance, Rudolf Homes, was that the country should import agricultural products in which it was not competitive, like maize, wheat, cotton and soybeans and export the ones in which it had an advantage, like fruits and flowers. In ten years, the sector lost 7,000 km2 to imports, with a critical impact on employment in rural areas. Still, this policy makes food cheaper for the average Colombian than it would be if agricultural trade were more restricted.

Until 1997, Colombia had enjoyed a fairly stable economy. The first five years of liberalization were characterized by high economic growth rates of between 4% and 5%. The Ernesto Samper administration (1994–98) emphasized social welfare policies which targeted Colombia's lower income population. These reforms led to higher government spending which increased the fiscal deficit and public sector debt, the financing of which required higher interest rates. An over-valued peso inherited from the previous administration was maintained.

The economy slowed, and by 1998 GDP growth was only 0.6%. In 1999, the country fell into its first recession since the Great Depression. The economy shrank by 4.5% with unemployment at over 20%. While unemployment remained at 20% in 2000, GDP growth recovered to 3.1%. Unemployment in 2020 has improved compared to two decades ago to 12.20%.

The administration of President Andrés Pastrana Arango, when it took office on 7 August 1998, faced an economy in crisis, with the difficult internal security situation and global economic turbulence additionally inhibiting confidence. As evidence of a serious recession became clear in 1999, the government took a number of steps. It engaged in a series of controlled devaluations of the peso, followed by a decision to let it float. Colombia also entered into an agreement with the International Monetary Fund which provided a $2.7 billion guarantee (extended funds facility), while committing the government to budget discipline and structural reforms.

21st century

By early 2000 there had been the beginning of an economic recovery, with the export sector leading the way, as it enjoyed the benefit of the more competitive exchange rate, as well as strong prices for petroleum, Colombia's leading export product. Prices of coffee, the other principal export product, have been more variable.

Economic growth reached 3.1% during 2000 and inflation 9.0%. Inflation by 2021 has stabilized at 3.30%. Colombia's international reserves remained stable at around $8.35 billion in the year 2000 growing to $58.57 billion by 2021, and Colombia has successfully remained in international capital markets. Colombia's total foreign debt at the end of 1999 was $34.5 billion with $14.7 billion in private sector and $19.8 billion in public sector debt. Major international credit rating organizations had dropped Colombian sovereign debt below investment grade, primarily as a result of large fiscal deficits, which current policies are seeking to close. As of 2021 Colombia has recovered its investment grade rating.

Former president Álvaro Uribe (elected 7 August 2002) introduced several neoliberal economic reforms, including measures designed to reduce the public-sector deficit below 2.5% of GDP in 2004. The government's economic policy and controversial democratic security strategy have engendered a growing sense of confidence in the economy, particularly within the business sector, and GDP growth in 2003 was among the highest in Latin America, at over 4%. This growth rate was maintained over the next decade, averaging 4.8% from 2004 to 2014.

According to figures from Dane, monetary poverty went from 37.2% in 2010 to 26.9% in 2017, which indicates a higher income for the most vulnerable households. During the Santos government, there was an inflationary period that was also a response to the strong external shock of the fall in oil prices. It was a period of contained instability, although inflation increased, no company declared bankruptcy and there was no instability in the financial system.

The Santos period managed an increase in GDP of 4% in 2010, which peaked in 2011 to 6.6%. Thereafter it remained at 4% in 2012, 4.9% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2014. In 2011, Colombia recovered its BBB− investment grade, which was raised in 2013 to BBB. As a result of sustained growth, during the eight years of the Santos government, 3.5 million jobs were created, while 5.4 million people were lifted out of poverty.

The focus of Santos' second term was to reach a peace agreement with the FARC whose economic effects, according to assumptions, could imply a GDP growth of up to two additional percentage points. Santos' best legacy is precisely the one related to security since this will have an effect in the medium and long term in terms of investment decisions, job creation, and the beginning of a great revolution in the country's infrastructure: war prevented development in the most affected areas for centuries.

Colombia's President Iván Duque withdrew a controversial tax reform bill following four weeks of huge protests across the country starting 28 April 2021. In 2021, Colombia registered an increase in Gross Domestic Product of more than 10%, as a result of a rebound effect that derived from the 6.8% collapse a year earlier, caused by the economic closures decreed to stop the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic exacerbated poverty. In 2021, official figures showed that 39% of Colombians – out of a population of 51.6 million inhabitants – were in a condition of monetary poverty. Although it shows a slight improvement compared to 2020 (42.5%), it meant a setback of at least a decade.

The greatest increase in the value of the debt also occurred in the Duque government, according to figures from the Bank of the Republic. Between 2020 and 2021 the balance increased by 17 billion dollars, and from 2019 to 2020 it increased by 16 billion. That figure, which corresponds to a deficit of 7.1 percent of GDP, was the debt that the Central National Government or GNC (the State without its companies or regional entities) had in 2021, according to the fiscal closing bulletin.

In the Duque government, specifically between May and June 2020, 66.7 percent of the country's gold reserves were sold, which went from 710.5 to 237.4 million dollars. The decision was made by the Bank of the Republic. The sale received criticism because although it was done at a time of rising prices – after five years in which this did not happen – it was before gold reached a record price.

The COVID-19 recession had a profound impact on Colombia's economy, with significant disruptions to GDP components, unemployment, and inflation. Household consumption, which is a key driver of the economy, saw the sharpest decline, dropping by 20% in the second quarter of 2020 due to lockdowns, income uncertainty, and limited mobility. Despite a partial recovery in Q3 2020, high unemployment (peaking at 19.9%) and ongoing uncertainties slowed the recovery of consumer spending. Investment also decreased during the pandemic, with businesses reducing capital expenditures amid uncertainty (-31.6%). Although investment exhibited a significant recovery in Q3 2020, reaching 26%, the drop in global demand for Colombia's exports—particularly oil and coal—influenced a slow recovery as indicated by 10% growth rate of real GDP following a 16% trough. Government spending rose in response to the pandemic, driven by fiscal stimulus and social aid programs, helping to stabilize the economy.

The deterioration of the labor market severely affected sectors such as retail, hospitality, and informal employment, deepening the economic contraction. Although unemployment gradually decreased to 14.75% by early 2021, it stayed significantly above the pre-pandemic levels. Inflation, on the other hand, remained low in Q1 2020, but turned into deflation for the remaining of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, signaling a significant weakened aggregate demand. Overall, Colombia's real GDP contracted by about 16% in Q2 2020, due to declines in household consumption and investment. While there were modest signs of recovery by early 2021, the combination of high unemployment and deflation continued to hinder the full economic rebound.

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