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Economy of the Republic of Ireland

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Social expenditure stood at roughly 13.4% of GDP in 2024. Following a period of continuous growth at an annual level from 1984 to 2007, the post-2008 Irish economic downturn severely affected the economy, compounding domestic economic problems related to the collapse of the Irish property bubble. Ireland first experienced a short technical recession from Q2-Q3 2007, followed by a recession from Q1 2008 – Q4 2009.

After a year with stagnant economic activity in 2010, the Irish real GDP rose by 2.2% in 2011 and 0.2% in 2012. This growth was mainly driven by improvements in the export sector. The European sovereign-debt crisis caused a new Irish recession to start in Q3 2012, which was still ongoing as of Q2 2013. By mid-2013, the European Commission's economic forecast for Ireland predicted its growth rates would return to a positive 1.1% in 2013 and 2.2% in 2014. An inflated 2015 GDP growth of 26.3% (GNP growth of 18.7%) was officially partially ascribed to tax inversion practices by multinationals switching domiciles. This growth in GDP, dubbed "leprechaun economics" by American economist Paul Krugman, was shown to be driven by Apple Inc.'s restructuring of its Irish subsidiary in January 2015. The distortion of Ireland's economic statistics (including GNI, GNP and GDP) by the tax practices of some multinationals, led the Central Bank of Ireland to propose an alternative measure (modified GNI or GNI*) to more accurately reflect the true state of the economy from that year onwards.

Foreign-owned multinationals continue to contribute significantly to Ireland's economy, making up 14 of the top 20 Irish firms (by turnover), employing 23% of the private sector labour-force, and paying 80% of the collected corporation tax.

Economic contributors and measures

Foreign-owned multinationals make up a significant percentage of Ireland's GDP. The "multinational tax schemes" used by some of these multinational firms contribute to a distortion in Ireland's economic statistics; including GNI, GNP and GDP. For example, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows Ireland with average leverage on a gross public debt-to-GDP basis (78.8% in 2016), but with the second highest leverage (after Japan) on a gross public debt-per capita basis ($62,686 in 2016). This disconnect led to the 2017 development by the Central Bank of Ireland of Irish modified GNI (or GNI*) for measuring the Irish economy (2016 GDP is 143% of Irish 2016 GNI*, and OECD Irish gross public debt-to-GNI* is 116.5%). Ireland's GNI* per capita ranks it similar to Germany. According to an OECD report, productivity growth among foreign owned entities averaged 10.9% for 2017 and was a lower 2.5% for indigenous firms.

The distortion of Irish economic data by US multinational tax schemes was a key contributor to the build-up of leverage in the Celtic Tiger, amplifying both Irish consumer optimism (who borrowed to 190% of disposable income, OECD highest), and global capital markets optimism about Ireland (enabled Irish banks to lend over 180% of deposit base, OECD highest). Global capital markets, who ignored Ireland's private sector credit, and OECD/IMF warnings, when Irish GDP was rising during the Celtic Tiger, retracted during the post-2008 Irish economic downturn, leading to a deep decline in Irish property values.

A particularly dramatic growth in Ireland's 2015 GDP (from 1% in 2013, to 8% in 2014, to 25% in 2015) was shown to be largely driven by Apple restructuring their double Irish subsidiary, ASI, in January 2015. A follow-up EU Commission report into Ireland's national accounts showed that even before this, 23% of Ireland's GDP was multinational net royalty payments, implying Irish GDP was inflated to 130% of "true" GDP (before the Apple growth). This led to the Central Bank of Ireland proposing a new replacement metric, modified gross national income (or GNI*), to better represent the "true" Irish economy.

Given the importance of US multinationals to Ireland's economy (80% of Irish multinational employment, and 14 of the 20 largest Irish firms), the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is a challenge to Ireland. Parts of the US TCJA are targeted at Irish multinational tax schemes, especially the move to a modern "territorial tax" system, the introduction of a lower FDII tax on intellectual property, and the counter-Irish GILTI tax regime. Additionally, the EU's proposed Digital Sales Tax and stated desire for a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base, is also seen as an attempt to restrict the use of the Irish multinational tax schemes by US technology firms.

The stabilisation of the Irish credit bubble required a large transfer of debt from the private sector balance sheet (highest OECD leverage), to the public sector balance sheet (almost unleveraged, pre-crisis), via Irish bank bailouts and public deficit spending. The transfer of this debt means that Ireland, in 2017, had one of the highest levels of both public sector indebtedness, and private sector indebtedness, in the EU-28/OECD.

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