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Food vs. fuel

Debate concerning diversion of food supply for biofuels

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Through Food security, Food prices and Sugarcane

Biofuel production has increased in recent years. Some commodities, like maize (corn), sugar cane or vegetable oil can be used either as food, feed, or to make biofuels. For example, since 2006, a portion of land that was also formerly used to grow food crops in the United States is now used to grow corn for biofuels, and a larger share of corn is destined for ethanol production, reaching approximately 37% in 2023. Oil price increases since 2003, the desire to reduce oil dependency, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation have together increased global demand for biofuels. Increased demand tends to improve financial returns on production, making biofuel more profitable and attractive than food production. This, in turn, leads to greater resource inputs to biofuel production, with correspondingly reduced resources put towards the production of food. Global food security issues may result from such economic disincentives to large-scale agricultural food production. There is, in addition, potential for the destruction of habitats with increasing pressure to convert land use to agriculture, for the production of biofuel. Environmental groups have raised concerns about these potential harms for some years, but the issues drew widespread attention worldwide due to the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.

Second-generation biofuels could potentially provide solutions to these negative effects. For example, they may allow for combined farming for food and fuel, and electricity could be generated simultaneously. This could be especially beneficial for developing countries and rural areas in developed countries. Some research suggests that biofuel production can be significantly increased without the need for increased acreage.

Biofuels are not a new phenomenon. Before industrialisation, horses were the primary source of power for transportation and physical work, requiring food. The growing of crops for horses (typically oats) to carry out physical work is comparable to the growing of crops for biofuels used in engines. However, the earlier, pre-industrial "biofuel" crops were at smaller scale.

Brazil has been considered to have the world's first sustainable biofuels economy, and its government claims Brazil's sugar cane-based ethanol industry did not contribute to the 2008 food crisis. A World Bank policy research working paper released in July 2008 concluded that "large increases in biofuel production in the United States and Europe are the main reason behind the steep rise in global food prices" and also stated that "Brazil's sugar-based ethanol did not push food prices appreciably higher.". However, a 2010 study also by the World Bank concluded that their previous study may have overestimated the contribution of biofuel production, as "the effect of biofuels on food prices has not been as large as originally thought, but that the use of commodities by financial investors (the so-called "financialization of commodities") may have been partly responsible for the 2007/08 spike." A 2008 independent study by the OECD also found that the impact of biofuels on food prices are much smaller.

Food price inflation

From 1974 to 2005, real food prices (adjusted for inflation) dropped by 75%. Food commodity prices were relatively stable after reaching lows in 2000 and 2001. Therefore, recent rapid food price increases are considered extraordinary. A World Bank policy research working paper published in July 2008 found that the increase in food commodity prices was led by grains, with sharp price increases in 2005 despite record crops worldwide. From January 2005 until June 2008, maize prices almost tripled, wheat increased 127 percent, and rice rose 170 percent. The increase in grain prices was followed by increases in fat and oil prices in mid-2006. On the other hand, the study found that sugar cane production has increased rapidly, and it was large enough to keep sugar price increases small except for 2005 and early 2006. The paper concluded that biofuels produced from grains have raised food prices in combination with other related factors by between 70 and 75 percent, but ethanol produced from sugar cane has not contributed significantly to the recent increase in food commodities prices.

An economic assessment report published by the OECD in July 2008 found that "the impact of current biofuel policies on world crop prices, largely through increased demand for cereals and vegetable oils, is significant but should not be overestimated. Current biofuel support measures alone are estimated to increase average wheat prices by about 5 percent, maize by around 7 percent and vegetable oil by about 19 percent over the next 10 years."

Corn is used to make ethanol and prices went up by a factor of three in less than 3 years (measured in US dollars). Reports in 2007 linked stories as diverse as food riots in Mexico due to rising prices of corn for tortillas and reduced profits at Heineken, the large international brewer, to the increasing use of corn (maize) grown in the US Midwest for ethanol production. In the case of beer, the barley area was cut in order to increase corn production. Barley is not currently used to produce ethanol.) Wheat is up by almost a factor of 3 in three years, while soybeans are up by a factor of 2 in two years (both measured in US dollars).

As corn is commonly used as feed for livestock, higher corn prices lead to higher prices for animal source foods. Vegetable oil is used to make biodiesel and has about doubled in price in the last couple years. The prices are roughly tracking crude oil prices. The 2007–2008 world food price crisis is blamed partly on the increased demand for biofuels. During the same period, rice prices went up by a factor of 3 even though rice is not directly used in biofuels.

The USDA expects the 2008/2009 wheat season to be a record crop and 8% higher than the previous year. They also expect rice to have a record crop. Wheat prices have dropped from a high of over $12 per bushel in May 2008 to under $8/bushel in May. Rice has also dropped from its highs.

According to a 2008 report from the World Bank, the production of biofuel pushed food prices up. These conclusions were supported by the Union of Concerned Scientists in their September 2008 newsletter, in which they remarked that the World Bank analysis "contradicts U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schaffer's assertion that biofuels account for only a small percentage of rising food prices".

According to the October Consumer Price Index released on November 19, 2008, food prices continued to rise in October 2008 and were 6.3 percent higher than in October 2007. Since July 2008, fuel costs dropped by nearly 60 percent.

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