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Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem

Impossibility result for ranked-choice voting systems

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Through If and only if, Cardinality and Cartesian product

  1. The rule is dictatorial, i.e. there exists a distinguished voter who can choose the winner; or
  2. The rule limits the possible outcomes to two alternatives only; or
  3. The rule is manipulable, i.e. not strategyproof, i.e., there is no single always-best strategy (one that does not depend on other voters' preferences or behavior).
  4. The rule does not yield a single winner

Gibbard's proof of the theorem is more general and covers processes of collective decision that may not be ordinal, such as cardinal voting. Gibbard's 1978 theorem and Hylland's theorem are even more general and extend these results to non-deterministic processes, where the outcome may depend partly on chance; the Duggan–Schwartz theorem extends these results to multiwinner electoral systems.

The theorem has two interpretations. The old interpretation views it as a proof that "democracy is impossible", stating that if we require a voting rule to yield a single winner, there are distributions of voter preferences where the rule is dictatorial or "allows manipulation".

The modern interpretation views it as a proof that there is no point to look for an agreement using a voting rule when there is no agreement. In this interpretation the theorem is an argument to use "none of above" as a choice in every vote (as the Debian General Resolution Procedure does), and to accept that a vote can yield no result, signaling that more deliberation is needed about the topic.

Informal description

Consider three voters named Alice, Bob and Carol, who wish to select a winner among four candidates named a, b, c and d. Assume that they use the Borda count: each voter communicates their preference order over the candidates. For each ballot, 3 points are assigned to the top candidate, 2 points to the second candidate, 1 point to the third one and 0 points to the last one. Once all ballots have been counted, the candidate with the most points is declared the winner.

Assume that their preferences are as follows.

If the voters cast sincere ballots, then the scores are: (a:3,b:6,c:7,d:2). Hence, candidate c will be elected, with 7 points.

But Alice can vote strategically and change the result. Assume that she modifies her ballot, in order to produce the following situation.

Alice has strategically upgraded candidate b and downgraded candidate c. Now, the scores are: (a:2,b:7,c:6,d:3). Hence, b is elected. Alice is satisfied by her ballot modification, because she prefers the outcome b to c, which is the outcome she would obtain if she voted sincerely.

We say that the Borda count is manipulable: there exists situations where a sincere ballot does not defend a voter's preferences best.

The Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem states that every ranked-choice voting is manipulable, except possibly in two cases: if there is a distinguished voter who has a dictatorial power, or if the rule limits the possible outcomes to two options only.

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