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Greenfield tornado

2024 EF4 tornado in Iowa, U.S.

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The May 21, 2024 Greenfield, Iowa EF4 tornado as seen southwest of Greenfield.
Kyle McAleer · CC BY-SA 4.0

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Through Tornado

The tornado formed amidst a significant tornado outbreak in an area expected to be strongly conducive for the development of long-tracked and fast-moving tornadoes. Over the next 48 minutes, the tornado was observed by multiple storm chasers and research teams, who would determine the extreme wind figure from a direct radar measurement above the city of Greenfield. In addition to one fatality on a highway in Adams County, four fatalities occurred in Greenfield, with the damage in the city described as "horrific", as surveyors revealed damage consistent with a violent EF4 tornado, contradicting analysis of mobile radar data. The tornado has been noted as an important milestone in the practical efficacy of the Warn-on-Forecast system, which predicted tornadic activity in the vicinity of Greenfield about 75 minutes before the tornado reached the community. State legislation, introduced in the aftermath of the Greenfield and Minden tornadoes and passed in both that summer and the following year, would fund housing projects and disaster recovery programs throughout Iowa.

Meteorological synopsis

On May 21, forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate (4/5) risk for severe weather over the states of Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, highlighting an elevated regional risk for tornadoes and strong wind gusts. Early on that morning, convective storms along a bow echo, a formation of storms associated with high winds, had formed along a boundary consisting of outflow from storm activity over western Nebraska. These storms were expected to move eastward through the southern third of Iowa, bringing a small risk of surface-based severe weather. To the north, a roughly west-to-east band of non-severe storms existed along a composite frontal and outflow boundary. North of this boundary existed a large area of rain showers that covered an area of dew points near 60 Fahrenheit and surface temperature in the lower 60s Fahrenheit. Dew points above 55 °F (13 °C) are typically considered more conducive to severe weather. These showers led to atmospheric stabilization, curtailing any severe risk north of the boundary. As the convection moved eastward out of the area, its severe risk was expected to lessen.

Later on that morning, a second severe weather threat developed as a large surface low-pressure trough had appeared over the Midwest, primarily centered over north-central Kansas, with a secondary and weaker low center near the tri-point of South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota. A warm front extended from the southern low center to the northeast through southeastern Nebraska and over southern Iowa, creating a large warm sector. A cold front anchored by the same low center extended southeast through central Kansas into the Oklahoma panhandle. The primary surface low was expected to move quickly to the northeast, moving the warm sector bounded by the warm front further north into east-central to southeastern Nebraska and west-central to southwestern Iowa, where atmospheric conditions conducive to severe weather would develop. Strong vertical ascent brought by the shortwave trough led to probable elevated thunderstorms over the central Nebraska/Kansas border, which would contribute to a surface-based storm system as they approached the Nebraska/Iowa border region. These surface-based storms were expected to develop into fast-moving supercells capable of producing severe weather hazards.

Early in the afternoon, the southern low center had moved to southeastern Nebraska. The warm front was expected to rapidly move northward ahead of the shortwave trough, which would bring higher dew points in the upper 60s Fahrenheit into much of Iowa. In conjunction with this, a large change in temperatures with altitude hallmarked by steep mid-level lapse rates, and mid-level CAPE values of 2500–3500 j/kg, a measure of atmospheric instability approximating the power thunderstorm updrafts have to rise, in addition to powerful wind fields producing elongated hodographs, a measure indicative of a shift in wind speed with height that allows the development of rotating thunderstorms, were expected to be present in the region throughout the early afternoon. These factors would result in an environment very conducive to significant and fast-moving severe thunderstorms. The storm mode was initially expected to be discrete, with fast-moving individual storms staying ahead of the cold front in the severe-conducive warm sector. These storms were expected to quickly develop the characteristics of severe supercell thunderstorms, with strong wind gusts up to 75 mph (121 km/h), very large hail up to 3 in (7.6 cm), and strong and long-lasting tornadoes all being possible hazards.

A particularly dangerous situation level of tornado watch was issued at 1:10 p.m. CDT over much of Iowa and parts of surrounding states. All severe weather hazards were expected as the risk of "[s]everal tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes" would exist over a large region, including Adair County. The watch outlined a 90% chance of two or more tornadoes, with an 80% chance of one or more tornadoes significant on the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF2–EF5) in the watch area.

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