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Peak car

Decline of private vehicle use

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The theory was proposed following reductions, which have now been observed in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan (early 1990s), New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom (many cities from about 1994) and the United States. A study by Volpe Transportation in 2013 noted that average miles driven by individuals in the United States has been declining from 900 miles (1,400 km) per month in 2004 to 820 miles (1,320 km) in July 2012, and that the decline had continued since the recent upturn in the US economy.

A number of academics have written in support of the theory, including Phil Goodwin, formerly Director of the transport research groups at Oxford University and University College London (UCL), and David Metz, a former Chief Scientist of the UK Department of Transport. The theory is disputed by the UK Department for Transport, which predicts that road traffic in the United Kingdom will grow by 50% by 2036, and Professor Stephen Glaister, Director of the RAC Foundation, who say traffic will start increasing again as the economy improves. Unlike peak oil, a theory based on a reduction in the ability to extract oil due to resource depletion, peak car is attributed to more complex and less understood causes.

History

Saturation model

The idea that car ownership would reach a saturation level and stop growing further has been around since at least 1925 when, for example, Miller McClintock noted that "[t]he most widely accepted estimate of the saturation point is five-to-one, that is, one automobile for every five persons". McClintock also predicted induced traffic: "the density of traffic will always approach a point of complete saturation. [An] increase in street capacity ... will not reduce the density of traffic, for the places thus made available, will be taken by those drivers who may be said to be on the margin of convenience".

In Traffic in Towns, a report produced in 1963 for the UK Ministry of Transport, Professor Sir Colin Buchanan suggested that traffic would saturate early in the 21st century. It has certainly been used in official traffic forecasting since the 1970s, for example in a UK Government study by Tulpule (1973) which forecast that car ownership would reach its maximum level by about 2010, with car use showing little further growth after that point.

In a series of international comparisons starting in 1993 and continuing until his death in 2011, the American researcher Lee Schipper and his colleagues noted that car traffic growth had slowed or ceased in a number of developed economies.

'Peak car' theory

The 'peak car' hypothesis was proposed after declines in traffic during the morning peak period were observed from the mid 1990s in some places and at a national level in the United Kingdom since about 2008. Local Transport Today, a professional transport journal in the United Kingdom, reported that the number "peak car traffic" entering Britain's town and city centres during the morning peak hours had declined significantly over the previous ten years; of 21 areas studied all except Leeds had seen falls. Traffic into London during the morning peak period had fallen 28% between 1994 and 2003 when the London congestion charge was introduced and a further 12% by 2004. Inbound car trip into Birmingham during the morning peak period had fallen by 29% between 1995 and 2003.

Between June and September 2010 Professor Phil Goodwin published a series of articles in the UK professional transport press suggesting that data showed not merely a plateau in vehicle miles driven but rather a decline in overall automobile usage per capita. These articles were later compiled and updated in a journal article by Goodwin, published in 2011.

David Metz, of University College London and former Chief Scientist of the UK Department of Transport noted in 2010 that "peak car use came and went [in the UK] at least 15 years ago, when none of us noticed". He then published articles in 2010 and 2012 suggesting that the Department's forecasts of growth were erroneous because in the UK a saturated peak level had already been reached.

In November 2010 by Millard-Ball and Schipper presented data confirming the trend in cities in eight nations: United States, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia. Newman and Kenworthy published an article in June 2011 suggesting that the effect was also valid for Australia.

By 2016, several papers have cast doubt on the peak car phenomenon, demonstrating that economic and sociodemographic factors account for most or all of the observed slowdowns. Recent statistics in the US show total vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) increasing after several years of decline, although per-capita VMT remains below its all-time high.

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