Younger Dryas

Climate

As with the other geologic periods, paleoclimate during the Younger Dryas is reconstructed through proxy data such as traces of pollen, ice cores and layers of marine and lake sediments. Collectively, this evidence shows that significant cooling across the Northern Hemisphere began around 12,870 ± 30 years BP. It was particularly severe in Greenland, where temperatures declined by 4–10 °C (7.2–18.0 °F), in an abrupt fashion. Temperatures at the Greenland summit were up to 15 °C (27 °F) colder than at the start of the 21st century.

Strong cooling of around 2–6 °C (4–11 °F) had also taken place in Europe. Icefields and glaciers formed in upland areas of Great Britain, while many lowland areas developed permafrost, implying a cooling of −5 °C (−9.0 °F) and a mean annual temperature no higher than −1 °C (30 °F). North America also became colder, particularly in the eastern and central areas. While the Pacific Northwest region cooled by 2–3 °C (3.6–5.4 °F), cooling in western North America was generally less intense. While the Orca Basin in the Gulf of Mexico still experienced a drop in sea surface temperature of 2.4 ± 0.6°C, land areas closer to it, such as Texas, the Grand Canyon area and New Mexico, ultimately did not cool as much as the continental interior. The Southeastern United States became warmer and wetter than before. There was warming in and around the Caribbean Sea, and in West Africa.

It was once believed that the Younger Dryas cooling started at around the same time across the Northern Hemisphere. However, varve (sedimentary rock) analysis carried out in 2015 suggested that the cooling proceeded in two stages: first along latitude 56–54°N, 12,900–13,100 years ago, and then further north, 12,600–12,750 years ago. Evidence from Lake Suigetsu cores in Japan and the Puerto Princesa cave complex in the Philippines shows that the onset of the Younger Dryas in East Asia was delayed by several hundred years relative to the North Atlantic. Further, the cooling was uniform throughout the year, but had a distinct seasonal pattern. In most places in the Northern Hemisphere, winters became much colder than before, but springs cooled by less, while there was either no temperature change or even slight warming during the summer. An exception appears to have taken place in what is now Maine, where winter temperatures remained stable, yet summer temperatures decreased by up to 7.5 °C (13.5 °F).

While the Northern Hemisphere cooled, considerable warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. Sea surface temperatures were warmer by 0.3–1.9 °C (0.5–3.4 °F), and Antarctica, South America (south of Venezuela) and New Zealand all experienced warming. The net temperature change was a relatively modest cooling of 0.6 °C (1.1 °F). Temperature changes of the Younger Dryas lasted 1,150–1,300 years. According to the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the Younger Dryas ended around 11,700 years ago, although some research places it closer to 11,550 years ago.

The end of Younger Dryas was also abrupt: in previously cooled areas, warming to previous levels took place over 50–60 years. The tropics experienced more gradual temperature recovery over several centuries; the exception was in tropical Atlantic areas such as Costa Rica, where temperature change was similar to Greenland's. The Holocene warming then proceeded across the globe, following an increase in carbon dioxide levels during the YD period (from ~210 ppm to ~275 ppm).

Ice cover

Younger Dryas cooling was often accompanied by glacier advance and lowering of the regional snow line, with evidence found in areas such as Scandinavia, the Swiss Alps and the Dinaric Alps in the Balkans, northern ranges of North America's Rocky Mountains, Two Creeks Buried Forest in Wisconsin and western parts of the New York State, and in the Pacific Northwest, including the Cascade Range. The entire Laurentide ice sheet had advanced between west Lake Superior and southeast Quebec, leaving behind a layer of rock debris (moraine) dated to this period. Southeastern Alaska appears to have escaped glaciation; speleothem calcite deposition continued in the region despite being retarded, indicating the absence of permafrost and glaciation.

On the other hand, the warming of the Southern Hemisphere led to ice loss in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. Moreover, while Greenland as a whole had cooled, glaciers had only grown in the north of the island, and they had retreated from the rest of Greenland's coasts. This was likely driven by the strengthened Irminger Current. The Jabllanica mountain range in the Balkans also experienced ice loss and glacial retreat: this was likely caused by the drop in annual precipitation, which would have otherwise frozen and helped to maintain the glaciers. Unlike now, the glaciers were still present in northern Scotland, but they had thinned during the Younger Dryas.

The amount of water contained within glaciers directly influences global sea levels – sea level rise occurs if the glaciers retreat, and it drops if glaciers grow. Altogether, there appears to have been little change in sea level throughout the Younger Dryas. This is in contrast to rapid increases before and after, such as the Meltwater Pulse 1A. On the coasts, glacier advance and retreat also affects relative sea level. Western Norway experienced a relative sea level rise of 10 m (32+2⁄3 ft) as the Scandinavian ice sheet advanced. Notably, ice sheet advance in this area appears to have begun about 600 years before the global onset of the Younger Dryas. Underwater, the deposits of methane clathrate – methane frozen into ice – remained stable throughout the Younger Dryas, including during the rapid warming as it ended.

Weather systems

As the Northern Hemisphere cooled and the Southern Hemisphere warmed, the thermal equator would have shifted to the south. Because trade winds from either hemisphere cancel each other out above the thermal equator in a calm, heavily clouded area known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a change in its position affects wind patterns elsewhere. For instance, in East Africa, the sediments of Lake Tanganyika were mixed less strongly during this period, indicating weaker wind systems in this area. Shifts in atmospheric patterns are believed to be the main reason why Northern Hemisphere summers generally did not cool during the Younger Dryas.

Since winds carry moisture in the form of clouds, these changes also affect precipitation. Thus, evidence from the pollen record shows that some areas have become very arid, including Scotland, the North American Midwest, Anatolia and southern China. As North Africa, including the Sahara Desert, became drier, the amount of dust blown by wind had also increased. Other areas became wetter including northern China (possibly excepting the Shanxi region)

Biosphere

The Younger Dryas was initially discovered around the start of the 20th century, through paleobotanical and lithostratigraphic studies of Swedish and Danish bog and lake sites, particularly the Allerød clay pit in Denmark. The analysis of fossilized pollen had consistently shown how Dryas octopetala, a plant which only thrives in glacial conditions, began to dominate where forests were able to grow during the preceding B–A Interstadial. This makes the Younger Dryas a key example of how biota responded to abrupt climate change.

For instance, in what is now New England, cool summers, combined with cold winters and low precipitation, resulted in a treeless tundra up to the onset of the Holocene, when the boreal forests shifted north. Along the southern margins of the Great Lakes, spruce dropped rapidly, while pine increased, and herbaceous prairie vegetation decreased in abundance, but increased west of the region. The central Appalachian Mountains remained forested during the Younger Dryas, but they were covered in spruce and tamarack boreal forests, switching to temperate broadleaf and mixed forests during the Holocene. Conversely, pollen and macrofossil evidence from near Lake Ontario indicates that cool, boreal forests persisted into the early Holocene.

An increase of pine pollen indicates cooler winters within the central Cascades. Speleothems from the Oregon Caves National Monument and Preserve in southern Oregon's Klamath Mountains yield evidence of climatic cooling contemporaneous to the Younger Dryas. On the Olympic Peninsula, a mid-elevation site recorded a decrease in fire, but forest persisted and erosion increased during the Younger Dryas, which suggests cool and wet conditions. Speleothem records indicate an increase in precipitation in southern Oregon, the timing of which coincides with increased sizes of pluvial lakes in the northern Great Basin. Pollen record from the Siskiyou Mountains suggests a lag in timing of the Younger Dryas, indicating a greater influence of warmer Pacific conditions on that range.

Effects in the Rocky Mountain region were varied. Several sites show little to no changes in vegetation. In the northern Rockies, a significant increase in pines and firs suggests warmer conditions than before and a shift to subalpine parkland in places. That is hypothesized to be the result of a northward shift in the jet stream, combined with an increase in summer insolation as well as a winter snow pack that was higher than today, with prolonged and wetter spring seasons.

Human societies

Northwestern Europe faced a significant population reduction during the first half of the Younger Dryas.

The Younger Dryas is often linked to the Neolithic Revolution, with the adoption of agriculture in the Levant. The cold and dry Younger Dryas arguably lowered the carrying capacity of the area and forced the sedentary early Natufian population into a more mobile subsistence pattern. Further climatic deterioration is thought to have brought about cereal cultivation. While relative consensus exists regarding the role of the Younger Dryas in the changing subsistence patterns during the Natufian, its connection to the beginning of agriculture at the end of the period is still being debated.

Cause

The scientific consensus links the Younger Dryas with a significant reduction or shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, which circulates warm tropical waters northward through the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is consistent with climate model simulations, as well as a range of proxy evidence, such as the decreased ventilation (exposure to oxygen from the surface) of the lowest layers of North Atlantic water. Cores from the western subtropical North Atlantic show that the "bottom water" lingered there for 1,000 years, twice the age of Late Holocene bottom waters from the same site around 1,500 BP. Further, the otherwise anomalous warming of the southeastern United States matches the hypothesis that as the AMOC weakened and transported less heat from the Caribbean towards Europe through the North Atlantic Gyre, more of it would stay trapped in the coastal waters.

It was originally hypothesized that the massive outburst from paleohistorical Lake Agassiz had flooded the North Atlantic via the Saint Lawrence Seaway, but little geological evidence for this hypothesis has been found. For instance, the salinity in the Saint Lawrence Seaway did not decline, as would have been expected from massive quantities of meltwater. More recent research instead shows that floodwaters followed a pathway along the Mackenzie River in present-day Canada, and sediment cores show that the strongest outburst had occurred right before the onset of Younger Dryas.

Other factors are also likely to have played a major role in the Younger Dryas climate. For instance, some research suggests climate in Greenland was primarily affected by the melting of then-present Fennoscandian ice sheet, which could explain why Greenland experienced the most abrupt climatic changes during the YD. Climate models also indicate that a single freshwater outburst, no matter how large, would not have been able to weaken the AMOC for over 1,000 years, as required by the Younger Dryas timeline, unless other factors were also involved. Some modelling explains this by showing that the melting of Laurentide Ice Sheet led to greater rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean, freshening it and so helping to weaken the AMOC. Once the Younger Dryas began, lowered temperatures would have elevated snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere, increasing the ice-albedo feedback. Further, melting snow would be more likely to flood back into the North Atlantic than rainfall would, as less water would be absorbed into the frozen ground. Other modelling shows that sea ice in the Arctic Ocean could have been tens of meters thick by the onset of the Younger Dryas, so that it would have been able to shed icebergs into the North Atlantic, which would have been able to weaken the circulation consistently. Notably, changes in sea ice cover would have had no impact on sea levels, which is consistent with the absence of significant sea level rise during the Younger Dryas, and particularly during its onset.

Some scientists also explain the lack of sea level rise during the Younger Dryas onset by connecting it with a volcanic eruption. Eruptions often deposit large quantities of sulfur dioxide particles in the atmosphere, where they are known as aerosols, and can have a large cooling effect by reflecting sunlight. This phenomenon can also be caused by anthropogenic sulfur pollution, where it is known as global dimming. Cooling from a high latitude volcanic eruption could have accelerated North Atlantic sea ice growth, finally tipping the AMOC sufficiently to cause the Younger Dryas. Cave deposits and glacial ice cores both contain evidence of at least one major volcanic eruption taking place in the northern hemisphere at a time close to Younger Dryas onset, perhaps even completely matching the stalagmite-derived date for the onset of the Younger Dryas event. It has been suggested that this eruption would have been stronger than any during the Common Era, some of which have been able to cause several decades of cooling.

According to 1990s research, the Laacher See eruption (present-day volcanic lake in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany) would have matched the criteria, but radiocarbon dating done in 2021 pushes the date of the eruption back to 13,006 years BP, or over a century before the Younger Dryas began. This analysis was also challenged in 2023, with some researchers suggesting that the radiocarbon analysis was tainted by magmatic carbon dioxide.

Work published in 2026 examining deposits at three sites in the North America and advances in dating of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice cores is consistent with three major Northern Hemisphere eruptions and one major Southern Hemisphere eruption during the period of the Younger Dryas so volcanic eruptions may have contributed to the change in climate.

For now, the debate continues without a conclusive proof or rejection of the volcanic hypothesis.

It has also been suggested that the supernova that caused the Vela Supernova Remnant could have been a trigger to the Younger Dryas event.

Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis (YDIH) attributes the cooling to the impact of a disintegrating comet or asteroid. Because there is no impact crater dating to the Younger Dryas period, the proponents usually suggest the impact had struck the Laurentide ice sheet, so that the crater would have disappeared when the ice sheet melted during the Holocene, or that it was an airburst, which would only leave micro- and nanoparticles behind as evidence. Most experts reject the hypothesis, and argue that all of the microparticles are adequately explained by the terrestrial processes. For instance, mineral inclusions from YD-period sediments in Hall's Cave, Texas, have been interpreted by YDIH proponents as extraterrestrial in origin, while a paper published in 2020 argues that they are more likely to be volcanic. Opponents argue that there is no evidence for the massive wildfires which they assert would have been caused by an airburst of sufficient size to affect the thermohaline circulation, nor any mineralogical or geochemical evidence for the simultaneous human population declines and mass animal extinctions that would ensue from such an impact.

Similar events

Statistical analysis shows that the Younger Dryas is merely the last of 25 or 26 Dansgaard–Oeschger events (D–O events) over the past 120,000 years. These episodes are characterized by abrupt changes in the AMOC on timescales of decades or centuries. The Younger Dryas is the best known and best understood because it is the most recent, but it is fundamentally similar to the previous cold phases over the past 120,000 years. This similarity makes the impact hypothesis very unlikely, and it may also contradict the Lake Agassiz hypothesis. On the other hand, some research links volcanism with D–O events, potentially supporting the volcanic hypothesis.

Events similar to the Younger Dryas appear to have occurred during the other terminations - a term used to describe a comparatively rapid transition from cold glacial conditions to warm interglacials. The analysis of lake and marine sediments can reconstruct past temperatures from the presence or absence of certain lipids and long chain alkenones, as these molecules are very sensitive to temperature. This analysis provides evidence for YD-like events during Termination II (the end of the Marine Isotope Stage 6, ~130,000 years BP), III (the end of Marine Isotope Stage 8, ~243,000 years BP) and Termination IV (the end of Marine Isotope Stage 10, ~337,000 years BP. When combined with additional evidence from ice cores and paleobotanical data, some have argued that YD-like events inevitably occur during every deglaciation.