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2002 Atlantic hurricane season

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atmospheric pressure and Cuba

The most intense hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isidore, a Category 3 storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 934 mbar (27.6 inHg); however, Hurricane Lili, with a minimum pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg), attained higher winds and peaked at Category 4 status. Both storms also accounted for most of the deaths and damage during the 2002 season. Isidore caused about $1.28 billion in damage and killed seven people in the Yucatán Peninsula and later the United States, and Hurricane Lili, which caused $1.12 billion in damage and 15 deaths as it crossed the Caribbean Sea and eventually made landfall in Louisiana. Collectively, the cyclones of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season caused approximately $2.43 billion in damage and 50 fatalities.

Seasonal forecasts

Noted hurricane expert William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Gray's team determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 7, 2001, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2002 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and about 2 of Category 3 or higher). It listed an 86 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland. This included a 58 percent chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and a 43 percent chance of at least one such strike on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average.

On April 5 a new forecast was issued, calling for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. The decrease in the forecast was attributed to the further intensification of El Niño conditions. The estimated potential for at least one major hurricane to affect the U.S. was decreased to 75 percent; the East Coast potential decreased slightly to 57 percent, and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability remained the same.

NOAA issued their first seasonal forecast on May 20, predicting 9–13 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes. The government agency stated that the season would most likely be near-average because of a combination of the ongoing high-activity era and an expected weak El Niño, but acknowledged some uncertainty existed due to a lack of strong El Niño or La Niña conditions.

Mid-season forecasts

On August 7, Gray's team lowered its season estimate to 9 named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane, noting that conditions had become less favorable for storms than they had been earlier in the year. The sea-level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic were reported to be above normal, while sea surface temperature anomalies were on a decreasing trend.

On August 8, NOAA revised its season estimate to 7–10 named storms, with 4–6 becoming hurricanes and 1–3 becoming major hurricanes. The reduction was attributed to less favorable environmental conditions and building El Niño conditions.

Gray and his forecast team at CSU decreased their seasonal predictions again on September 3, calling for 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, with Gray noting an "unusual and unexpected massive rearrangement of global ocean and atmospheric conditions the last three to four months". This included below normal sea surface temperatures, an intensifying El Niño, and abnormally strong sea-level pressure, easterly trade winds, and upper tropospheric westerly winds.

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