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2008 Atlantic hurricane season

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This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season . The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sus
MarioProtIV · Public domain

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Through Atlantic Ocean, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Cuba

The season was devastating for Haiti, where nearly 800 people were killed by four consecutive tropical cyclones (Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike), especially Hurricane Hanna, in August and September. These four storms caused about $1 billion in damage in Haiti alone. The precursor to Kyle and the outer rain bands of Paloma also impacted Haiti. Cuba also received extensive impacts from Gustav, Ike, and Paloma, with Gustav and Ike making landfall in the country at major hurricane intensity and Paloma being a Category 2 when striking the nation. More than $10 billion in damage and 8 deaths occurred there.

Ike was the most destructive storm of the season, as well as the strongest in terms of minimum barometric pressure, devastating Cuba as a major hurricane and later making landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a large high-end Category 2 hurricane. One very unusual feat was a streak of tropical cyclones affecting land, with all but one system impacting land in 2008. The unusual number of storms with impact led to one of the deadliest and destructive seasons in the history of the Atlantic basin, especially with Ike, as its overall damages made it the second-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, although it has since been surpassed by several hurricanes.

Seasonal forecasts

Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU) – as well as forecasters at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Met Office (UKMO), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), Weather Services International (WSI) – issued forecasts of hurricane activity prior to the start of the season.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defines the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, with 5 to 7 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.

Pre-season forecasts

The first forecast for the 2008 hurricane season was released by CSU on December 7, 2007. In its report, the organization predicted 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an annual Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 115 units. The odds of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the United States were projected to be above average. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. It is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 39 mph (63 km/h), which is the threshold for tropical storm strength. The odds of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the United States were projected to be above average in the CSU forecast.

Three days later, TSR—a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London—called for a very active season featuring 15.4 (±4.7) named storms, 8.3 (±3.0) hurricanes, 3.7 (±1.8) major hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 149 (±66) units. Mirroring CSU, the group assigned high probabilities that the United States and Lesser Antilles landfalling ACE index would be above average. On January 3, 2008, WSI projected 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

In April, CSU slightly raised their values owing to a favorable Atlantic sea surface temperature configuration during the preceding month, upping the projected numbers to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. TSR, in contrast, slightly reduced their numbers on April 7 due to cooler projections for Atlantic Ocean temperatures compared to their December forecast. WSI on April 23 raised the expected number of hurricanes from 7 to 8 and major hurricanes from 3 to 4 while leaving the number of named storms unchanged. On May 22, the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced their first seasonal outlook for the 2008 season, highlighting 65 percent odds of an above-normal season, 25 percent odds for a near-normal season, and 10 percent odds of a below-average season. A range of 12 to 16 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes was provided, each with 60 to 70 percent probability. The CPC, alongside TSR and CSU, highlighted the ongoing multi-decadal period of enhanced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, the ongoing La Niña in the Pacific, and warmer than average ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Atlantic as the basis for their predictions.

Midseason outlooks

On June 3, CSU released an updated outlook for the season but left their values from April unchanged. Examining conditions in April and May, the organization compiled a list of hurricane seasons with similar conditions: 1951, 1961, 2000, and 2001. TSR slightly lowered their numbers in their June 5 update but continued to predict an above-average season. Meanwhile, on June 18, the UKMO released their seasonal forecast, assessing a 70 percent probability the number of tropical storms would fall between 10 and 20, with 15 tropical storms noted as the most likely value in 2008. No projections for the number of hurricanes, major hurricanes, or ACE were given. On July 2, WSI held firm to their April forecast; the organization was forced to slightly increase the number of named storms and hurricanes later that month. On July 4, TSR slightly raised their forecast. Following an active start to the season, CSU upped their predictions in an August 5 update, calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 175 units. TSR released their final outlook for the season that day, raising their values to 18.2 (±2.9) named storms, 9.7 (±1.7) hurricanes, 4.5 (±1.4) major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 191 (±42) units. On August 7, NOAA's CPC raised their probability of an above-average season from 65 percent to 85 percent. The final outlook yielded a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. WSI, meanwhile, issued their final seasonal outlook on August 27, reaffirming their numbers from the previous month.

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