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2010 Atlantic hurricane season

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This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season . The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sus
MarioProtIV · Public domain

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Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Despite the high number of hurricanes, none hit the United States. However, numerous tropical cyclones affected countries bordering the Atlantic Ocean throughout 2010. Alex caused 52 deaths and up to $1.52 billion (2010 USD) in damage as it struck northern Mexico in June. The next month, Tropical Storm Bonnie struck Florida as a weak cyclone, leaving one dead. Tropical Storm Colin led to one drowning death, and rip currents produced by Tropical Depression Five killed two people. Hurricane Danielle passed east of Bermuda while Earl moved parallel to the East Coast of the United States and into Nova Scotia throughout late August, resulting in 2 and 8 deaths, respectively. In early September, Tropical Storm Hermine caused significant flooding across Texas and killed 8 people. The strongest hurricane of the year, Igor, killed four as it traversed the Atlantic and across Newfoundland. Latin America was badly hit by Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew, with 22 and 126 deaths, respectively. In late September, Tropical Storm Nicole produced torrential rainfall from the Caribbean into the U.S. East Coast, resulting in 16 fatalities. Hurricane Paula caused a tourist to drown offshore Cozumel in mid-October, while Hurricane Richard left two dead in Belize later that month. The season concluded with Tomas which caused 35 fatalities along its track through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic.

Seasonal forecasts

Before and during each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1950 and 2005 contained 10.3 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. Therefore, a storm with a longer duration will have high values of ACE. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included in the count. After the storm has dissipated, typically after the end of the season, the NHC re-examines the data and produces a final report on each storm. These revisions can lead to a revised ACE total either upward or downward compared to the original value. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are occasionally considered as well.

Pre-season forecasts

On December 7, 2009, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued their first extended range outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13.9 named storms, 7.4 hurricanes, 3.4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 135 units. The organization referenced two main factors, slower trade winds across the Caribbean and above-average ocean temperatures across the Atlantic, for an above-average season. Two days later, Colorado State University (CSU) issued their first extended range outlook, projecting 11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, 3 to 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 100 to 162 units. The organization stated that although a strong El Niño event was ongoing at the release of their forecast, a continuation of a warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation was unlikely to persist through the hurricane season. On January 27, 2010, The Weather Company (formerly WSI) called for the year to feature 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

CSU issued a more detailed update on April 7, upping their forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 150. More confidence in the weakening of El Niño (and thus lower vertical wind shear) and the continuation of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean were cited. Two days later, TSR revised their forecast upward to 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 159 units. In their April 21 update, WSI predicted the most active year since the record-breaking 2005 season, with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Five days later, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released their only forecast for the season, with 15 to 18 named storms and 8 to 11 hurricanes. TSR largely maintained their forecast for their May 25 release. The next day, TWC/WSI again raised their forecast to 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. NOAA, meanwhile, released their forecast prediction for the 2010 season on May 27. The organization called for an active to extremely active year including 14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes, referencing a continuation of the active era that began in 1995.

Mid-season outlooks

On the first day of the 2010 Atlantic season, Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU) released their only predictions, forecasting 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units. The next day, CSU upped their forecast to 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. On June 4, TSR followed suit, with 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 182 units. The United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMET) released their only prediction for the season on June 17, with the most likely number of tropical storms being 20 and the most likely value of the ACE index being 204 units. On June 23, TWC/WSI once again upped their forecast, noting 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. TSR issued their boldest predictions on July 6, with 19.1 named storms, 10.4 hurricanes, 4.8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 203 units.

Following a slightly less active June and July than originally anticipated, TWC/WSI downgraded their number of named storms from 20 to 19 on July 21, but kept their June numbers of 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes untouched. In their final seasonal prediction on August 4, CSU left their June numbers the same, predicting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 185 units. That same day, TSR reduced their predictions for their final seasonal outlook, expecting 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 183 units. On August 5, NOAA announced the official development of La Niña in their last seasonal outlook. The organization lowered the upper bounds of their forecast compared to May due to less early season activity than expected, in all predicting 14 to 20 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes. TWC/WSI issued two final forecasts on August 25 and September 22, both expecting 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes was increased from 5 to 6 in their September update, however.

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