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2019 Linwood tornado

2019 EF4 tornado in Kansas, U.S.

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Through Tornado

The tornado traveled 29.07 miles (46.78 km) through portions of the two counties, nearly granting it long-track status. It reached a maximum width of a mile, or 1,760 yards (1.61 km) during its 55-minute lifespan across portions of the western Kansas City metropolitan area. It caused four injuries and no reported fatalities, before dissipating west of Bonner Springs, Kansas. The tornado, per the National Centers for Environmental Information as of June 2026, was the last violent tornado to take place in Kansas, and in the U.S. during the 2010s.

Meteorological synopsis

Episode narrative

The night prior

At approximately past 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC) on Memorial Day, May 27, 2019, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (NOAA SPC) issued two level 3/5 enhanced risk outlooks for portions of the western and eastern regions of the central United States. The western enhanced risk was situated over the High Plains, across parts of western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and extreme northwestern Kansas. The eastern sector was situated primarily on the Indiana/Ohio state border region, along with a sliver of the risk also in extreme southern Michigan. Attention was mainly put over in that region along the Great Lakes, as a threat for severe weather, in the form of thunderstorms, large hail, and damaging wind gusts were predicted to take place during the evening of May 27. A 10% hatched, tornado contour was outlined over the upper Ohio River Valley, while two 5% tornado risk zones existed over the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma, and another from north-central Kansas northwestwards to the Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado.

Hours in advance

Into the overnight hours at around 2:00 AM CDT (07:00 UTC) on Tuesday, May 28, the SPC forecasts were changed to include a large enhanced risk over the eastern Great Plains and Midwest, which spanned over northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western and northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and extreme western Illinois. A second enhanced zone also was spread over predominantly Pennsylvania. In the Great Plains sector, 10% and 30% hatched tornado and damaging wind contours were set up across the Iowa/Missouri state border region, while a 30% hatched threat for large hail stretched from southwestern Iowa to northern Oklahoma. It was cited that severe weather was to be initiated by a slow and eastward moving, upper-level trough that was certain to move into the region. Just before 8:30 AM CDT (13:30 UTC) the same day, the SPC issued a "Public Severe Weather Outlook" (PWO) and a level 4/5 categorical moderate risk over in the Great Plains sector, from northeastern Kansas to western Illinois. A 15% tornado risk was stationed over the Iowa/Kansas/Missouri/Nebraska quad-state border area, with an extensive 10% hatched risk that sat in the same spot as the categorical level 4/5 risk. Two large 30% hatched wind and hail outlooks also were forecasted over the region.

Around 11:30 AM CDT (16:30 UTC) or five hours since the last forecast, SPC meteorologists downgraded the tornado potential from a 15% to a 10% risk, though the hatched zone stayed. A closed, mid-level low-pressure area that originated from Colorado, was predicted to slowly move to the northeast towards Nebraska overnight. At the surface, a cyclone stationed in north-central Kansas moved east-northeast into extreme northwestern Missouri. Accompanying the cyclone, a cold front trailed southeastward across western and central Kansas, into parts of northwestern Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle area. Located south of the cyclone, a dry line was forecasted to sharpen over western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. East of the low, a deep east-west front, supported by a convective gust front in the morning hours, was to persist across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. These surface fronts provided the main foci for the development of severe thunderstorms. There was a possibility that elevated thunderstorms, could persist into the afternoon as low-level winds destabilize and convection began interacting with a baroclinic zone, in northeast Kansas. The convection was certain to occur at surface-level at noon, in an environment that was favorable for supercell development. The likelihood of tornadoes was there for any semi-discrete supercell in this region, alongside more complex storm-boundary interactions. Forecasters also noted the possibility of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) being inevitable, as convection were to grow upscale into the later noon hours. The MCS was expected traverse across the Iowa/Missouri border region during the evening, with an accompanying damaging wind and large hail threat.

Event narrative

Ongoing thunderstorms

Past 12:00 PM CDT (17:00 UTC) on May 28, the SPC issued a mesoscale discussion (MCD) pertaining the probability to issue a tornado watch for eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, as the likelihood of tornadoes became more evident. A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved in a northeastward trajectory, however remained elevated due to the Mean Layer Convective Inhibition (MLCIN) remaining put per one mesoanalysis issued an hour earlier, at 11:00 AM CDT (16:00 UTC). Despite the MLCIN in place, reports of severe hail emerged from Marion County, Kansas, due to some supportive factors. Atmospheric soundings suggested that the mid-level capping inversion was to decay by 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC). Next to that, additional convection was thought to develop in the vicinity of the warm front and warm sector, in a large area of northeastern Kansas. Any storms that were located in the cluster became surface-based and latch onto the warm front, were to pose a tornado threat due to the enhancement of low-level wind shear being present from the aforementioned front.

By nearly 3:00 PM (20:00 UTC), the final outlooks were issued. Vertical wind profiles and 40–50 kn (46–58 mph; 74–93 km/h) bulk shear, were helpful enough to sustain supercells with damaging hail. The low-level mesocyclone and tornado threat continued to rise, particularly toward the evening. This was especially due to the low-level jet streak, which deepened and augmented per the 0–1 km (0.00–0.62 mi) hodograph.

Initiation of the parent supercell

Around the same time the 2000z storm outlooks were issued, a supercell fired up in the open warm sector over the Flint Hills, soon responsible for the EF4 tornado and other twisters in a family. The storm organized as it approached the potent gust front to the southwest of Kansas City. Issued at 5:12 PM CDT (22:12 UTC), another MCD cited about intense thunderstorm development occurring in an area from Emporia to Topeka, Kansas, as well to the north of the stalled gust front from St. Joseph, Missouri in the direction of the Iowa/Missouri border, which is generally centered in a zone of warm advection on the nose of the plume of dry, capping-Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) air. This lift, which when added alongside with the seasonably high moist inflow, and characterized by potent Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values of 2000 joules per kilogram or greater, was expected to aid in upscale convective growth towards the early evening.

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