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2023 Clarksville tornado

2023 EF3 tornado across Tennessee and Kentucky, USA

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Through Tornado, Storm and Atmosphere

The Clarksville tornado, alongside the Hendersonville tornado, was one of two deadly tornadoes of the outbreak. Approximately four people were killed and 62 others were injured as well exclusively in Tennessee. Most of the damage was inflicted in that state, but also in Kentucky. The tornado itself was the last storm rated EF3 within the state of Tennessee during the 2023 season. It was also the strongest to directly hit the city of Clarksville since another tornado, rated F3 struck on January 22, 1999.

Meteorological synoptics

Model forecasts

A day prior at 01:00 UTC (7:00 PM CST) on December 8, 2023, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a marginal risk of severe storms from northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Missouri Ozarks, with nearly all of Arkansas included. A 5% risk for hail covered the area, where as a 2% tornado risk was in place for west-central Arkansas. At 13:00 UTC (7:00 AM CST) on December 9, the SPC drastically upgraded their outlooks as a large slight risk zone for a 15% wind risk covered both the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. A large 5% tornado risk was issued over southeastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, north-central Mississippi, northern Alabama, northwestern Georgia, west-central Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. A 15% hail risk was also in place from northeastern Louisiana to extreme southwestern Kentucky. In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a positively-tilted trough amplified and moved to the east across the central continental United States in response to two shortwave troughs that accompanied it. One of the troughs had a northern stream perturbation, manifesting as a closed cyclone from Nebraska to Minnesota. It was expected that this trough would devolve into an open-wave across Wisconsin later in the day. A second trough consisted of an elongated vorticity banner and a jet streak, which were present over the Four Corners region. Forecasters noted that this specific trough to the south would reorient into a positively-tilted one as it moved and positioned itself from southeastern New Mexico to southeastern Kansas. Changing from this, the second southern trough would likely absorb the southern portion of the first northern trough's vorticity field. The reformed perturbation would extend from south-central Texas, to central Arkansas to southern Illinois for the following day at 12:00 UTC (6:00 AM CST) December 10. Surface analysis at 11:00 UTC (5:00 AM CST) on December 9 revealed a weakened low-pressure area, with a cold front draped southwestward to a triple point over the Ozarks to the Trans-Pecos region. The cold front was forecasted to extend throughout much of the United States north to south, and move towards the portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by 12:00 UTC (6:00 AM CST).

For the area within the slight risk, bands of thunderstorms were expected to form ahead the cold front as early as midday in eastern Arkansas. As activity would set into the later hours, damaging wind gusts, sporadic hail to varying levels and some tornadoes were possible. The Mid-south and Tennessee River Valley areas were considered relatively maximized due to favorable supercell parameter space. However, there were concerns regarding storm modes, with a potential of messy and convective modes with a short duration of supercell thunderstorm production noted through the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Despite many questionable events at play for a conditional risk, this was not to rule out the possibility of a longer-lived tornado threat. Deep wind shear and hodographs were foreseen strengthening northward, with approximately 200-300 M/S2 of storm relative helicity being largely present around the area where the warm front was stationed within Tennessee and Mississippi, prior to the arrival of storms from eastern Arkansas. Mixed layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) between 500 and 800 J/KG and 1500-2000 J/KG were predicted to be present over the Ohio River Valley and Mississippi River Delta regions, providing enough fuel for supercell activity. Dew points were to be within the 50° degree Fahrenheit (10° Celsius) range and relatively colder temperatures presented themselves over the Ohio River Valley.

After initiation

In midst of ongoing discrete thunderstorms on December 9, the SPC upgraded the forecasting outlooks to an enhanced risk for tornadoes at 20:00 UTC (2:00 PM CST), as a 10% hatched tornado risk was issued from mainly northern Mississippi to areas southwest of Nashville, Tennessee. These storms remained discrete as they developed in a pocket of instability adjacent to the low-level wind shear over the enhanced risk. A favorable storm mode and effective storm relative helicity values of 150-200 M/S2 posed a damaging tornado threat for the area through the later hours of the day. Though the greatest area of risk remained small, an isolated strong tornado or two were not to be precluded within the warm sector.

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