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2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes

Major earthquakes in the Turkey–Syria border region

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2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake
Adem · CC BY-SA 4.0

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The 7.8 earthquake is the largest to strike Turkey since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake of the same magnitude, and jointly the second-largest in the country, after larger estimates for the 1668 North Anatolia earthquake. It is also one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded in the Levant. It was felt as far as Egypt and the Black Sea coast of Turkey. There were more than 30,000 aftershocks in the three months that followed. The seismic sequence was the result of shallow strike-slip faulting along segments of the Dead Sea Transform, East Anatolian and Sürgü–Çardak faults.

Damaged roads, winter storms, and disruption to communications hampered the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency's rescue and relief effort, which included 60,000 search-and-rescue workers, 5,000 health workers and 30,000 volunteers. Following Turkey's call for international help, more than 141,000 people from 94 countries joined the rescue effort.

There was widespread damage in an area of about 350,000 km2 (140,000 sq mi), about the size of Germany. An estimated 14 million people, or 16 percent of Turkey's population, were affected. Development experts from the United Nations estimated that about 1.5 million people were left homeless.

The confirmed death toll in Turkey was 53,537; estimates of the number of dead in Syria were between 5,951 and 8,476. It is the deadliest earthquake in present-day Turkey since the 526 Antioch earthquake and the deadliest natural disaster in Turkey's modern history. It is also the deadliest in present-day Syria since the 1822 Aleppo earthquake; the deadliest earthquake or natural disaster worldwide since the 2010 Haiti earthquake; and the fifth-deadliest earthquake of the 21st century. The damage was estimated at US$150 billion in Turkey, or nine percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), and US$9 billion in Syria, or 18 percent of its GDP.

Tectonic setting

Geology

Central southern Turkey and northwestern Syria are affected by the interaction between three tectonic plates: the African plate, Arabian plate, and Anatolian sub-plate. The boundary between the African and Arabian plates is represented by the Dead Sea Transform (DST)—a major zone of left-lateral strike-slip fault—it accommodates the relative northward movement of Arabia with respect to Africa. The northern end of the DST truncates at the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), another major left-lateral strike-slip fault zone that accommodates the overall westward movement of the Anatolian plate as it is extruded in that direction by the northward movement of the Arabian plate. The DST and EAF meet at the Marash triple junction. The EAF continues west of the triple junction, forming the boundary between the African and Anatolian plates, linking into the Cyprus arc to the west via the Latakia Ridge.

The 700 km-long (430 mi) EAF is subdivided into seven segments, from the northeast; the Karlıova, Ilıca, Palu, Pütürge, Erkenek, Pazarcık and Amanos segments. The Amanos segment is also considered part of the DST by some geologists, or a transitional structure between the EAF and DST by others. A northern strand to the EAF has also been recognized, including the Sürgü, Çardak, Savrun, Çokak, Toprakkale, Yumurtalık, Karataş, Yakapınar and Düziçi–İskenderun segments. The estimated slip rate on the main strand of the EAF system decreases south-westwards from 10 mm (0.39 in) per year on the Karlıova segment down to 2.9 mm (0.11 in) per year on the Amanos segment. On the northern strand, a slip rate of 2.5 mm (0.098 in) per year was estimated on the Çardak segment. The Sürgü-Çardak Fault is an east–west striking 160 km (99 mi) long fault that runs north of the EAF. It branches away from the EAF west of Çelikhan and extends westwards to Göksun. Comprising two segments; the Sürgü Fault runs 70 km (43 mi) between Çelikhan and Nurhak; the Çardak Fault runs 90 km (56 mi) between Nurhak and Göksun. Seismicity on the fault is low—the only associated earthquake was a M 6.8 event in 1544.

The northern part of the DST is subdivided into several segments, although there is some disagreement between scientists as to which faults should be assigned to the DST and which to the EAF, at the northernmost end of the structure. Following the 2013 "Active Fault Map of Turkey", seven DST segments are recognized in Turkey and neighbouring parts of Syria; the Afrin, Sermada, Armanaz, Hacıpaşa, Yesemek, Sakçagöz and Narlı segments.

Seismicity

The EAF has produced large or damaging earthquakes in the past few hundred years along various segments, including the 1789 (M 7.2, Palu), 1795 (M 7.0, Pazarcık), 1866 (M 7.2 Karlıova), 1872 (M 7.2, Amanos), 1874 (M 7.1, Palu), 1875 (M 6.7, Palu), 1893 (M 7.1, Erkenek), 1971 (M 6.6, Karlıova) and 2020 (M 6.8, Pütürge) events. Other large historical earthquakes have been tentatively assigned to segments of the EAF, such as the 1114 and 1513 Marash earthquakes, both thought to have ruptured the Pazarcık segment.

The Palu and Pütürge segments in the east display a recurrence interval of about 150 years for M 6.8–7.0 earthquakes. The Pazarcık and Amanos segments in the west have recurrence intervals of 237–772 years and 414–917 years, respectively, for M 7.0–7.4 earthquakes. A research paper published by Earth and Planetary Science Letters in 2002 studied stress accumulation and increased seismic hazard along the East Anatolian Fault. The study concluded two sections of the fault with a considerably high potential for future earthquakes. One of these sections was in Elazığ and Bingöl, located between the rupture zones of the 1874 and 1971 earthquakes. The seismic gap ruptured during a Mw6.1 earthquake in 2010. The 2020 Mw6.8 earthquake ruptured to the southwest between the 1893/1905 and 1874 earthquakes. Another seismic gap was located in Kahramanmaraş—this 103 km (64 mi) long section—according to the study, believed to last rupture in 1513 has the potential to produce magnitude 7.3 earthquakes.

Large earthquakes on the northern part of the DST include events in 115, 526, 587, 1138, 1170 and 1822, which resulted in several tens of thousands to several hundreds of thousands of fatalities.

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