Blindspots analysis
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Through Prejudice and Cognitive dissonance
Uncovering blind spots
Ben Gilad fully developed, in his book, Business Blindspots (1994), the following three-step "Gilad method" for uncovering blind spots
- Step One: Conducting a Five Forces Analysis on a given industry or segment (market), augmented with identification of possible change drivers, which are defined as trends with the potential to have profound (structural) effect on the balance of power among the five forces.
- Step Two: Collecting competitive intelligence on the target company’s top executives assumptions regarding the same industry structure as in Step One. Sources may include annual reports' letters to shareholders, autobiographies, interviews in the press, public appearances and speeches, industry meetings, congressional testimonies, conference calls with security analysts (transcripts are publicly available), and all other statements regarding vision and beliefs. An alternative technique is known among competitive intelligence professionals as “strategy’s reverse engineering” which looks for the underlying assumptions which can rationalize existing strategy.
- Step Three: Compare the results of Step Two with the analysis in Step One. Any contradiction with the analysis in Step One is a potential blindspot.
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Underlying assumptions
Underlying Blindspots Analysis is an assumption about the inherent biases of decision making at the top of organizations (business, government or otherwise) exceeding those of their subordinates or outsiders. While many top executives in business and government organizations are smart, capable people, they are also vulnerable to several decision biases that come with their powerful positions, including cognitive dissonance, motivated cognitions, overconfidence, and ego-involvement. The impaired ability of leaders to see reality for what it is, and the more objective (less ego-involved) analysis of analysts and mid-level planners means that Step 3 of the Blindspots Analysis can be a powerful tool for pointing to potential blinders