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Nuclear fallout

Residual radioactive material following a nuclear blast

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Two of many possible fallout patterns mapped by FEMA that could occur during a nuclear war. (Based on 1988 data.)
Federal Emergency Management Agency · Public domain

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Through Half-life, Nitrogen and Atmosphere of Earth

Fission weapons and many thermonuclear weapons use a large mass of fissionable fuel (such as uranium or plutonium), so their fallout is primarily fission products, and some unfissioned fuel. Cleaner thermonuclear weapons primarily produce fallout via neutron activation. Salted bombs, not widely developed, are tailored to produce and disperse specific radioisotopes selected for their half-life and radiation type.

Fallout can have serious human health consequences on both short- and long-term time scales, and can cause radioactive contamination far away from the areas impacted by the more immediate effects of nuclear weapons. Atmospheric and underwater nuclear weapons testing, which widely disperses fallout, was ceased by the United States, Soviet Union, and United Kingdom following the 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Underground testing, which can sometimes cause fallout via venting, was largely ceased following the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The bomb pulse, the increase in global carbon-14 formed from neutron activation of nitrogen in air, is predicted to dominate long-term effects on humans from nuclear testing, causing ill effects and death in a small fraction of the population for up to 8,000 years.

Fallout can also refer to naturally occurring radioactive materials and material released by nuclear reactor accidents. The isotopic signature of bomb fallout is very different from the fallout from a reactor accident.

Types of fallout

Fallout is usually divided into two major types, largely determined by the height of burst of the detonation. If detonated at a sufficient altitude that allows the fireball to avoid mixing significantly with ground debris, the radioactive byproducts in the fallout will generally stay aloft longer than weapons detonated at or near the surface. This additional time aloft allows the most acutely dangerous radioactive elements, with the shortest half-lives, to decay prior to their descending to the surface, reducing the overall radioactive intensity of the fallout that is deposited. This additional time also allows the radioactive cloud to diffuse over a larger area, resulting in less radioactive debris per area of land below. This more diffuse form of fallout is known as "global fallout," because its main effect is to raise background radiation exposure slightly over vast areas, and is contrasted with "local fallout," which produces a plume of concentrated radioactive byproducts downwind of the detonation within minutes or hours.

Meteorological realities can complicate these distinctions; "rainout," for example, can occur when atmospheric conditions cause precipitation from a nuclear cloud. A nuclear detonation underwater also produces a different local fallout than one on land. There have also been weapons detonated below the threshold for avoiding local fallout but that have not done so; the 50 megaton Tsar Bomba test in 1961, for example, had its fireball buoyantly boosted upwards by its reflected shockwave, preventing its mixture.

Global fallout

After the detonation of a weapon at or above the fallout-free altitude (an air burst), fission products, un-fissioned nuclear material, and weapon residues vaporized by the heat of the fireball condense into a suspension of particles 10 nm to 20 μm in diameter. This size of particulate matter, lifted to the stratosphere, may take months or years to settle, and may do so anywhere in the world. Its radioactive characteristics increase the statistical cancer risk, with one report estimating roughly 430,000 additional cancer deaths by the year 2000 and a total of 2.4 million additional cancer deaths over the next several thousand years from the measurably elevated atmospheric radioactivity after the widespread nuclear weapons testing of the 1950s, peaking in 1963 (the Bomb pulse). The additional radiation exposure (including future exposure) is estimated to amount to an average effective dose of 3.5 mSv, with global average natural background radiation levels being around 2.4 mSv per year.

Radioactive fallout has occurred around the world; for example, people have been exposed to iodine-131 from atmospheric nuclear testing. Fallout accumulates on vegetation, including fruits and vegetables. Starting from 1951 people may have gotten exposure, depending on whether they were outside, the weather, and whether they consumed contaminated milk, vegetables or fruit. Exposure can be on an intermediate time scale or long term. The intermediate time scale results from fallout that has been put into the troposphere and ejected by precipitation during the first month. Long-term fallout can sometimes occur from deposition of tiny particles carried in the stratosphere. By the time that stratospheric fallout has begun to reach the earth, the radioactivity is very much decreased. Also, after a year it is estimated that a sizable quantity of fission products move from the northern to the southern stratosphere. The intermediate time scale is between 1 and 30 days, with long term fallout occurring after that.

Examples of both intermediate and long term fallout occurred after the 1986 Chernobyl accident, which contaminated over 20,000 km2 (7,700 sq mi) of land in Ukraine and Belarus. The main fuel of the reactor was uranium, and surrounding this was graphite, both of which were vaporized by the hydrogen explosion that destroyed the reactor and breached its containment. An estimated 31 people died within a few weeks after this happened, including two plant workers killed at the scene. Although residents were evacuated within 36 hours, people started to complain of vomiting, migraines and other major signs of radiation sickness. The officials of Ukraine had to close off an area with an 18-mile (30 km) radius. Long term effects included at least 6,000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly among children. Fallout spread throughout Europe, with Northern Scandinavia receiving a heavy dose, contaminating reindeer herds in Lapland, and salad greens becoming almost unavailable in France. Some sheep farms in North Wales and the North Of England were required to monitor radioactivity levels in their flocks until the control was lifted in 2012.

Local fallout

During detonations of devices at ground level (surface burst), below the fallout-free altitude, or in shallow water, heat vaporizes large amounts of earth or water, which is drawn up into the radioactive cloud. This material becomes radioactive when it combines with fission products or other radio-contaminants, or when it is neutron-activated.

The table below summarizes the abilities of common isotopes to form fallout. Some radiation taints large amounts of land and drinking water causing formal mutations throughout animal and human life.

A surface burst generates large amounts of particulate matter, composed of particles from less than 100 nm to several millimeters in diameter—in addition to very fine particles that contribute to worldwide fallout. The larger particles spill out of the stem and cascade down the outside of the fireball in a downdraft even as the cloud rises, so fallout begins to arrive near ground zero within an hour. More than half the total bomb debris lands on the ground within about 24 hours as local fallout. Chemical properties of the elements in the fallout control the rate at which they are deposited on the ground. Less volatile elements deposit first.

Severe local fallout contamination can extend far beyond the blast and thermal effects, particularly in the case of high yield surface detonations. The ground track of fallout from an explosion depends on the weather from the time of detonation onward. In stronger winds, fallout travels faster but takes the same time to descend, so although it covers a larger path, it is more spread out or diluted. Thus, the width of the fallout pattern for any given dose rate is reduced where the downwind distance is increased by higher winds. The total amount of activity deposited up to any given time is the same irrespective of the wind pattern, so overall casualty figures from fallout are generally independent of winds. But thunderstorms can bring down activity as rain allows fallout to drop more rapidly, particularly if the mushroom cloud is low enough to be below ("washout"), or mixed with ("rainout"), the thunderstorm.

Whenever individuals remain in a radiologically contaminated area, such contamination leads to an immediate external radiation exposure as well as a possible later internal hazard from inhalation and ingestion of radiocontaminants, such as the rather short-lived iodine-131, which is accumulated in the thyroid.

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