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Probability density function

Description of continuous random distribution

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More precisely, the PDF is used to specify the probability of the random variable falling within a particular range of values, as opposed to taking on any one value. This probability is given by the integral of a continuous variable's PDF over that range, where the integral is the nonnegative area under the density function between the lowest and greatest values of the range. The PDF is nonnegative everywhere, and the area under the entire curve is equal to one, such that the probability of the random variable falling within the set of possible values is 100%.

The terms probability distribution function and probability function can also denote the probability density function. However, this use is not standard among probabilists and statisticians. In other sources, "probability distribution function" may be used when the probability distribution is defined as a function over general sets of values or it may refer to the cumulative distribution function (CDF), or it may be a probability mass function (PMF) rather than the density. Density function itself is also used for the probability mass function, leading to further confusion. In general the PMF is used in the context of discrete random variables (random variables that take values on a countable set), while the PDF is used in the context of continuous random variables. Both PMF and PDF are fundamental concepts in statistical inference.

Example

Suppose bacteria of a certain species typically live 20 to 30 hours. The probability that a bacterium lives exactly 5 hours is equal to zero (we are talking about an idealized real-valued variable, not the recorded observation). A lot of bacteria live for approximately 5 hours, but there is no chance that any given bacterium dies at exactly 5.00... hours (measured with infinite precision). However, the probability that the bacterium dies between 5 hours and 5.01 hours is quantifiable. Suppose the answer is 0.02 (i.e., 2%). Then, the probability that the bacterium dies between 5 hours and 5.001 hours should be about 0.002, since this time interval is one-tenth as long as the previous. The probability that the bacterium dies between 5 hours and 5.0001 hours should be about 0.0002, and so on.

In this example, the ratio (probability of dying during an interval) / (duration of the interval) is approximately constant, and equal to 2 per hour (or 2 hour−1). For example, there is 0.02 probability of dying in the 0.01-hour interval between 5 and 5.01 hours, and (0.02 probability / 0.01 hours) = 2 hour−1. This quantity 2 hour−1 is called the probability density for dying at around 5 hours. Therefore, the probability that the bacterium dies at 5 hours can be written as (2 hour−1) dt. This is the probability that the bacterium dies within an infinitesimal window of time around 5 hours, where dt is the duration of this window. For example, the probability that it lives longer than 5 hours, but shorter than (5 hours + 1 nanosecond), is (2 hour−1)×(1 nanosecond) ≈ 6×10−13 (using the unit conversion 3.6×1012 nanoseconds = 1 hour).

There is a probability density function f with f(5 hours) = 2 hour−1. The integral of f over any window of time (not only infinitesimal windows but also large windows) is the probability that the bacterium dies in that window.

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