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Normal distribution

Probability distribution

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Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known. Their importance is partly due to the central limit theorem. It states that the average of many statistically independent samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable—whose distribution converges to a normal distribution as the number of samples increases. Therefore, physical quantities that are expected to be the sum of many independent processes, such as measurement errors, often have distributions that are nearly normal.

Moreover, Gaussian distributions have some unique properties that are valuable in analytic studies. For instance, any linear combination of a fixed collection of independent normal deviates is a normal deviate. Many results and methods, such as propagation of uncertainty and least squares parameter fitting, can be derived analytically in explicit form when the relevant variables are normally distributed.

However, normal distributions are frequently misused in contexts where the assumption that the data are normally distributed is not met and the normal distribution is a poor model.

A normal distribution is sometimes informally called a bell curve. However, many other distributions are bell-shaped (such as the Cauchy, Student's t, and logistic distributions). (For other names, see Naming.)

The univariate probability distribution is generalized for vectors in the multivariate normal distribution and for matrices in the matrix normal distribution.

Definitions

Standard normal distribution

The simplest case of a normal distribution is known as the standard normal distribution or unit normal distribution. This is a special case when μ=0 and σ2=1, and it is described by this probability density function (or density): φ(z)=e−z2/22π. The variable ⁠z⁠ has a mean of 0 and a variance and standard deviation of 1. The density φ(z) has its peak value 12π at z=0 and inflection points at z=+1 and ⁠z=−1⁠.

Although the density above is most commonly known as the standard normal, a few authors have used that term to describe other versions of the normal distribution. Carl Friedrich Gauss, for example, once defined the standard normal as φ(z)=1πe−z2, which has a variance of ⁠12⁠, and Stephen Stigler once defined the standard normal as φ(z)=e−πz2, which has a simple functional form and a variance of σ2=12π.

General normal distribution

If ⁠Z⁠ is a standard normal deviate, then X=σZ+μ will have a normal distribution with expected value ⁠μ⁠ and standard deviation ⁠σ⁠. This is equivalent to saying that the standard normal distribution ⁠Z⁠ can be scaled/stretched by a factor of ⁠σ⁠ and shifted by ⁠μ⁠ to yield a different normal distribution, called ⁠X⁠.

Conversely, if ⁠X⁠ is a normal deviate with parameters ⁠μ⁠ and σ2, then this ⁠X⁠ distribution can be re-scaled and shifted via the formula Z=(X−μ)/σ to convert it to the standard normal distribution. This variate is also called the standardized form of ⁠X⁠.

In particular, the probability density function for ⁠X⁠ can be written in terms of the standard normal distribution ⁠φ⁠ (with zero mean and unit variance): f(x∣μ,σ2)=1σφ(x−μσ). The probability density must be scaled by 1/σ so that the integral is still 1.

Notation

The probability density function of the standard normal distribution is commonly denoted by the Greek letter phi, ⁠ϕ⁠. The variant form ⁠φ⁠ is also used.

The cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution is commonly denoted by the capital Greek letter phi, ⁠Φ⁠.

The normal distribution is often referred to as N(μ,σ2) or ⁠N(μ,σ2)⁠. When a random variable ⁠X⁠ is normally distributed with mean ⁠μ⁠ and standard deviation ⁠σ⁠, one may write

X∼N(μ,σ2).

Alternative parameterizations

Some authors advocate using the precision ⁠τ⁠ as the parameter defining the width of the distribution, instead of the standard deviation ⁠σ⁠ or the variance ⁠σ2⁠. The precision is normally defined as the reciprocal of the variance, ⁠1/σ2⁠. The formula for the distribution then becomes f(x)=τ2πe−τ(x−μ)2/2.

This choice is claimed to have advantages in numerical computations when ⁠σ⁠ is very close to zero, and simplifies formulas in some contexts, such as in the Bayesian inference of variables with multivariate normal distribution.

Alternatively, the reciprocal of the standard deviation τ′=1/σ might be defined as the precision, in which case the expression of the normal distribution becomes f(x)=τ′2πe−(τ′)2(x−μ)2/2.

According to Stigler, this formulation is advantageous because of a much simpler and easier-to-remember formula, and simple approximate formulas for the quantiles of the distribution.

Normal distributions form an exponential family with natural parameters θ1=μσ2 and θ2=−12σ2, and natural statistics x and x2. The dual expectation parameters for normal distribution are η1 = μ and η2 = μ2 + σ2.

Cumulative distribution function

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the standard normal distribution, usually denoted with the capital Greek letter ⁠Φ⁠, is the integral Φ(x)=12π∫−∞xe−t2/2dt.

The related error function erf⁡(x) gives the probability of a random variable, with normal distribution of mean 0 and variance 1/2, falling in the range ⁠[−x,x]⁠. That is: erf⁡(x)=1π∫−xxe−t2dt=2π∫0xe−t2dt.

These integrals cannot be expressed in terms of elementary functions, and are often said to be special functions. However, many numerical approximations are known; see below for more.

The two functions are closely related, namely Φ(x)=12[1+erf⁡(x2)].

For a generic normal distribution with density ⁠f⁠, mean ⁠μ⁠ and variance σ2, the cumulative distribution function is F(x)=Φ(x−μσ)=12[1+erf⁡(x−μσ2)].

The probability that x lies between a and b with a < b is thereforeP⁡(a<x≤b)=12[erf⁡(b−μσ2)−erf⁡(a−μσ2)]

The complement of the standard normal cumulative distribution function, Q(x)=1−Φ(x), is often called the Q-function, especially in engineering texts. It gives the probability that the value of a standard normal random variable ⁠X⁠ will exceed ⁠x⁠: ⁠P(X>x)⁠. Other definitions of the ⁠Q⁠-function, all of which are simple transformations of ⁠Φ⁠, are also used occasionally.

The graph of the standard normal cumulative distribution function ⁠Φ⁠ has 2-fold rotational symmetry around the point (0,1/2); that is, ⁠Φ(−x)=1−Φ(x)⁠. Its antiderivative (indefinite integral) can be expressed as follows: ∫Φ(x)dx=xΦ(x)+φ(x)+C.

An asymptotic expansion of the cumulative distribution function for large x can be derived using integration by parts: Φ(x)=12+12πe−x2/2∑n=0∞1(2n+1)!!x2n+1. where !! denotes the double factorial. For more, see Error function § Asymptotic expansion.

Taylor series representation

The Taylor series for the normal distribution ⁠φ⁠ can be derived by substituting ⁠−12x2⁠ into the Taylor series for the exponential function:

φ(x)=12π∑n=0∞(−1)nn!2nx2n

This series can be integrated term by term to obtain the Taylor series for the cumulative distribution function:

Φ(x)=12+12π∑n=0∞(−1)nn!2n(2n+1)x2n+1. However, this series is ineffective for calculation due to slow convergence, except when ⁠x⁠ is small.

Both of these series describe entire functions, which converge for all real and complex values of ⁠x⁠.

Recursive computation with Taylor series

The recurrence relation for Hermite polynomials Hen(x) may be used to efficiently construct the Taylor series expansion about any point x0: Φ(x)=∑n=0∞Φ(n)(x0)n!(x−x0)n, where: Φ(0)(x0)=12π∫−∞x0e−t2/2dtΦ(1)(x0)=12πe−x02/2Φ(n)(x0)=−(x0Φ(n−1)(x0)+(n−2)Φ(n−2)(x0)),n≥2.

Standard deviation and coverage

About 68% of values drawn from a normal distribution are within one standard deviation σ from the mean; about 95% of the values lie within two standard deviations; and about 99.7% are within three standard deviations. This is known as the 68–95–99.7 (empirical) rule, or the 3-sigma rule.

More precisely, the probability that a normal deviate lies in the range between μ−nσ and μ+nσ is given by F(μ+nσ)−F(μ−nσ)=Φ(n)−Φ(−n)=erf⁡(n2). To 12 significant digits, the values for n=1,2,…,6 are:

For large ⁠n⁠, one can use the approximation 1−p≈2nπen2

Quantile function

The quantile function of a distribution is the inverse of the cumulative distribution function. The quantile function of the standard normal distribution is called the probit function, and can be expressed in terms of the inverse error function: Φ−1(p)=2erf−1⁡(2p−1),p∈(0,1). For a normal random variable with mean ⁠μ⁠ and variance σ2, the quantile function is F−1(p)=μ+σΦ−1(p)=μ+σ2erf−1⁡(2p−1),p∈(0,1). The quantile Φ−1(p) of the standard normal distribution is commonly denoted as ⁠zp⁠. These values are used in hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals and Q–Q plots. A normal random variable ⁠X⁠ will exceed μ+zpσ with probability 1−p, and will lie outside the interval μ±zpσ with probability ⁠2(1−p)⁠. In particular, the quantile z0.975 is 1.96; therefore a normal random variable will lie outside the interval μ±1.96σ in only 5% of cases.

The following table gives the quantile zp such that ⁠X⁠ will lie in the range μ±zpσ with a specified probability ⁠p⁠. These values are useful to determine tolerance interval for sample averages and other statistical estimators with normal (or asymptotically normal) distributions. The following table shows 2erf−1⁡(p)=Φ−1(p+12), not Φ−1(p) as defined above.

For small ⁠p⁠, the quantile function has the useful asymptotic expansion Φ−1(p)=−ln⁡1p2−ln⁡ln⁡1p2−ln⁡(2π)+o(1).

Using root finding to compute the quantile function

Any of the described approaches for computing the cumulative distribution function Φ(x) can be used with Newton's method (or another root-finding algorithm such as Halley's method) to find the value of ⁠x⁠ for which ⁠Φ(x)=q⁠ for some desired quantile ⁠q⁠. For example, starting with an initial, approximately correct guess ⁠x0⁠, increasingly better approximations ⁠x1⁠, ⁠x2⁠, ... can be calculated iteratively using Newton's method with xn=xn−1−Φ(xn−1)−qφ(xn−1).

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