Typhoon Hagibis

Hagibis caused severe flooding and extreme weather that have caused serious problems. Hagibis developed from a tropical disturbance first monitored a couple hundred miles north of the Marshall Islands on October 2, 2019. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 20W. Little change occurred as it travelled west toward the Mariana Islands over the next day, but on October 5, it began quickly organizing and early that day, the system was issued with the name Hagibis by the JMA. Environmental conditions became extremely favourable for further development, and Hagibis underwent a period of explosive intensification on October 6, and became a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon in under 12 hours, the second such system of the 2019 season, before passing through the Northern Mariana Islands at peak intensity, with 10-minute sustained winds of 105 kn (195 km/h; 120 mph) and a central pressure of 915 hPa (27.02 inHg). Shortly afterwards, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, weakening before reaching a second peak intensity on October 8. Traveling toward Japan, Hagibis encountered unfavorable conditions and steady weakening commenced. On October 12, Hagibis made landfall on Japan on the Izu Peninsula near Shizuoka and the Greater Tokyo Area. By the next day, Hagibis became an extratropical low and the JMA and JTWC issued their final advisories on the system, dissipating on October 14 as it was absorbed into a low to its northeast.

Hagibis caused catastrophic destruction across much of eastern Japan. Hagibis spawned a large tornado on October 12, which struck the Ichihara area of Chiba Prefecture during the onset of Hagibis; the tornado, along with a 5.7 magnitude earthquake off the coast, caused additional damage to those areas that were damaged by Hagibis. Hagibis caused more than $17 billion (2019 USD) in damages, making it, at the time, the costliest typhoon on record until it was beaten by Typhoon Doksuri of 2023 (when not adjusted for inflation).

Meteorological history

In early October, a poorly organized and broad area of thunderstorms persisted over 1,500 km (930 mi) east of Guam. With favorable atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures prevailing, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began noting the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis on October 4, eventually issuing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert the next day. The system initially remained stationary, consolidating a center of circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) declared the disturbance a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on October 5. At the time, the system was 1,030 km (640 mi) northeast of Pohnpei, quickly developing cumulonimbus clouds around its center and establishing conducive outflow as it tracked west around the periphery of an area of high pressure. The tropical depression strengthened into a tropical storm by 18:00 UTC on October 5 while 1,560 km (970 mi) east of Guam, gaining the name Hagibis. A dominant curved rainband had begun to wrap around the center of Hagibis, signifying further organization. On October 6, the storm made a slight turn towards the west-southwest and began an accelerated period of intensification within an environment with low wind shear and atop warm waters, reaching severe tropical storm intensity at 12:00 UTC and typhoon strength six hours later as it developed a small eye.

Typhoon Hagibis entered a period of explosive intensification on October 7, with its central pressure falling 55 hPa (mbar; 1.62 inHg) in 12 hours according to the JMA. Estimates from the JTWC suggested a 185 km/h (115 mph) increase in the storm's maximum winds in 22 hours. During this phase, Hagibis maintained a pinhole eye 9 km (5.6 mi) across, encircled by a highly compact and sharply defined eyewall. The rate of intensification was among the fastest observed in the Western Pacific. According to the JMA, Hagibis reached its peak intensity at 09:00 UTC on October 7 with a minimum pressure of 915 hPa (mbar; 27.02 inHg) and 10-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (121 mph); Hagibis would maintain this intensity for 72 hours. The JTWC classified Hagibis as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon early on October 7, and later assessed peak 1-minute sustained winds of 295 km/h (185 mph), while also estimating a pressure of 890 hPa (mbar; 26.28 inHg), as Hagibis passed just south of Anatahan in the Northern Mariana Islands. Hagibis was unusually rapid in its trek through the Mariana Islands, traveling with a forward motion of 27–34 km/h (17–21 mph).

After passing the Mariana Islands, Hagibis began an eyewall replacement cycle, which halted further strengthening. As the primary eyewall began to erode, the JTWC downgraded the typhoon to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon at 00:00 UTC on October 8. Several hours later, Hagibis completed the eyewall replacement cycle and reintensified to Category 5-equivalent intensity, attaining a secondary peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (175 mph). Steady weakening began to ensue after as Hagibis began encountering increasingly unfavourable conditions and its outer rainbands began to erode. After gradual weakening, Hagibis made landfall on Shizuoka as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, with 1-minute sustained winds of 155 km/h (95 mph), at around 08:30 UTC on October 12. While over Japan, Hagibis became disorganized from high wind shear and eventually became extratropical on October 13. The remnants accelerated and moved over the Northern Pacific Ocean before being absorbed by a separate low to its northeast the following day over the Gulf of Alaska.