World energy supply and consumption

Energy conversion

Energy resources must be processed in order to make them suitable for final consumption. For example, there may be various impurities in raw coal mined or raw natural gas that was produced from an oil well that may make it unsuitable to be burned in a power plant.

Primary energy is converted in many ways to energy carriers, also known as secondary energy:

• Coal mainly goes to thermal power stations. Coke is derived by destructive distillation of bituminous coal.
• Crude oil goes mainly to oil refineries
• Natural-gas goes to natural-gas processing plants to remove contaminants such as water, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide, and to adjust the heating value. It is used as fuel gas, also in thermal power stations.
• Nuclear reaction heat is used in thermal power stations.
• Biomass is used directly or converted to biofuel.

Electricity generators are driven by steam or gas turbines in a thermal plant, or water turbines in a hydropower station, or wind turbines, usually in a wind farm. The invention of the solar cell in 1954 started electricity generation by solar panels, connected to a power inverter. Mass production of panels around the year 2000 made this economic.

Energy trade

Much primary and converted energy is traded among countries. The table lists countries with large difference of export and import in 2021, expressed in Mtoe. A negative value indicates that much energy import is needed for the economy. Russian gas exports were reduced a lot in 2022, as pipelines to Asia plus LNG export capacity is much less than the gas no longer sent to Europe.

Transport of energy carriers is done by tanker ship, tank truck, LNG carrier, rail freight transport, pipeline and by electric power transmission.

Total energy supply

Total energy supply (TES) indicates the sum of production and imports subtracting exports and storage changes. For the whole world TES nearly equals primary energy (PE) because imports and exports cancel out, but for countries TES and PE differ in quantity, and also in quality as secondary energy is involved, e.g., import of an oil refinery product. TES is all energy required to supply energy for end users.

The tables list TES and PE for some countries where these differ much, both in 2021 and TES history. Most growth of TES since 1990 occurred in Asia. The amounts are rounded and given in Mtoe. Enerdata labels TES as Total energy consumption.

25% of worldwide primary production is used for conversion and transport, and 6% for non-energy products like lubricants, asphalt and petrochemicals. In 2019 TES was 606 EJ and final consumption was 418 EJ, 69% of TES. Most of the energy lost by conversion occurs in thermal electricity plants and the energy industry own use.

Discussion about energy loss

There are different qualities of energy. Heat, especially at a relatively low temperature, is low-quality energy of random motion, whereas electricity is high-quality energy that flows smoothly through wires. It takes around 3 kWh of heat to produce 1 kWh of electricity. But by the same token, a kilowatt-hour of this high-quality electricity can be used to pump several kilowatt-hours of heat into a building using a heat pump. It turns out that the loss of useful energy incurred in thermal electricity plants is very much more than the loss due to, say, resistance in power lines, because of quality differences. Electricity can also be used in many ways in which heat cannot.

In fact, the loss in thermal plants is due to poor conversion of chemical energy of fuel to motion by combustion. Otherwise chemical energy of fuel is not inherently low-quality; for example, conversion of chemical energy to electricity in batteries can approach 100%. So energy loss in thermal plants is real loss.

One way to account for this difference and to compare them is via the substitution method. High quality energy is measured according to the amount of low-quality energy that would be needed to produce it.

Final consumption

Total final consumption (TFC) is the worldwide consumption of energy by end-users (whereas primary energy consumption (Eurostat) or total energy supply (IEA) is total energy demand and thus also includes what the energy sector uses itself and transformation and distribution losses). This energy consists of fuel (78%) and electricity (22%). The tables list amounts, expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent per year (1 Mtoe = 11.63 TWh) and how much of these is renewable energy. Non-energy products are not considered here. The data are of 2018. The world's renewable share of TFC was 18% in 2018: 7% traditional biomass, 3.6% hydropower and 7.4% other renewables.

In the period 2005–2017 worldwide final consumption of coal increased by 23%, of oil and gas increased by 18%, and that of electricity increased by 41%.

Fuel comes in three types: Fossil fuel is natural gas, fuel derived from petroleum (LPG, gasoline, kerosene, gas/diesel, fuel oil), or from coal (anthracite, bituminous coal, coke, blast furnace gas). Secondly, there is renewable fuel (biofuel and fuel derived from waste). And lastly, the fuel used for district heating.

The amounts of fuel in the tables are based on lower heating value.

The first table lists final consumption in the countries/regions which use most (85%), and per person as of 2018. In developing countries fuel consumption per person is low and more renewable. Canada, Venezuela and Brazil generate most electricity with hydropower.

The next table shows countries consuming most (85%) in Europe.

Energy for energy

Some fuel and electricity is used to construct, maintain and demolish/recycle installations that produce fuel and electricity, such as oil platforms, uranium isotope separators and wind turbines. For these producers to be economical the ratio of energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) or energy return on investment (EROI) should be large enough.

If the final energy delivered for consumption is E and the EROI equals R, then the net energy available is E-E/R. The percentage available energy is 100-100/R. For R>10 more than 90% is available but for R=2 only 50% and for R=1 none. This steep decline is known as the net energy cliff.

Availability of data

Many countries publish statistics on the energy supply and consumption of either their own country, of other countries of interest, or of all countries combined in one chart. One of the largest organizations in this field, the International Energy Agency (IEA), sells yearly comprehensive energy data which makes this data paywalled and difficult to access for internet users. The organization Enerdata on the other hand publishes a free Yearbook, making the data more accessible. Another trustworthy organization that provides accurate energy data, mainly referring to the USA, is the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Trends and outlook

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decline in energy usage worldwide in 2020, but total energy demand worldwide had recovered by 2021, and has hit a record high in 2022.

In 2022, consumers worldwide spent nearly USD 10 trillion on energy, averaging more than USD 1,200 per person. This reflects a 20% increase over the previous five-year average, highlighting the significant economic impact and the increasing financial burden of energy consumption on a global scale.

IEA scenarios

In World Energy Outlook 2023 the IEA notes that "We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030". The IEA presents three scenarios:

1. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) provides an outlook based on the latest policy settings. The share of fossil fuel in global energy supply – stuck for decades around 80% – starts to edge downwards and reaches 73% by 2030. This undercuts the rationale for any increase in fossil fuel investment. Renewables are set to contribute 80% of new power capacity to 2030, with solar PV alone accounting for more than half. The STEPS sees a peak in energy-related CO₂ emissions in the mid-2020s but emissions remain high enough to push up global average temperatures to around 2.4 °C in 2100. Total energy demand continues to increase through to 2050. Total energy investment remains at about US$3 trillion per year.
2. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes all national energy and climate targets made by governments are met in full and on time. The APS is associated with a temperature rise of 1.7 °C in 2100 (with a 50% probability). Total energy investment rises to about US$4 trillion per year after 2030.
3. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario limits global warming to 1.5 °C. The share of fossil fuel reaches 62% in 2030. Methane emissions from fossil fuel supply cuts by 75% in 2030. Total energy investment rises to almost US$5 trillion per year after 2030. Clean energy investment needs to rise everywhere, but the steepest increases are needed in emerging market and developing economies other than China, requiring enhanced international support. The share of electricity in final consumption exceeds 50% by 2050 in NZE. The share of nuclear power in electricity generation remains broadly stable over time in all scenarios, about 9%.

The IEA's "Electricity 2024" report details a 2.2% growth in global electricity demand for 2023, forecasting an annual increase of 3.4% through 2026, with notable contributions from emerging economies like China and India, despite a slump in advanced economies due to economic and inflationary pressures. The report underscores the significant impact of data centers, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, projecting a potential doubling of electricity consumption to 1,000 TWh by 2026, which is on par with Japan's current usage. Notably, 85% of the additional demand is expected to originate from China and India, with India's demand alone predicted to grow over 6% annually until 2026, driven by economic expansion and increasing air conditioning use.

Southeast Asia's electricity demand is also forecasted to climb by 5% annually through 2026. In the United States, a decrease was seen in 2023, but a moderate rise is anticipated in the coming years, largely fueled by data centers. The report also anticipates that a surge in electricity generation from low-emissions sources will meet the global demand growth over the next three years, with renewable energy sources predicted to surpass coal by early 2025.

Alternative scenarios

The goal set in the Paris Agreement to limit climate change will be difficult to achieve. Various scenarios for achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals have been developed, using IEA data but proposing transition to nearly 100% renewables by mid-century, along with steps such as reforestation. Nuclear power and carbon capture are excluded in these scenarios. The researchers say the costs will be far less than the $5 trillion per year governments currently spend subsidizing the fossil fuel industries responsible for climate change.

In the +2.0 C (global warming) Scenario total primary energy demand in 2040 can be 450 EJ = 10,755 Mtoe, or 400 EJ = 9560 Mtoe in the +1.5 Scenario, well below the current production. Renewable sources can increase their share to 300 EJ in the +2.0 C Scenario or 330 EJ in the +1.5 Scenario in 2040. In 2050 renewables can cover nearly all energy demand. Non-energy consumption will still include fossil fuels.

Global electricity generation from renewable energy sources will reach 88% by 2040 and 100% by 2050 in the alternative scenarios. "New" renewables—mainly wind, solar and geothermal energy—will contribute 83% of the total electricity generated. The average annual investment required between 2015 and 2050, including costs for additional power plants to produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and for plant replacement, will be around $1.4 trillion.

Shifts from domestic aviation to rail and from road to rail are needed. Passenger car use must decrease in the OECD countries (but increase in developing world regions) after 2020. The passenger car use decline will be partly compensated by strong increase in public transport rail and bus systems.

CO₂ emission can reduce from 32 Gt in 2015 to 7 Gt (+2.0 Scenario) or 2.7 Gt (+1.5 Scenario) in 2040, and to zero in 2050.