Lably
Skip to content

2017–18 North American winter

  • 27 min read
  • 5 chapters

Related on Lably

Through North America and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

While there is no well-agreed-upon date used to indicate the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, there are two definitions of winter which may be used. Based on the astronomical definition, winter began at the winter solstice, which in 2017 occurred on December 21, and ends at the March equinox, which in 2018 occurred on March 20. Based on the meteorological definition, the first day of winter is December 1 and the last day February 28. Each definition involves a period of approximately three months, with some variability with both definitions containing two months and a week. Winter is often defined by meteorologists to be the three calendar months with the lowest average temperatures. Since both definitions span the calendar year, it is possible to have a winter storm in two different years.

Seasonal forecasts

On October 19, 2017, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center released its U.S. Winter Outlook. The outlook noted a 55–65% chance that a La Niña would develop. According to CPC Deputy Director Mike Halpert, any such La Niña was expected to be "weak and potentially short-lived", but it could still affect the season. He also noted that La Niña years normally result in colder-than-average, wetter winters in the northern tier of the United States and the inverse conditions across the south. In terms of precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions were favored across the majority of the northern United States, including a region spanning from the northern Rocky Mountains to the eastern Great Lakes in addition to the Ohio Valley, Hawaii, and western and northern Alaska. Drier conditions were anticipated across the entire southern United States.

Above-average temperatures were favored across the southern two-thirds of the contiguous United States and along the east coast, as well as in Hawaii and the northern and western parts of Alaska. The outlook favored below-average temperatures in the northern tier, from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest region as well as southeastern Alaska.

The remainder of the country was assigned equal chances of either above or below-normal temperatures or precipitation. The drought outlook noted that drought was likely to remain in parts of the northern Plains, with recovery likely to the west. The development of limited regions of drought was possible in regions that did not receive rainfall associated with tropical systems during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

Sign in to keep reading

4 more chapters are free with a Lably account.

More in Earth science