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2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season . The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sus
MarioProtIV · Public domain

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Through Atlantic Ocean, Portugal and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Although several tropical cyclones impacted land, only a few left extensive damage. In mid-September, Hurricane Florence produced disastrous flooding in North Carolina and South Carolina, with damage totaling about $24 billion. The storm also caused 54 deaths. About a month later, Hurricane Michael, the first tropical cyclone to strike the United States as a Category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, left extensive damage in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Michael caused approximately $25 billion in damage and at least 64 deaths. Since Michael reached Category 5 status, 2018 became the third consecutive season to feature at least one Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Leslie resulted in the first tropical storm warning being issued for the Madeira region of Portugal. Leslie and its remnants left hundreds of thousands of power outages and downed at least 1,000 trees in the Portuguese mainland, while heavy rains generated by the remains of the cyclone caused 15 deaths in France. The storm left approximately $500 million in damage and 16 fatalities.

Most forecasting groups called for a below-average season due to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the anticipated development of an El Niño. However, the anticipated El Niño failed to develop in time to suppress activity, and despite the aforementioned cooler sea temperatures, activity exceeded most predictions.


Seasonal forecasts

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes will form during a season or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed; therefore, long-lived storms and particularly strong systems result in high levels of ACE. The measure is calculated at full advisories for cyclones at tropical storm strength—storms with winds in excess of 39 mph (63 km/h).

Pre-season outlooks

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7, 2017, which predicted a slightly above-average season for 2018, with a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On April 5, 2018, CSU released its forecast, predicting a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. TSR released its second forecast on the same day, predicting a slightly-below average hurricane season, with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, the reduction in both the number and size of storms compared to its first forecast being due to recent anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic. Several days later, on April 16, North Carolina State University released its predictions, forecasting an above-average season, with 14–18 named storms, 7–11 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes. On April 19, The Weather Company (TWC) released its first forecasts, predicting 2018 to be a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

TWC revised their forecast slightly on May 17, instead projecting 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes in their May 17 outlook. On May 24, NOAA released their first forecasts, calling for a near to above average season in 2018. On May 25, the UK Met Office released their prediction, predicting 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of approximately 105 units. In contrast, on May 30, TSR released their updated prediction, significantly reducing their numbers to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, citing a sea surface temperature setup analogous of those observed during the cool phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. On May 31, one day before the season officially began, CSU updated their forecast to include Tropical Storm Alberto, also decreasing their numbers due to anomalous cooling in the tropical and far northern Atlantic.

Mid-season outlooks

On July 2, CSU updated their forecast once more, lowering their numbers again to 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, citing the continued cooling in the Atlantic and an increasing chance of El Niño forming later in the year. TSR released their fourth forecast on July 5, retaining the same numbers as their previous forecast. On August 2, CSU updated their forecast again, increasing their numbers to 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, citing the increasing chance of a weak El Niño forming later in the year. Four days later, TSR issued their final forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and only one major hurricane, with the reason of having two unexpected hurricanes forming by the beginning of July. On August 9, 2018, NOAA revised its predictions, forecasting a below-average season with 9–13 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for all of the 2018 season.

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