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Cross-entropy method

Monte Carlo method for importance sampling and optimization

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Through Mathematical optimization, Probability distribution and Normal distribution

The method approximates the optimal importance sampling estimator by repeating two phases:

  1. Draw a sample from a probability distribution.
  2. Minimize the cross-entropy between this distribution and a target distribution to produce a better sample in the next iteration.

Reuven Rubinstein developed the method in the context of rare-event simulation, where tiny probabilities must be estimated, for example in network reliability analysis, queueing models, or performance analysis of telecommunication systems. The method has also been applied to the traveling salesman, quadratic assignment, DNA sequence alignment, max-cut and buffer allocation problems.

Estimation via importance sampling

Consider the general problem of estimating the quantity

ℓ=Eu[H(X)]=∫H(x)f(x;u)dx,

where H is some performance function and f(x;u) is a member of some parametric family of distributions. Using importance sampling this quantity can be estimated as

ℓ^=1N∑i=1NH(Xi)f(Xi;u)g(Xi),

where X1,…,XN is a random sample from g. For positive H, the theoretically optimal importance sampling density (PDF) is given by

g∗(x)=H(x)f(x;u)/ℓ.

This, however, depends on the unknown ℓ. The CE method aims to approximate the optimal PDF by adaptively selecting members of the parametric family that are closest (in the Kullback–Leibler sense) to the optimal PDF g∗.

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