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Cyclone Nargis

North Indian Ocean cyclone in 2008

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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, seen from MODIS on the Aqua satellite at 0645Z May 2 near landfall on Myanmar
NASA · Public domain

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The first named storm of the 2008 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Nargis developed on 27 April in the central area of Bay of Bengal. Initially, the storm tracked slowly northwestward, and encountering favourable conditions, it quickly strengthened. Dry air weakened the cyclone on 29 April, though after beginning a steady eastward motion, Nargis rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of at least 165 km/h (105 mph) on 2 May, according to IMD observations; the JTWC assessed peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph), making it a weak Category 4 cyclone on the SSHWS. The cyclone moved ashore in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar at peak intensity and, after passing near the major city of Yangon (Rangoon), the storm gradually weakened until dissipating near the border of Myanmar and Thailand.

Nargis is the deadliest named cyclone in the North Indian Ocean Basin on record, as well as the deadliest named cyclone ever recorded. Including unnamed storms like the 1970 Bhola cyclone, Nargis is the fifth-deadliest cyclone to ever been recorded worldwide, but an uncertainty between the deaths caused by Nargis and those caused by other cyclones (like the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone), could put Nargis as the fourth-deadliest or higher, because the exact death toll is uncertain. It was also the 3rd deadliest natural disaster of the decade. Nargis was the first tropical cyclone to strike the country since Cyclone Mala made landfall in 2006, which was slightly stronger, but had a significantly lower impact. According to reports, Indian authorities had warned Myanmar about the danger that Cyclone Nargis posed 48 hours before it hit the country's coast.

Relief efforts were slowed for political reasons as Myanmar's military rulers initially resisted large-scale international aid. US President George W. Bush said that an angry world should condemn the way Myanmar's military rulers were handling the aftermath of such a catastrophic cyclone. Myanmar's military junta finally accepted aid a few days after India's request was accepted.

Hampering the relief efforts, only ten days after the cyclone, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake occurred nearby and measured 7.9 in magnitude, taking 87,476 lives and causing US$150 billion in damage in the process, making it the costliest disaster in Chinese history and fourth-costliest disaster ever known. Furthermore, some donated aid items were found to be available in the country's black market, and Myanmar's junta warned on 15 May that legal action would be taken against people who traded or hoarded international aid.

Meteorological history

Towards the end of April 2008, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the Indian Ocean became very active, with a tropical disturbance developing under its influence during 25 April. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance gradually developed further within an area of low vertical wind shear, before it was classified as a depression by the India Meteorological Department early on 27 April. Initially, the depression moved westward and was classified as a deep depression by the IMD, before the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories and classified the storm as Tropical Cyclone 01B later that day. The system subsequently started to move north-westwards under the steering influence of an anticyclone and an upper-level ridge of high pressure. At 0000 UTC, 5:30 AM Indian Standard Time, on 28 April, the IMD upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Nargis, while it was located about 550 km (340 mi) east of Chennai, India.

On 28 April, Nargis became nearly stationary, while situated between high-pressure ridges to its northwest and southeast. That same day, the JTWC upgraded the storm to cyclone status, the equivalent of a minimal Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. Around the same time, the IMD upgraded Nargis to a severe cyclonic storm. The cyclone developed a concentric eye feature, which is an eyewall outside another eyewall, with warm waters aiding in further intensification. Early on 29 April, the JTWC estimated Nargis reached winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), and at the same time, the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm. Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India. Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganised and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast, around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast. The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical storm status. By late on 29 April, convection had begun to rebuild, though immediate restrengthening was prevented by increased wind shear.

On 1 May 2008, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow aided by an approaching upper-level trough. Strengthening continued as Nargis developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 km (12 mi), and early on 2 May, the JTWC estimated that the cyclone reached peak 1-minute winds of 215 km/h (135 mph), as it approached the coast of Myanmar, making it a Category 4 storm. At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak 3-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph). Around 1200 UTC on 2 May, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar at peak strength. The storm gradually weakened as it proceeded east over Myanmar, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph). Early on 3 May, the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm. Nargis quickly weakened after turning to the northeast, toward the rugged terrain near the Myanmar–Thailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis.

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