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Demographics of Mexico

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Population Pyramid of Mexico in 2025
SamuelGeorge123 · CC BY 4.0

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Through Demography, Indigenous peoples and Life expectancy

Demographic censuses are performed by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. The National Population Council (CONAPO) is an institution under the Ministry of Interior in charge of the analysis and research of population dynamics. The National Institute of Indigenous Peoples also undertakes research and analysis of the sociodemographic and linguistic indicators of the indigenous peoples. Throughout most of the 20th century Mexico's population was characterized by rapid growth. Although this tendency has been reversed and average annual population growth over the last five years was less than 1%, the demographic transition is still in progress; Mexico still has a large youth cohort.

Demographic dynamics

Estimates vary for the Pre-Columbian population of Mexico from 1.5 million to 21 million, but the most accepted figure is about 12 million people, including the population of the Aztec Empire which is estimated at 6 million people. In 1600, the population was estimated to have been around 1 to 2 million, having drastically declined due to disease and warfare following Spanish conquest. By 1700, the population was estimated to be around 4 million. In 1900, the Mexican population was 13.6 million.

During the period of economic prosperity that was dubbed by economists as the "Mexican Miracle", the government invested in efficient social programs that reduced the infant mortality rate and increased life expectancy. These measures jointly led to an intense demographic increase between 1930 and 1980.

Intense population growth in the northern states, especially along the US-Mexican border, changed the country's demographic profile in the second half of the 20th century, as the 1967 US-Mexico maquiladora agreement through which all products manufactured in the border cities could be imported duty-free to the US. Since the adoption of NAFTA in 1994, which allows all products to be imported duty-free regardless of their place of origin within Mexico, the non-border maquiladora share of exports has increased while that of border cities has decreased. This has led to decentralization and rapid economic growth in Mexican states (and cities), such as Quintana Roo (Cancun), Baja California Sur (La Paz), Nuevo León (Monterrey), Querétaro, and Aguascalientes whose population grew by more than one-third from 2000 to 2015, while the whole of Mexico grew by 22.6% in this period.

The national annual growth rate was still positive (1.0%) in the early years of the 2000s. The national net migration rate was negative (-4.75/1000 inhabitants). In the 2010s, the net migration rate reached 0, given the strong economy of Mexico, changes in US Immigration Policy & Enforcement, US Legislative and CFR-8 decisions, plus the slowly recovering US economy, causing many of its former residents to return. Given the former strong flow of immigrants to the United States. an estimated 5.3 million undocumented Mexican immigrants lived in the United States in 2004. In the 2000 census, 18.2 million American citizens declared having Mexican ancestry.

The population's annual growth rate has been reduced from a 3.5% peak in 1965 to 0.99% in 2005. While Mexico is now transitioning to the third phase of demographic transition, close to 50% of the population in 2009 was 25 years old or younger. Fertility rates have also decreased from 5.7 children per woman in 1976 to 1.9 in 2020. After decades of the gap narrowing, in 2020 the fertility rate in Mexico fell below the United States for the first time falling 22% in 2020 and a further 10.5% in the first half of 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Mexican government projects that the country's population will grow to about 123 million by 2042 and then start declining slowly. Assumptions underlying this projection include fertility stabilizing at 1.85 children per woman and continued high net emigration (slowly decreasing from 583,000 in 2005 to 393,000 in 2050).

Mexico is composed of 32 federal entities which include 31 states and Mexico City, the five most populous federal entities in 2020 were the State of Mexico (16.9 million), Mexico City (9.2 million), Jalisco (8.3 million), Veracruz (8.0 million) and Puebla (6.5 million), which collectively contain around 40% of the national population. The Greater Mexico City metro area, which includes Mexico City and adjacent municipalities of surrounding states, is the most populous in the country and is estimated to be the second most populous in the world (after Tokyo), according to the UN Urbanization Report.

The average annual population growth rate of Mexico City was 0.2%. The state with the lowest population growth rate over the same period was Michoacán (-0.1%), whereas the states with the highest population growth rates were Quintana Roo (4.7%) and Baja California Sur (3.4%), both of which are two of the least populous states and the last to be admitted to the Union in the 1970s. The average annual net migration rate of Mexico City over the same period was negative and the lowest of all political divisions of Mexico, whereas the states with the highest net migration rate were Quintana Roo (2.7), Baja California (1.8) and Baja California Sur (1.6).

UN estimates

In 2010, the population was 117,886,000, compared to 28,296,000 in 1950. The proportion of children below the age of 15 in 2010 was 30%. 64% of the population was between 15 and 65 years of age, and 6% was 65 years or older.

Note: Percentages may not add to exactly 100% due to rounding.

Structure of the population

Population by Sex and Age Group, 2010 census. Including an estimation of 1,334,585 people corresponding to 448,195 housing units without information of the occupants:

Population by Sex and Age Group, 2020 census. Including an estimation of 6,337,751 persons corresponding to 1,588,422 housing units without information of the occupants.:

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