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Disinformation attack

Coordinated dissemination of false information

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Through Misinformation, Confusion and Audience

According to a 2018 report by the European Commission, disinformation attacks can pose threats to democratic governance, by diminishing the legitimacy of the integrity of electoral processes. Disinformation attacks are used by and against governments, corporations, scientists, journalists, activists, and other private individuals. These attacks are commonly employed to reshape attitudes and beliefs, drive a particular agenda, or elicit certain actions from a target audience. Tactics include circulating incorrect or misleading information, creating uncertainty, and undermining the legitimacy of official information sources.

An emerging area of disinformation research focuses on the countermeasures to disinformation attacks. Technologically, defensive measures include machine learning applications and blockchain technologies that can flag disinformation on digital platforms. Socially, educational programs are being developed to teach people how to better discern between facts and disinformation online. Journalists publish recommendations for assessing sources. Commercially, revisions to algorithms, advertising, and influencer practices on digital platforms are proposed. Individual interventions include actions that can be taken by individuals to improve their own skills in dealing with information (e.g., media literacy), and individual actions to challenge disinformation.

Goals

Disinformation attacks involve the intentional spreading of false information, with end goals of misleading, confusing, and encouraging violence, and gaining money, power, or reputation. Disinformation attacks may involve political, economic, and individual actors. They may attempt to influence attitudes and beliefs, drive a specific agenda, get people to act in specific ways, or destroy credibility of individuals or institutions. The presentation of incorrect information may be the most obvious part of a disinformation attack, but it is not the only purpose. The creation of uncertainty and the undermining of both correct information and the credibility of information sources are often intended as well.

Convincing people to believe incorrect information

If individuals can be convinced of something that is factually incorrect, they may make decisions that will run counter to the best interests of themselves and those around them. If the majority of people in a society can be convinced of something that is factually incorrect, the misinformation may lead to political and social decisions that are not in the best interest of that society. This can have serious impacts at both individual and societal levels.

In the 1990s, a British doctor who held a patent on a single-shot measles vaccine promoted distrust of combined MMR vaccine. His fraudulent claims were meant to promote sales of his own vaccine. The subsequent media frenzy increased fear and many parents chose not to immunize their children. This was followed by a significant increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths that would have been preventable by the MMR vaccine. It also led to the expenditure of substantial money on follow-up research that tested the assertions made in the disinformation, and on public information campaigns attempting to correct the disinformation. The fraudulent claim continues to be referenced and to increase vaccine hesitancy.

In the case of the 2020 United States presidential election, disinformation was used in an attempt to convince people to believe something that was not true and change the outcome of the election. Repeated disinformation messages about the possibility of election fraud were introduced years before the actual election occurred, as early as 2016. Researchers found that much of the fake news originated in domestic right-wing groups. The nonpartisan Election Integrity Partnership reported prior to the election that "What we're seeing right now are essentially seeds being planted, dozens of seeds each day, of false stories... They're all being planted such that they could be cited and reactivated ... after the election." Groundwork was laid through multiple and repeated disinformation attacks for claims that voting was unfair and to delegitimize the results of the election once it occurred. Although the 2020 United States presidential election results were upheld, some people still believe the "big lie".

People who get information from a variety of news sources, not just sources from a particular viewpoint, are more likely to detect disinformation. Tips for detecting disinformation include reading reputable news sources at a local or national level, rather than relying on social media. Beware of sensational headlines that are intended to attract attention and arouse emotion. Fact-check information broadly, not just on one usual platform or among friends. Check the original source of the information. Ask what was really said, who said it, and when. Consider possible agendas or conflicts of interest on the part of the speaker or those passing along the information.

Undermining correct information

Sometimes undermining belief in correct information is a more important goal of disinformation than convincing people to hold a new belief. In the case of combined MMR vaccines, disinformation was originally intended to convince people of a specific fraudulent claim and by doing so promote sales of a competing product. However, the impact of the disinformation became much broader. The fear that one type of vaccine might pose a danger fueled general fears that vaccines might pose a risk. Rather than convincing people to choose one product over another, belief in a whole area of medical research was eroded.

Creation of uncertainty

There is widespread agreement that disinformation is spreading confusion. This is not just a side effect; confusing and overwhelming people is an intentional objective. Whether disinformation attacks are used against political opponents or "commercially inconvenient science", they sow doubt and uncertainty as a way of undermining support for an opposing position and preventing effective action.

A 2016 paper describes social media-driven political disinformation tactics as a "firehose of falsehood" that "entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience." Four characteristics were illustrated with respect to Russian propaganda. Disinformation is used in a way that is 1) high-volume and multichannel 2) continuous and repetitive 3) ignores objective reality and 4) ignores consistency. It becomes effective by creating confusion and obscuring, disrupting and diminishing the truth. When one falsehood is exposed, "the propagandists will discard it and move on to a new (though not necessarily more plausible) explanation." The purpose is not to convince people of a specific narrative, but to "Deny, deflect, distract".

Countering this is difficult, in part because "It takes less time to make up facts than it does to verify them." There is evidence that false information "cascades" travel farther, faster, and more broadly than truthful information, perhaps due to novelty and emotional loading. Trying to fight a many-headed hydra of disinformation may be less effective than raising awareness of how disinformation works and how to identify it, before an attack occurs. For example, Ukraine was able to warm citizens and journalists about the potential use of state-sponsored deepfakes in advance of an actual attack, which likely slowed its spread.

Another way to counter disinformation is to focus on identifying and countering its real objective. For example, if disinformation is trying to discourage voters, find ways to empower voters and elevate authoritative information about when, where and how to vote. If claims of voter fraud are being put forward, provide clear messaging about how the voting process occurs, and refer people back to reputable sources that can address their concerns.

Undermining of trust

Disinformation involves more than just a competition between inaccurate and accurate information. Disinformation, rumors and conspiracy theories call into question underlying trust at multiple levels. Undermining of trust can be directed at scientists, governments and media and have very real consequences. Public trust in science is essential to the work of policymakers and to good governance, particularly for issues in medicine, public health, and the environmental sciences. It is essential that individuals, organizations and governments have access to accurate information when making decisions.

An example is disinformation around COVID-19 vaccines. Disinformation has targeted the products themselves, the researchers and organizations who develop them, the healthcare professionals and organizations who administer them, and the policy-makers that have supported their development and advised their use. Countries where citizens had higher levels of trust in society and government appear to have mobilized more effectively against the virus, as measured by slower virus spread and lower mortality rates.

Studies of people's beliefs about the amount of disinformation and misinformation in the news media suggest that distrust of traditional news media tends to be associated with reliance on alternate information sources such as social media. Structural support for press freedoms, a stronger independent press, and evidence of the credibility and honesty of the press can help to restore trust in traditional media as a provider of independent, honest, and transparent information.

Undermining of credibility

A major tactic of disinformation is to attack and attempt to undermine the credibility of people and organizations who are in a position to oppose the disinformation narrative due to their research or position of authority. This can include politicians, government officials, scientists, journalists, activists, human rights defenders and others.

For example, a New Yorker report in 2023 revealed details about the campaign run by the UAE, under which the Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed paid millions of euros to a Swiss businessman, Mario Brero, for "dark PR" against their targets. Brero and his company Alp Services used the UAE money to create damning Wikipedia entries and publish propaganda articles against Qatar and those with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Targets included the company Lord Energy, which eventually declared bankruptcy following unproven allegations of links to terrorism. Alp was also paid by the UAE to publish 100 propaganda articles a year against Qatar.

Disinformation attacks on scientists and science, including attacks funded by the tobacco and fossil fuels industries, have been painstakingly documented in books such as Merchants of Doubt, Doubt Is Their Product, and The Triumph of Doubt: Dark Money and the Science of Deception (2020). While scientists, doctors and teachers are considered the most trustworthy professionals globally scientists are concerned about whether confidence in science has decreased. Sudip Parikh, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in 2022 is quoted as saying "We now have a significant minority of the population that's hostile to the scientific enterprise... We're going to have to work hard to regain trust." That said, at the same time that disinformation poses a threat, the widespread use of social media by scientists offers an unprecedented opportunity for scientific communication and engagement between scientists and the public, with the potential to increase public knowledge.

The American Council on Science and Health has advice for scientists facing a disinformation campaign, and notes that disinformation campaigns often incorporate some elements of truth to make them more convincing. The five recommendations include identifying and acknowledging any parts of the story that are actually true; explaining why other parts are untrue, out of context or manipulated; calling out motivations that may be behind the disinformation, such as financial interests or power; preparing an "accusation audit" in anticipation of further attacks; and maintaining calm and self-control. Others recommend educating oneself about the platforms one uses and the privacy tools that platforms offer to protect personal information and to mute, block, and report online participants. Disinformers and online trolls are unlikely to engage in reasoned discussion or interact in good faith, and responding to them is rarely useful.

Studies clearly document the harassment of scientists, personally and in terms of scientific credibility. In 2021, a Nature survey reported that nearly 60% of scientists who had made public statements about COVID-19 had their credibility attacked. Attacks disproportionately affected those in nondominant identity groups such as women, transgender people, and people of color. A highly visible example is Anthony S. Fauci. He is deeply respected nationally and internationally as an expert on infectious diseases. He also has been subjected to intimidation, harassment and death threats fueled by disinformation attacks and conspiracy theories. Despite those experiences, Fauci encourages early-career scientists "not to be deterred, because the satisfaction and the degree of contribution you can make to society by getting into public service and public health is immeasurable."

Undermining of collective action including voting

Individual decisions, like whether or not to smoke, are major targets for disinformation. So are policymaking processes such as the formation of public health policy, the recommendation and adoption of policy measures, and the acceptance or regulation of processes and products. Public opinion and policy interact: public opinion and the popularity of public health measures can strongly influence government policy and the creation and enforcement of industry standards. Disinformation attempts to undermine public opinion and prevent the organization of collection actions, including policy debates, government action, regulation and litigation.

An important type of collective activity is the act of voting. In the 2017 Kenyan general election, 87% of Kenyans surveyed reported encountering disinformation before the August election, and 35% reported being unable to make an informed voting decision as a result. Disinformation campaigns often target specific groups such as black or Latino voters to discourage voting and civic engagement. Fake accounts and bots are used to amplify uncertainty about whether voting really matters, whether voters are "appreciated", and whose interests politicians care about. Microtargeting can present messages precisely designed for a chosen population, while geofencing can pinpoint people based on where they go, like churchgoers. In some cases, voter suppression attacks have circulated incorrect information about where and when to vote. During the 2020 U.S. Democratic primaries, disinformation narratives arose around the use of masks and the use of mail-in ballots, relating to whether and how people would vote.

Undermining of functional government

Disinformation strikes at the foundation of democratic government: "the idea that the truth is knowable and that citizens can discern and use it to govern themselves." Disinformation campaigns are designed by both foreign and domestic actors to gain political and economic advantage. The undermining of functional government weakens the rule of law and can enable both foreign and domestic actors to profit politically and economically. At home and abroad, the goal is to weaken opponents. Elections are an especially critical target, but the day-to-day ability to govern is also undermined.

The Oxford Internet Institute at Oxford University reports that in 2020, organized social media manipulation campaigns were active in 81 countries, an increase from 70 countries in 2019. 76 of those countries used disinformation attacks. The report describes disinformation as being produced globally "on an industrial scale".

A Russian operation known as the Internet Research Agency (IRA) spent thousands on social media ads to influence the 2016 United States presidential election, confuse the public on key political issues and sow discord. These political ads leveraged user data to micro-target certain populations and spread misleading information, with an end goal of exacerbating polarization and eroding public trust in political institutions. The Computational Propaganda Project at the Oxford Internet Institute found that the IRA's ads specifically sought to sow mistrust towards the U.S. government among Mexican Americans and discourage voter turnout among African Americans.

An examination of twitter activity prior to the 2017 French presidential election indicates that 73% of the disinformation flagged by Le Monde was traceable to two political communities: one associated with François Fillon (right-wing, with 50.75% of the fake link shares) and another with Marine Le Pen (extreme-right wing, 22.21%). 6% of accounts in the Fillon community and 5% of the Le Pen community were early spreaders of disinformation. Debunking of the disinformation came from other communities, and was most often related to Emmanuel Macron (39.18% of debunks) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (14% of debunks).

Another analysis, of the 2017 #MacronLeaks disinformation campaign, illustrates frequent patterns of election-related disinformation campaigns. Such campaigns often peak 1–2 days before an election. The scale of a campaign like #MacronLeaks can be comparable to the volume of regular discussion in that time period, suggesting that it can obtain considerable collective attention. About 18 percent of the users involved in #MacronLeaks were identifiable as bots. Spikes in bot content tended to occur slightly ahead of spikes in human-created content, suggesting bots were able to trigger cascades of disinformation. Some bot accounts showed a pattern of previous use: creation shortly before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, brief usage then, and no further activity until early May 2017, prior to the French election. Alt-right media personalities including Britain's Paul Joseph Watson and American Jack Posobiec prominently shared MacronLeaks content prior to the French election. Experts worry that disinformation attacks will increasingly be used to influence national elections and democratic processes.

In A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on Democracy (2020) Nancy L. Rosenblum and Russell Muirhead examine the history and psychology of conspiracy theories and the ways in which they are used to de-legitimize the political system. They distinguish between classical conspiracy theory in which actual issues and events (such as the assassination of John F. Kennedy) are examined and combined to create a theory, and a new form of "conspiracism without theory" that relies on repeating false statements and hearsay without factual grounding.

Such disinformation exploits human bias towards accepting new information. Humans constantly share information and rely on others to provide information they cannot verify for themselves. Much of that information will be true, whether they ask if it is cold outside or cold in Antarctica. As a result, they tend to believe what they hear. Studies show an "illusory truth effect": the more often people hear a claim, the more likely they are to consider it true. This is the case even when people identify a statement as false the first time they see it; they are likely to rank the probability that it is true higher after multiple exposures. Social media is particularly dangerous as a source of disinformation because robots and multiple fake accounts are used to repeat and magnify the impact of false statements. Algorithms track what users click on and recommend content similar to what users have chosen, creating confirmation bias and filter bubbles. In more tightly focused communities an echo chamber effect is enhanced.

Autocrats have employed domestic voter disinformation attacks to cover up electoral corruption. Voter disinformation can include public statements that assert local electoral processes are legitimate and statements that discredit electoral monitors. Public-relations firms may be hired to execute specialized disinformation campaigns, including media advertisements and behind-the-scenes lobbying, to push the narrative of an honest and democratic election. Independent monitoring of the electoral process is essential to combatting electoral disinformation. Monitoring can include both citizen election monitors and international observers, as long as they are credible. Norms for accurate characterization of elections are based on ethical principles, effective methodologies, and impartial analysis. Democratic norms emphasize the importance of open electoral data, the free exercise of political rights, and protection for human rights.

Increasing polarization and legitimizing violence

Disinformation attacks can increase political polarization and alter public discourse. Foreign manipulation campaigns may attempt to amplify extreme positions and weaken a target society, while domestic actors may try to demonize political opponents. States with highly polarized political landscapes and low public trust in local media and government are particularly vulnerable to disinformation attacks.

There is concern that Russia will employ disinformation, propaganda, and intimidation to destabilize NATO members, such as the Baltic states and coerce them into accepting Russian narratives and agendas. During the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2014, Russia combined traditional combat warfare with disinformation attacks in a form of hybrid warfare in its offensive strategy, to sow doubt and confusion among enemy populations and intimidate adversaries, erode public trust in Ukrainian institutions, and boost Russia's reputation and legitimacy. Since escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War with the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia's pattern of disinformation has been described by CBC News as "Deny, deflect, distract".

Thousands of stories have been debunked, including doctored photographs and deepfakes. At least 20 main "themes" are being promoted by Russia propaganda, targeting audiences far beyond Ukraine and Russia. Many of these try to reinforce ideas that Ukraine is somehow Nazi-controlled, that its military forces are weak, and that damage and atrocities are due to Ukrainian, not Russian, actions. Many of the images they examine are shared on Telegraph. Government organizations and independent journalistic groups such as Bellingcat work to confirm or deny such reports, often using open-source data and sophisticated tools to identify where and when information has originated and whether claims are legitimate. Bellingcat works to provide an accurate account of events as they happen and to create a permanent, verified, longer-term record.

Fear-mongering and conspiracy theories are used to encourage polarization, to promote exclusionary narratives, and to legitimize hate speech and aggression. As has been painstakingly documented, the period leading up to the Holocaust was marked by repeated disinformation and increasing persecution by the Nazi government, culminating in the mass murder of 165,200 German Jews by a "genocidal state". Populations in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America today are considered to be at serious risk for human rights abuses. Changing conditions in the United States have also been identified as increasing risk factors for violence.

Elections are particularly tense political transition points, emotionally charged at any time, and increasingly targeted by disinformation. These conditions increase the risk of individual violence, civil unrest, and mass atrocities. Countries such as Kenya whose history has involved ethnic or election-related violence, foreign or domestic interference, and a high reliance on the use of social media for political discourse, are considered to be at higher risk. The United Nations Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes identifies elections as an atrocity risk indicator: disinformation can act as a threat multiplier for atrocity crime. Recognition of the seriousness of this problem is essential, to mobilize governments, civic society, and social media platforms to take steps to prevent both online and offline harm.

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