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Economy of Greece

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Through Mixed economy, Gross domestic product and European Union

The Greek economy was devastated by World War II (1939–1945), but expanded rapidly from 1950 to 1980 in what is commonly known as the Greek economic miracle. Greece also enjoyed a sustained period of growth rates above the EU average from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, peaking at 6.4% in 2006. The subsequent Great Recession and Greek government-debt crisis, a central focus of the wider euro area crisis, plunged the economy into a sharp downturn in the late 2000s and early 2010s. The tourism boom of recent years has helped drive a strong recovery, with Greece setting new records in arrivals (38 million) and revenue (€23.6 billion) in 2025 as one of the most visited countries in the world.

Significant Greek industries include tourism and shipping. The Greek merchant navy is the largest in the world, with Greek-owned vessels accounting for 21% of global deadweight tonnage as of 2021; the total capacity of the Greek-owned fleet has increased by 45.8% compared to 2014. Greece has the largest economy in Southeast Europe and contributes extensively to regional investment. Greece has free trade agreements with many nations and is a founding member of the OECD (1961), the European single market (1993) and the World Trade Organization (1995), among others.

History

The evolution of the Greek economy during the 19th century (a period that transformed a large part of the world because of the Industrial Revolution) has been little researched. Recent research from 2006 examines the gradual development of industry and further development of shipping in a predominantly agricultural economy, calculating an average rate of per capita GDP growth between 1833 and 1911 that was only slightly lower than that of the other Western European nations. Industrial activity, (including heavy industry like shipbuilding) was evident, mainly in Ermoupolis and Piraeus. Nonetheless, Greece faced economic hardships and defaulted on its external loans in 1843, 1860 and 1893.

Other studies support the above view on the general trends in the economy, providing comparative measures of standard of living. The per capita income (in purchasing power terms) of Greece was 65% that of France in 1850, 56% in 1890, 62% in 1938, 75% in 1980, 90% in 2007, 96.4% in 2008 and 97.9% in 2009.

During World War II, Greece experienced one of history's most extreme hyperinflation crises during the Axis occupation, peaking in November 1944 with monthly rates reaching roughly 13,800 percent.

The country's post-World War II development has largely been connected with the Greek economic miracle. During that period, Greece saw growth rates second only to those of Japan, while ranking first in Europe in terms of GDP growth. It is indicative that between 1960 and 1973 the Greek economy grew by an average of 7.7%, in contrast to 4.7% for the EU15 and 4.9% for the OECD. Also during that period, exports grew by an average annual rate of 12.6%.

Eurozone entry

Greece was accepted into the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union by the European Council on 19 June 2000, based on a number of criteria (inflation rate, budget deficit, public debt, long-term interest rates, exchange rate) using 1999 as the reference year. After an audit commissioned by the incoming New Democracy government in 2004, Eurostat revealed that the statistics for the budget deficit had been under-reported. However, even after all corrections that followed, the reference year budget deficit did not exceed the allowable upper limit (3%) according to the Eurostat accounting method in force at the time of application, and thus Greece had still met all critiera for Eurozone entry (details given below).

Most of the differences in the revised budget deficit numbers were due to a temporary change of accounting practices by the new government, i.e., recording expenses when military material was ordered rather than received. However, it was the retroactive application of ESA95 methodology (applied since 2000) by Eurostat, that finally raised the reference year (1999) budget deficit to 3.38% of GDP, thus exceeding the 3% limit. This led to claims that Greece (similar claims have been made about other European countries like Italy) had not actually met all five accession criteria, and the common perception that Greece entered the Eurozone through "falsified" deficit numbers.

In the 2005 OECD report for Greece, it was clearly stated that "the impact of new accounting rules on the fiscal figures for the years 1997 to 1999 ranged from 0.7 to 1 percentage point of GDP; this retroactive change of methodology was responsible for the revised deficit exceeding 3% in 1999, the year of [Greece's] EMU membership qualification". The above led the Greek minister of finance to clarify that the 1999 budget deficit was below the prescribed 3% limit when calculated with the ESA79 methodology in force at the time of Greece's application, and thus the criteria had been met.

The original accounting practice for military expenses was later restored in line with Eurostat recommendations, theoretically lowering even the ESA95-calculated 1999 Greek budget deficit to below 3% (an official Eurostat calculation is still pending for 1999).

An error sometimes made is the confusion of discussion regarding Greece's Eurozone entry with the controversy regarding usage of derivatives' deals with U.S. Banks by Greece and other Eurozone countries to artificially reduce their reported budget deficits. A currency swap arranged with Goldman Sachs allowed Greece to "hide" 2.8 billion Euros of debt, however, this affected deficit values after 2001 (when Greece had already been admitted into the Eurozone) and is not related to Greece's Eurozone entry.

A study of the period 1999–2009 by forensic accountants has found that data submitted to Eurostat by Greece, among other countries, had a statistical distribution indicative of manipulation; "Greece with a mean value of 17.74, shows the largest deviation from Benford's law among the members of the eurozone, followed by Belgium with a value of 17.21 and Austria with a value of 15.25".

2010–2018 government debt crisis

Historical Debt

Greece, like other European nations, had faced debt crises in the 19th century, as well as a similar crisis in 1932 during the Great Depression. In general, however, during the 20th century it enjoyed one of the highest GDP growth rates on the planet (for a quarter century from the early 1950s to mid 1970s, second in the world after Japan). Average Greek government debt-to-GDP for the entire century before the crisis (1909–2008) was lower than that for the UK, Canada, or France, while for the 30-year period (1952–1981) until entrance into the European Economic Community, the Greek government debt-to-GDP ratio averaged only 19.8%.

Between 1981 and 1993 Greece's government debt-to-GDP ratio steadily rose, surpassing the average of what is today the Eurozone in the mid-1980s (see chart right). For the next 15 years, from 1993 to 2007 (i.e., before the 2008 financial crisis), Greece's government debt-to-GDP ratio remained roughly unchanged (the value was not affected by the 2004 Athens Olympics), averaging 102% - a value lower than that for Italy (107%) and Belgium (110%) during the same 15-year period, and comparable to that for the U.S. or the OECD average in 2017.

During the latter period, the country's annual budget deficit usually exceeded 3% of GDP, but its effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio was counterbalanced by high GDP growth rates. The debt-to-GDP values for 2006 and 2007 (about 105%) were established after audits resulted in corrections according to Eurostat methodology, of up to 10 percentage points for the particular years (as well as similar corrections for the years 2008 and 2009). These corrections, although altering the debt level by a maximum of about 10%, resulted in a popular notion that "Greece was previously hiding its debt".

Evolution of the debt crisis

The Greek crisis was triggered by the turmoil of the Great Recession, which led the budget deficits of several Western nations to reach or exceed 10% of GDP. In Greece's case, the high budget deficit (which, after several corrections, was revealed that it had been allowed to reach 10.2% and 15.1% of GDP in 2008 and 2009, respectively) was coupled with a high public debt to GDP ratio (which, until then, was relatively stable for several years, at just above 100% of GDP - as calculated after all corrections). Thus, the country appeared to lose control of its public debt to GDP ratio, which already reached 127% of GDP in 2009. In addition, being a member of the Eurozone, the country had essentially no autonomous monetary policy flexibility. Finally, there was an effect of controversies about Greek statistics (due the aforementioned drastic budget deficit revisions which lead to an increase in the calculated value of the Greek public debt by about 10%, i.e., a public debt to GDP of about 100% until 2007), while there have been arguments about a possible effect of media reports. Consequently, Greece was "punished" by the markets which increased borrowing rates, making impossible for the country to finance its debt since early 2010, exacerbating the euro area crisis.

The Greek economy faced its most-severe crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1974 as the Greek government revised its deficit forecasts from 3.7% in early 2009 and 6% in September 2009, to 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in October 2009.

The aforementioned budget deficit and debt revisions were connected with findings that, through the assistance of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and numerous other banks, financial products were developed which enabled the governments of Greece, Italy and many other European countries to hide parts of their borrowing. Dozens of similar agreements were concluded across Europe whereby banks supplied cash in advance in exchange for future payments by the governments involved; in turn, the liabilities of the involved countries were "kept off the books".

According to Der Spiegel, credits given to European governments were disguised as "swaps" and consequently did not get registered as debt because Eurostat at the time ignored statistics involving financial derivatives. A German derivatives dealer had commented to Der Spiegel that "The Maastricht rules can be circumvented quite legally through swaps," and "In previous years, Italy used a similar trick to mask its true debt with the help of a different US bank." These conditions had enabled Greek as well as many other European governments to spend beyond their means, while meeting the deficit targets of the European Union and the monetary union guidelines. In May 2010, the Greek government deficit was again revised and estimated to be 13.6% which was among the highest relative to GDP, with Iceland in first place at 15.7% and the United Kingdom third with 12.6%. Public debt was forecast, according to some estimates, to hit 120% of GDP during 2010.

As a consequence, there was a crisis in international confidence in Greece's ability to repay its sovereign debt, as reflected by the rise of the country's borrowing rates (although their slow rise – the 10-year government bond yield only exceeded 7% in April 2010 – coinciding with a large number of negative articles, has led to arguments about the role of international news media in the evolution of the crisis). In order to avert a default (as high borrowing rates effectively prohibited access to the markets), in May 2010 the other Eurozone countries, and the IMF, agreed to a "rescue package" which involved giving Greece an immediate €45 billion in bail-out loans, with more funds to follow, totaling €110 billion. In order to secure the funding, Greece was required to adopt harsh austerity measures to bring its deficit under control. Their implementation was to be monitored and evaluated by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF.

The 2008 financial crisis – particularly the austerity package put forth by the EU and the IMF – has been met with anger by the Greek public, leading to riots and social unrest, while there have been theories about the effect of international media. Despite - others say because of - the long range of austerity measures, the government deficit has not been reduced accordingly, mainly, according to many economists, because of the subsequent recession.

Public sector workers have come out on strike in order to resist job cuts and reductions to salaries as the government promises that a large scale privatisation programme will be accelerated. Immigrants are sometimes treated as scapegoats for economic problems by far-right extremists.

In 2013, Greece became the first developed market whose stock market was reclassified as an emerging market by different financial rating companies, only starting to be reclassified back as a developed market, first by FTSE Russell in October 2025, followed by other rating companies.

By July 2014 there were still anger and protests about the austerity measures, with a 24-hour strike among government workers timed to coincide with an audit by inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and European Central Bank in advance of a decision on a second bailout of one billion euros ($1.36 billion), due in late July.

Greece exited its six-year recession in the second quarter of 2014, but the challenges of securing political stability and debt sustainability remained.

A third bailout was agreed in July 2015, after a confrontation with the newly elected leftist government of Alexis Tsipras. In June 2017, news reports indicated that the "crushing debt burden" had not been alleviated and that Greece was at the risk of defaulting on some payments. The International Monetary Fund stated that the country should be able to borrow again "in due course". At the time, the Euro zone gave Greece another credit of $9.5-billion, $8.5 billion of loans and brief details of a possible debt relief with the assistance of the IMF. On 13 July, the Greek government sent a letter of intent to the IMF with 21 commitments it promised to meet by June 2018. They included changes in labour laws, a plan to cap public sector work contracts, to transform temporary contracts into permanent agreements and to recalculate pension payments to reduce spending on social security.

Greece's bailouts successfully ended (as declared) on 20 August 2018.

In June 2026, Greece repaid a further €6.9 billions from its first bailout package ahead of schedule as part of a broader effort to improve its financial standing and reduce debt. This follows previous earlier repayments to EU creditors, as well as a full repayment of Greece’s loans to the International Monetary Fund two years ahead of schedule in 2022. The early debt repayments were seen as part of the country's remarkable recovery following the end of the crisis in 2018, further evidenced by dramatically reduced borrowing costs for the country, with its benchmark 10-year government bond yields falling below Italy's on November 8, 2019 and France's on November 29, 2024.

As a result of its improved finances, Greece is expected to have a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than Italy by the end of 2026, three years earlier than previously forecast. Noting that Greece was recording the fastest debt reduction in the world, the finance minister and Eurogroup president Kyriakos Pierrakakis said that the government aimed to reduce the debt burden below 120% of GDP by 2029.

Effects of the bailout programmes on the debt crisis

There was a 25% drop in Greece's GDP, connected with the bailout programmes. This had a critical effect: the Debt-to-GDP ratio, the key factor defining the severity of the crisis, would jump from its 2009 level of 127% to about 170%, solely due to the GDP drop (i.e., for the same Debt). Such a level is considered unsustainable. Reports show that, for government debt, the threshold for unhealthy Debt-to-GDPT ratio is around 85%. In a 2013 report, the IMF admitted that it had underestimated the effects of so extensive tax hikes and budget cuts on the country's GDP and issued an informal apology. In 2009, real GDP growth rates hit −4.1% with −5.7% in 2010, −9.9% in 2011, −8.3% in 2012 and −2.3% in 2013. In 2011, the country's government debt reached €356 billion (172% of nominal GDP). After negotiating the biggest debt restructuring in history with the private sector, which sustained losses in the order of €100 billion for private bond investors, Greece reduced its sovereign debt burden to €280 billion (137% of GDP) in the first quarter of 2012. Greece achieved a real GDP growth rate of 0.8% in 2014—after five consecutive years of economic decline—but the economy contracted by 0.2% in 2015 and recorded zero growth in 2016. The country returned to modest growth rates of 1.5% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019.

COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on all sectors of the economy, and tourism in particular. As a result, GDP contracted by 9.2% in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession. In June 2021, the European Commission agreed to disburse approximately €30 billion in COVID-related economic aid (€12 billion in loans and €18 billion in grants).

Post-COVID recovery

Greece has recovered significantly since the early 2020s, approaching its pre-crisis levels of economic output with growth rates well above the eurozone average: 8.7% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023, 2024 and 2025. On 20 August 2022, Greece formally exited the EU's "enhanced surveillance framework", which had been in place since the conclusion of the third bailout programme exactly four years earlier. On 2 December 2022, Berlin-based credit rating agency Scope assigned a positive outlook to Greece's BB+ rating, presaging the country's return to investment grade. On 31 July 2023, Greece's investment-grade status was restored by Japanese credit rating agency R&I. Scope, DBRS, S&P and Fitch followed suit on 4 August, 8 September, 20 October and 1 December 2023 respectively, but Moody's delayed doing so until 14 March 2025. The Economist ranked Greece the world's top economic performer for 2022 and 2023, citing significant improvements in five key economic and financial indicators.

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